As the Lok Sabha election entered its final stretch, there were indications of a change in the voting pattern in Bihar across the six completed phases and the seventh remaining phase. The dominant castes largely continue to be with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while Muslims and Yadavs as usual back the Mahagathbandhan. However, the EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) and Dalits could be moving away from the NDA, for which they voted overwhelmingly in the past.
The NDA, which won 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, comprises five parties in Bihar: BJP, Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)-Ram Vilas, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha, or RLM (earlier known as the RLSP). The Mahagathbandhan comprises the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), and the Left parties: CPI(M), CPI, and CPI(ML).
Fissures are becoming visible in the Lav-Kush (Kurmi-Koeri) unity. The Koeris, or Kushwahas, have warmed to the RJD, setting aside a history of Yadav-Koeri rivalry. Kurmis constitute 2.9 per cent of the State’s population, while Kushwahas constitute 3.5 per cent.
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According to the Bihar caste survey, EBCs constitute 36 per cent of the State’s population; Dalits, 14.6 per cent; Yadavs, 14.3 per cent; and Muslims, 17 per cent. This indicates that the RJD vote base accounts for over 30 per cent of the population. The LJP’s Chirag Paswan brings the votes of the Paswan or Dusadh community (5.3 per cent of the population) to the NDA.
JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar nurtured Kurmi-Koeri unity assiduously in the past. This group, along with the EBCs and dominant castes, formed a formidable support base for the NDA against the RJD’s Muslim-Yadav combine. Of the 11 Kushwaha candidates this time, three are from the JD(U): Santosh Kumar from Purnia, Sunil Kumar from Valmikinagar, and Vijaya Laxmi from Siwan. Then there is the RLM chief Upendra Kushwaha in Karakat. The INDIA bloc has seven candidates, three from the RJD, and one each from the CPI(M), the CPI(ML), the Congress, and the VIP.
According to Abhay Kumar, a senior journalist from Patna, the election was tepid in the beginning but soon turned into an aggressive caste contest. He explained: “There is a marked shift of Kushwaha votes from the NDA to the Mahagathbandhan, which could spell trouble for the NDA in a number of seats where it was sure of winning, such as Ujiarpur and Aurangabad. In some other places, too, it has become agda-pichchda [dominant caste vs backward caste]. The RJD seems to have capitalised on this shift. In the Sheohar seat, a chunk of Vaishyas, traditional voters of the BJP, could vote for the Mahagathbandan candidate Ritu Jaiswal, who is a Vaishya. In fact, there is no uniform pattern in this election and preferences change with the constituency.”
Kushwahas moving away from NDA
The BJP realised a while ago that the Kushwahas were looking at alternatives and made attempts to keep the community on its side. One move in this direction was appointing a Kushwaha leader, Samrat Choudhary, as its State chief in Bihar in March 2023.
Voters on their way to a polling booth in Muzaffarpur on May 20. | Photo Credit: PTI
In February this year, Choudhary, who was Deputy Chief Minister by then, attended an event in Nalanda where his rhetoric was aimed at stoking Kushwaha pride. Ironically, the event was organised to mark the birth anniversary of the “martyr” Jagdev, the “Lenin of Bihar” who had raised the banner of revolt against the Brahminical social hierarchy nearly five decades ago. The Kushwahas had opted for ultra-left politics and were organised under the Arjak Samaj led by Jagdev, who remains the community’s most popular leader even 48 years after his death.
Even a partial return of Kushwaha votes to the RJD can spell trouble for the NDA. The sudden entry of the Bhojpuri singer and BJP member Pawan Singh, a Rajput, as an Independent candidate in Karakat set off speculation that the BJP was backing Singh under pressure from Nitish Kumar, whose bitter relationship with Upendra Kushwaha is well known. But on May 22 the BJP expelled Pawan Singh, apparently for contesting against an NDA candidate. Pawan Singh had earlier backed out from contesting as a BJP candidate from Asansol in West Bengal against the Trinamool Congress’ Shatrughan Sinha.
The CPI(ML) candidate in Karakat, Raja Ram Singh, is also a Kushwaha. With Pawan Singh likely to split the dominant caste votes, Upendra Kushwaha may find the going tough.
All this does not make for good Kushwaha vibes for the NDA. For instance, Malti Devi, a Kushwaha from Harouli Lalganj, says she will vote for Chirag Paswan in Hajipur because of the work of Ram Vilas Paswan and the personal touch the Paswan family has maintained. But her choice has nothing to do with Upendra Kushwaha. “Wo to udhar ke neta hain,” (He is a leader from that side) she says.
Watching Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chopper leaving after a public meeting at Maharajganj, Siwan district, on May 21. | Photo Credit: PTI
The cooling off of the Kushwahas may cause trouble for Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai, a Yadav and BJP candidate in the Ujiarpur seat of the “Ganga paar” region. Alok Mehta, the RJD candidate from the seat, which has a sizeable population of Kushwahas, is a well-known Kushwaha leader. The Muslim and Yadav votes are likely to go to the RJD too. Rai won the seat in 2019, defeating Upendra Kushwaha, while the Yadavs had overwhelmingly voted for him then as there was no RJD candidate.
The CPI(M) has also fielded a Kushwaha, Sanjay Kumar, from its lone seat, Khagaria. He is pitted against the LJP’s Rajesh Verma, belonging to a business caste whose members were traditionally goldsmiths. This could be the weakest seat the LJP is contesting, given the social equations of Kushwahas, Muslims, and Mallahs besides Yadavs. This was the only seat where the NDA had a Muslim MP, Mehboob Ali Kaiser, from the LJP. Kaiser, who defeated the VIP candidate Mukesh Sahani in the seat in 2019, is now with the RJD.
If the victory of Chirag Paswan from his family bastion of Hajipur is a foregone conclusion, family rivalry might hurt the prospects of the LJP candidate Shambhavi Choudhary in Samastipur. Former LJP MP Prince Paswan, on being denied the party ticket, is learnt to have lent his support to Congress rival Sunny Hazari, the son of former MP Maheshwar Hazari.
Highlights
- The privileged castes are expected to vote largely for the NDA as before.
- Muslims and Yadavs will as usual back the Mahagathbandhan.
- Changes are expected in the voting pattern of EBCs and Dalits, who earlier voted overwhelmingly for the NDA.
A fight to watch in Munger
In Munger, sitting MP and former JD(U) president Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lalan Singh, a Bhumihar leader, is locked in a tough contest with Anita Kumari Mahto of the RJD. Anita’s husband is the gangster-turned-politician Ashok Mahto, a Kurmi. Munger was won thrice by Bhumihar candidates after it was carved out as a constituency, but this time that may change, with the contest taking on a “forward versus backward” dimension.
The sitting MP in Aurangabad, Sushil Kumar Singh of the BJP, also faces a Kushwaha candidate from the RJD, Abhay Kushwaha. In the past the seat was represented mostly by Rajputs.
In Nawada, the RJD has fielded Shravan Kushwaha. With the backing of Ashok Mahto, who has influence in the region, Shravan is giving the BJP’s Rajya Sabha MP Vivek Thakur a tough fight in what is otherwise an NDA bastion. The VIP’s Rajesh Kushwaha is pitted against former Union Minister Radhamohan Singh in Motihari.
In Saran and Patliputra, Lalu Prasad’ daughters Rohini Acharya and Misa Bharti may find it difficult to turn the tide against the BJP candidates Rajiv Pratap Rudy and Ram Kripal Yadav, both former Union Ministers. Rudy’s biggest support base consists of fellow Kshatriyas. Ram Kripal banks more on non-Yadav EBC votes. The Yadav vote may split.
In Patliputra, a Yadav voter said: “Ram Kripal is a good person. He was also with Lalu Prasad earlier.” He refused to be named because of the fear that his shop might be bulldozed. But Harendra Singh from Maner block in the same seat believes that Misa, who had earlier lost by 40,000 votes, has a chance now with CPI(ML) cadre votes.
In Patna Sahib, the sitting BJP MP Ravi Shankar Prasad has little challenge from the Congress candidate Anshul Avijit, son of former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar. Anshul’s candidature was a last-minute announcement by the Congress to placate Kumar. Anshul could not have contested from Sasaram, which his mother (she lost in 2019) and earlier his grandfather, Jagjivan Ram, represented. Sasaram is an SC reserved constituency, and Anshul is a Kushwaha on his father’s side.
Deepak Singh, who hails from Narma village in Patna Sahib, is a fan of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But he resented the 2018 amendment to the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, through which the Central government overturned a Supreme Court order that had held that a preliminary inquiry by a gazetted officer should precede the registration of an FIR under the Act. “It was a good judgment by the Supreme Court, but Modi got it changed because of vote-bank politics. Voters like us, who have always voted for the BJP, felt bad about it,” he said. His opinion reflects the unease among the BJP’s dominant caste voters over the party’s attempts to woo the SC, ST, and OBC communities.
RJD’s alliance with VIP seems to be working out well
The RJD’s alliance with the VIP, the political outfit of Mukesh Sahani (who calls himself “son of Mallah”), has given teeth to the Mahagathbandhan in Darbhanga, Madhubani, Jhanjharpur, Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, Khagaria, and Motihari. The VIP was earlier a BJP ally but moved away from it after all three VIP MLAs joined the BJP in 2022. Mukesh Sahani joined the Mahagathbandhan in April this year.
Lok Janshakti Party leader Chirag Paswan at a roadshow in Hajipur on May 15. | Photo Credit: PTI
Dalits in Bihar do not vote as a bloc, and they now appear to be changing their preferences. For instance, the Ravidas or Mochi community, which constitutes 5.3 per cent of the population, was traditionally loyal to the Congress. Among its members were Jagjivan Ram and his daughter, Meira Kumar. Of late, the community has shifted its loyalty to the Bahujan Samaj Party, which has never won any Lok Sabha seat in Bihar. The Musahars, who account for 3.1 per cent of the population, now rally behind former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, an NDA ally, and in some pockets they support the CPI(ML).
Supporters of the Mahagathbandhan are calling this Lok Sabha election a “20-20 match”. The expected weakening of the NDA’s performance, however, is on account of parties such as the JD(U) and the LJP. The BJP is likely to retain most of the 17 seats it is contesting.
The Mallahs strongly back the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, and they did so in Bihar, too, in the past. But now they stand firmly with the Mahagathbandhan. The RJD has also made some inroads among non-Paswan Dalits.
The alliance with the Left, particularly the CPI(ML), which traditionally had a strong base among Kushwahas and Dalits, seems to be benefiting the RJD, although the fear of Yadav hegemony has not gone away fully.
Tejashwi trying to recreate Lalu magic
When Lalu Prasad first emerged as an OBC leader, the entire OBC community and not just Yadavs responded to his appeal. His son and political heir Tejashwi Yadav is trying to recreate that appeal, but the weaker and numerically marginalised EBC castes are still wary of the “Yadavisation” of politics. That helps the BJP to deepen its subaltern Hindutva outreach.
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Only the BJP, the RJD, and the CPI(ML) have cadre on the ground. The CPI(M) and the CPI are weakened forces, while the Congress has no cadre. The HAM and the RLM are one-man parties. In 2014, the NDA minus JD(U) won 31 seats (BJP, 22; LJP, 6; RLSP, 3). In the opposition ranks, the RJD won four, and the JD(U) and Congress won two each, while the NCP got one.
What will be the key to the outcome of Lok Sabha election in Bihar? Will Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi be able to keep their EBC vote banks intact? Will Tejashwi Yadav be able to counter the perception of Yadav intimidation and enlarge the social coalition by bringing in other castes? Kushwahas have warmed to the RJD after years of a frosty relationship. The results will answer these questions, but it appears that “small” could be big in Bihar: the numerically small castes, whose votes will vary according to candidates and constituencies, could actually decide the outcome.
