If byelection trends are any indication, the Congress’ victory in the Mandi Lok Sabha seat and in three Assembly segments in byelections held in Himachal Pradesh early this year might signal the return of the Grand Old Party to power in Assembly elections to be held on November 12. The results will be declared on December 8.
Himachal Pradesh has a record of sorts of not electing the same party to power twice in a row, but the Congress appears to have an edge over the BJP. It may not, however, be a smooth run, not least because of internal rebellion, for the Congress. It holds only one (Mandi) of the State’s four Lok Sabha seats now.
The BJP has 44 seats in the 68-member Assembly, the Congress 21. The CPI(M) has one seat and independents have two. The Congress had a decent vote share in the last election— 41.7 per cent against the BJP’s 48.8 per cent. This time, there is a new player, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Each of these parties is contesting all 68 seats. The CPI(M) and the CPI are jointly contesting in 11.
AAP’s entry
The AAP’s promises in its manifesto, which the BJP has dismissed as “freebies”, are a talking point. Whether the AAP will actually secure seats is uncertain, but there is a fair chance of it cutting into the other two parties’ votes. The Congress, not being a cadre-based party, may take the bigger hit. The AAP lacks an organisational base and rural outreach, but it may be able to inflict damage in urban areas. The geographical proximity of Delhi and Punjab, where the AAP runs the government, and Haryana, where Arvind Kejriwal hails from, may help it.
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Rebellion in party ranks
The other important factor that can influence the outcome is the rebellion within the Congress and the BJP. The likelihood of many prominent faces contesting as independents cannot be ruled out. In the absence of a wave favouring a party, the presence of “independents” often provides an alternative to the electorate. Independents, if they have the clout and the heft plus a reasonably good reputation, have been seen to be capable of defeating big names in State elections.
The BJP seeks a comeback under Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur’s leadership. It also banks heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaigning; he has already held two rallies in the State. Union Ministers like Anurag Thakur will be campaigning, and so will party president J.P. Nadda, who has roots in the State.
BJP supporters in the nomination rally of Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, who will contest from Seraj constituency, on October 19. | Photo Credit: PTI
The Congress is yet to get into an aggressive campaign mode—no chief ministerial face, no major rallies. This is intriguing considering that the party has senior leaders like Anand Sharma who hail from the State. There had been stray reports that campaigning may pick up post Diwali and after Mallikarjun Kharge takes over formally as Congress president.
The absence of former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh, who passed away in July 2021, is keenly felt in the Congress. The nine-time legislator was the Congress’ face in the State; he led successful electoral battles and managed intra-party factionalism in his own way for almost three decades.
The political vacuum created by his demise is sought to be filled by his wife, Pratibha Singh, now MP from Mandi, and son Vikramaditya Singh, who is contesting from Shimla (rural). Pratibha Singh, who is also the Pradesh Congress Committee chief, is leading the campaign assisted by former party president Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu. Sukhwinder Sukhu, who has been made chairman of the Congress’ campaign committee in the State, is considered one of the frontrunners for the chief ministerial post if the Congress makes it past the halfway mark. The other contenders are Pratibha Singh and Mukesh Agnihotri, Congress Legislative Party leader.
The more serious issue plaguing both the BJP and the Congress is the open rebellion in their ranks. The BJP, which appears as vulnerable to internal bickering as the Congress, has not shown any hesitation about taking in Congress rebels. The AAP has also not been averse to welcoming turncoats. Since March there has been a literal exodus from the Congress to the BJP and the AAP. In August, two senior Congress legislators, Pawan Kumar Kajal, MLA from Kangra, and Lakhwinder Rana, MLA from Nalagarh, joined the BJP. Both will be contesting on the BJP ticket from their own seats.
The biggest blow was the loss of Harsh Mahajan, a former Cabinet Minister, to the BJP. When Pratibha Singh was made State Congress president in April, four “working presidents” were also appointed. Two of them, Pawan Kajal and Harsh Mahajan, are now with the BJP.
Another Congress heavyweight who left the party is former Speaker and seven-time legislator Gangu Ram Musafir, who had been made a senior vice president in April. He will contest as an independent from the Pacchad segment. He left because he was denied the ticket. Two other seasoned Congress leaders in Una district quit after being denied the ticket.
Three-time Congress legislator Rakesh Kalia, who represents Gagret, has joined the BJP. Former PCC chief Kuldeep Kumar declared that he would fight as an independent from Chintpurni.
The recent induction of five-time MLA Vijay Singh Mankotia in the BJP was another setback for the Congress. A known face in Himachal politics, the former Army man had earned a reputation for being outspoken and boisterous. The 82-year-old Mankotia also has a history of switching sides. He won in five of the nine elections he contested, thrice from the Congress, once as an independent and once from the Janata Dal. On one occasion, he contested from the Bahujan Samaj Party. In the 2017 Assembly election, he contested as an independent after being denied the Congress ticket. He lost.
J.P. Nadda himself welcomed Mankotia into the party at his home in Bilaspur, which Nadda represented twice in the Assembly. Like Harsh Mahajan, Mankotia will not contest; both are expected to campaign for the BJP.
The promises
There are limited opportunities for employment in Himachal Pradesh, which paradoxically has a high literacy rate. The issue has taken centre stage in this election. Most of the parties have promised to provide an unemployment allowance and revive the Old Pension Scheme (OPS), which was abolished by the first National Democratic Alliance government in 2003. Barring the BJP, all other parties have included the restoration of the OPS in their manifestos. Government employees, more than 2.25 lakh, constitute a major chunk of the electorate and can influence the result. There is resentment among government employees that the BJP has not committed itself to rolling back the market-linked New Pension Scheme.
The Aam Aadmi Party’s Pratham Rashtriya Jan Pratinidhi Sammelan in Delhi on September 18. The AAP’s entry into the electoral fray is expected to dent the vote shares of the Congress and the BJP. | Photo Credit: SUSHIL KUMAR VERMA
The AAP has promised subsidised electricity, free education, regularisation of teaching jobs, and health services on the lines of the Mohalla clinics in Delhi. These mid-August announcements were followed by another round of announcements in September, which included grants for panchayats and free pilgrimages for the elderly.
The Congress manifesto promises free electricity up to 300 units per household, mobile clinics, employment generation schemes like start-up funds for young people, and restoration of the OPS. The Left parties have promised to restore the OPS, regularise outsourced and contract jobs, introduce a special economic package, create employment in industries for local people, scrap the New Education Policy, roll back fee hikes, increase the wages and number of days of work under the MGNREGA and provide unemployment allowance of Rs.3,000.
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The BJP has said it will draft a manifesto after getting feedback from people. It claimed that the response in the form of suggestions had been overwhelming.
The election campaign in Himachal Pradesh will be around development issues. The scope for polarisation of any kind is limited, given the State’s demographic composition. The Union Cabinet in mid September conferred the Scheduled Tribe status to the Hatti community, inhabitants of the Trans-Giri area of Sirmaur district. The move probably reflects an awareness that the election will be a close contest and an apprehension of anti-incumbency. The Hatti community, numbering close to 1.6 lakh , has a presence in about nine Assembly segments.
The Crux
- Congress appears to have a slight advantage in Himachal Pradesh, which has a history of not electing the ruling party to power.
- However, the Congress is battling internal rebellion and is handling the consequences of an exodus of its leaders to the BJP and the AAP.
- The AAP is a new entrant in the fray in the State and is expected to cut into the votes of the BJP and the Congress even if it is not able to secure seats.
- The BJP, which faces a degree of anti-imcumbency, is not entirely free of the menace of internal dissensions.
- All parties are scrambling to offer sops in a State where polarisation does not usually work.
