Shivanand Tiwari, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) national vice president, starting as an MLA with Janata Dal in 1996, was close to Jayaprakash Narayan and many other leaders in the anti-Emergency movement in the 1970s. As Bihar completed phase one of polling on April 19th, Frontline caught up with him at his residence in Patna to talk about the possible trajectory of the election in the State.
How do you see the 2024 election panning out?
The polls are very clear. The last Lok Sabha election saw the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) winning 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats. It is very clear that this kind of outcome is not going to be repeated. It is very clear that 2019 will not repeat in 2024.
Caste has always played a key role in Bihar politics. Both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan have stitched alliances with leaders representing different castes. Which alliance has a stronger caste coalition?
Right now, the upper castes are strong supporters of the BJP. They feel that their hegemony in politics and society has been ended by those espousing Mandal [Commission]. They believe that had Lalu Prasad Yadav not arrive on the scene, their status would have remained the same.
This section feels that Narendra Modi is teaching them a lesson. For instance, the BJP talks about building a Hindu Rashtra.
What does Hindu Rashtra mean? That the social hierarchy will be maintained. After the 2015 results came out, Nitish Kumar’s image across the country got a lift. Nitish used to weigh his words and his liberal aura made people look at him as a better option than Narendra Modi. But unfortunately, he switched sides and his image nosedived.
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Will Nitish Kumar’s dented image have an impact on Janata Dal (United)’s (JDU) vote share?
It will definitely have an impact. People do not like the way Kumar made a turnaround. The way he behaved in Modi’s rally in Nawada put me to shame. I had a very deep political relationship with Nitish. In 2013 I had told Nitish Kumar not to take Modi lightly.
Has BJP’s subaltern Hindutva pitch resulted in a number of Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) gravitating towards the saffron party?
No party can accommodate leaders of all castes. BJP capitalised on that. In UP, other than Jatav, Mayawati’s caste, other Dalit castes were feeling sidelined. The BJP benefitted from this.
Two opposition Chief Ministers have gone to jail on corruption charges; Modi repeatedly says there will be no easing of action against corruption…
See the electoral bond. How the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) have been used to extract money from people. This is an open excuse for corruption.
Is BJP’s allegation about dynastic politics in opposition parties resonating on the ground?
All this talk about dynasty is bunkum. Who is Chirag Paswan? Look at the way BJP welcomed him with fanfare. Is this not dynasty politics? Shakuni Chaudhary’s son is the Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar. Rajnath Singh’s son contests the election. Are all these not example of dynastic politics?
Both Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav claim that they gave away teachers’ jobs to people in Bihar. Will votes in Bihar will be cast in the name of employment?
People do not trust Kumar whatever he may. Since I was there, I remember that when Tejashwi told media persons that if the RJD forms government, he will give 10 lakh jobs to people. After the announcement Kumar shot back asking if he will get the money from jail. At the time, Lalu Prasad was in jail. When Nitish joined hands with RJD he announced that not only will he provide 10 lakh jobs but will also create 10 lakh new jobs. Now he does not want the credit to go to Tejashwi.
Modi versus who? The BJP is asking about the face of the opposition in the 2024 general election.
This is not very important. The fact is that Modi is amplifying his message through the media. There should have been someone to ask him about the guarantees he talks about. How many of guarantees have been fulfilled?
Any pro or anti Modi wave?
The INDIA bloc after the Patna meeting should have settled things but did not. The result is that the announcements of candidates are still being made. Candidates and parties did not get enough time to prepare. This has been a weak point. My personal opinion was that Rahul Gandhi, instead of fighting from Wayand, should have fought only from Amethi. It would have appeared that he was accepting the challenge. People want to see a strong leader. This advantage was accrued to Modi. When Vibrant Gujarat took place he was Chief Minister; the campaign to project him started. At the same time, corruption controversies over 2G and the coal scam started resurfacing in the second term of the Manmohan Singh government. There was disappointment among the masses. People felt Singh was an indecisive Prime Minister and there was a need for a leader who could bring about development. Modi was projected as the harbinger of development.
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Do you see any difference this time from what the political environment in 2019?
The restlessness among the BJP is clearly evident. The aggression with which they are targeting [the opposition], spreading lies and making lofty claims. All this shows some kind of panic in the BJP. But they are trying to make a psychological impact on their voters with slogans of crossing 400 seats. They try to win over people psychologically as well as demoralise the opposition.
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