The BJP’s slogan Ab ki baar char so paar during the general election backfired like a boomerang. If that slogan had manifested itself, the BJP would have followed up with ab ki bar do so paar in the Maharashtra Assembly election. The BJP alliance crossed the two hundred mark: no major or minor BJP leader, election analyst, or media stalwart had predicted such a massive victory for the BJP alliance. Mahayuti won 231 out of 288 seats in the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly.
The three major parties are BJP (132 seats), the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena (57 seats) and Ajit Pawar-NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) (41 seats). There will be no opposition leader in the Maharashtra Assembly for the next five years. This is because the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which contested against Mahayuti got only 50 seats. The three major parties in MVA are the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) with 20 and NCP (Sharad Pawar).
Before the election, most people said that both alliances had an equal chance of winning. The exit polls predicted that the Mahayuti would get an absolute majority, but the actual results were extremely unexpected. It was a huge shock for the MVA and a surprise for Mahayuti too. It is now widely believed that no party has had such a huge victory in any election in Maharashtra in the last seven decades. Let us go to the root of this landslide victory.
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In the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP won 105, Shiv Sena, 56, and NCP, 54—combined, they won a total of 215 seats. In this election, the Congress lost 28 seats and the BJP gained 27 seats. But if we add up the seats won by the two factions of the Shiv Sena and the two factions of the NCP, they have nearly the same number of seats that they had in 2019 when they were together.
In the past and even now, the Congress remained on one side and the BJP on the other; but the smaller groups of Shiv Sena and NCP were now with the Congress, while their larger counterparts were with the BJP. It will be less of a surprise if we match these figures. If many found this result perplexing, it is because everyone assumed that the people would be angry with the political games played by the BJP in the last five years by splitting two big parties. Many expected that this anger would be expressed towards the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar). However, many voters expressed that anger during the Lok Sabha election and showed their sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.
But if we look at the strength of these six parties in the Lok Sabha and their strength in the legislative Assembly, the figures are contradictory. And it becomes difficult to predict what will happen in the future.
Here are some of the primary reasons for the great victory of the Mahayuti.
1. Focussing on women
During the general election, the three parties of Mahayuti won only 17 out of the 48 seats in Maharashtra. This startling jolt woke them up and they began to work towards the legislative Assembly election. The first and major decision taken was the launch of the “Ladki Bahin Yojana”. The Shivraj Singh Chouhan government in Madhya Pradesh implemented this scheme, and the BJP reaped its benefits in the Assembly election there. The Mahayuti government decided to replicate it in Maharashtra and, perhaps, the scheme is a major factor behind the alliance’s success.
Maharashtra, with a population of 12 crore has 9.7 crore voters. The recent election saw a voter turnout of 66 per cent, with women accounting for slightly more than half. The voter turnout was 61 per cent in the 2019 Assembly election as well as in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. There is no doubt the “Ladki Bahin” scheme had a role to play in increasing voter turnout.
In this scheme, more thanone crore women in Maharashtra received Rs.1,500 per month in their bank accounts for four months from July to October. The alliance also widely publicised the fact that if Mahayuti comes back to power, women will receive Rs.2,100 per month. As it was implemented right away, women had faith in it. In the budget of the State government for this year, the provision for the total expenditure is Rs.6.12 lakh crore. Out of this Rs.46,000 crore (7.5 per cent of the total expenditure) has been earmarked for the “Ladki Bahin” scheme. The Mahayuti government also implemented other schemes for women. They offered three free gas cylinders a year.
Another important reason for Mahayuti’s victory was the division of votes in the Maratha community and the shifting of the OBC votes towards the BJP alliance. In the past decade, there have been many protests over the Maratha reservation, and a lot of anger expressed. In the past two years, Manoj Jarange Patil (an activist for Maratha quota rights), a new face, came forward with the demand for reservation. As a result, over the past year, the acrimony between the Maratha and the OBC community has come to the fore in parts of the State, particularly in Marathwada. This may have resulted in a double benefit for the BJP.
The BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is a Brahmin; the second Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde are both Marathas. So, the MVA did not get the votes of the Maratha community, and the OBC was more in favour of the BJP too.
2. Schemes for farmers
Electricity bill waivers and crop insurance schemes were introduced for farmers. Fee waivers for students, and such other schemes were introduced for OBCs. The scheme of free or cheap food grains is being implemented for almost 70 per cent of families.
3. Forgiving the political split
BJP conspired and split the two big parties of Shiv Sena and NCP. The waves of sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, anger against Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde and a resentment towards BJP came to the fore in the the Lok Sabha election. But by the time the Assembly election was held five months later, that anger had subsided. Moreover, BJP took a submissive position for two-and-a-half years while teaming up with the two splinter groups. Fadnavis was forced to take the post of Deputy Chief Minister to maintain the alliance of the three parties. As a result, the public developed a positive view of BJP.
4. Army of activists
Those who have considerable resources and institutional networks find it easier to deploy an army of activists and put into place an electoral system. Most ofMahayuti’s candidates had vast networks of their own, huge amounts of money to splash, and the BJP had provided the logistics: the police, the administration, the Election Commission were all leaning towards them. The situation that Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray faced was quite to the contrary. The position of Congress was relatively good. That is why, the parties of Shinde and Ajit Pawar also contested with fervour in their Assembly constituencies. As both of them were very bold and domineering leaders, they used money freely, aiding Mahayuti.
5. The role of RSS
One of the main reasons why the BJP did not get a majority in the last Lok Sabha election was that its parent organisation, RSS, did not participate sufficiently. However, in the Assembly election, the Sangh held hundreds of meetings over the past four or five months and mobilised thousands of people. Fadnavis’s close relationship with the Sangh, the fact that it is headquartered in Nagpur, the leadership and many of the office bearers are from Maharashtra and are Marathi, certainly helped.
6. ‘By hook or crook’
During Modi and Shah’s tenure, the BJP has put forth the policy of ‘by hook or crook’ across the country. They have also continued this policy in Maharashtra politics for the last five years with increasing intensity. They not only used a lot of money, they also consistently had the Election Commission on their side, employed the police, and misused their administrative powers. Moreover, this time, there was also much repression: for instance, the BJP general secretary Vinod Tawde was caught distributing money the day before the polls, the vehicle of the former Home Minister and Sharad Pawar faction’s leader Anil Deshmukh was pelted with stones.
7. A negligent Congress
Of course, the grand campaign meets held by Modi and Shah and the rallies held by the Chief Minister and both Deputy Chief Ministers, facilitated the victory of the Mahayuti. The MVA lacked most of these elements. Sharad Pawar was their only ace and to some extent, Uddhav Thackeray. The Congress, however, showed instances of mismanagement. They believed that since the people of Maharashtra had very easily given them a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha election, they remained negligent, believing that it will happen again. In addition, Rahul Gandhi was not invested enough in this election.
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A forecast: The stalwarts’ future
Shinde is likely to remain in power in the State, but the leaders with him and his party will not be able to form a united whole. Most of the MLAs will remain with him as power figures for the next five years, but in the future some of these leaders could split and go to different parties. Perhaps Shinde will join the BJP at some point in the future.
Meanwhile, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena will survive, although its strength will be greatly reduced. Because of Shiv Sena’s presence in Mumbai and its roots in the Bahujan community in every corner of Maharashtra, Aditya has plenty of years to carry forward the legacy.
Even if Ajit Pawar and his captains have no ideological stand, there are governors in every taluk in Maharashtra who want to protect their provinces, and might look towards Ajit Pawar’s party. As Ajit Pawar’s sole aim is to be in power, or close to power, there is a high possibility that his party, NCP, will survive even beyond five years. Perhaps there will be a time in the future when BJP and Ajit Pawar’s party will be on one side and the Congress and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena on the other.
The most important feature of this election is that the end of Sharad Pawar’s politics is near. His contribution to Maharashtra has been enormous. For almost six decades, despite obstacles, he has played the politics of power and development on his own terms. But in 2014, he supported the BJP without seeking external support and tried to create a rift between the Sena and the BJP. He made that rift a reality in 2019, broke Shiv Sena from the BJP, aligned with the Congress and virtually wrested power from the BJP.
The most important feature of this election is that the end of Sharad Pawar’s politics is near. | Photo Credit: ANI
Modi and Shah worked hand in hand with Fadnavis to make Sharad Pawar pay a heavy price. So, with all sympathy for Sharad Pawar, it must be noted that whatever happens when you meet your match, happened to him. He was and still is an opponent of the BJP’s ideology. However, the fact that Sharad Pawar’s politics will have an unfortunate end is definitely a matter that shakes the identity of Maharashtra.
Meanwhile, Raj Thackeray, Balasaheb Thackeray’s nephew, founded his own party to reform Maharashtra, but even after 18 years, he has been unable to find any harmony. And now the party has perished prematurely. Babasaheb Ambedkar’s grandson, Prakash Ambedkar, who has not contested a single election to win in the last 20 years. Raj and Prakash, both of them have literally wasted the last two decades in politics. They destroyed the credibility of their own parties and the faith of their supporters. History will have to record that these two important leaders with great abilities played irresponsible political games.
Now Fadnavis will be named Maharashtra’s biggest leader. He is now over 50 years old. He can remain a major leader in Maharashtra for the next two decades, of course, if he continues to get the support of the BJP’s central leadership. Under his leadership, BJP will be able to gain power, and in the future, he will likely join the Union Cabinet.
Maharashtra Congress, meanwhile, had very few leaders. Those who happen to be a part of it are Sardars, Subhedars and Sansthaniks. The politics of interests has remained the constant character of Maharashtra Congress. Despite that, second and third ranks will continue to be a part of the Congress party. Disgruntled leaders from other parties will also keep turning towards the Congress. If there is resentment against other parties, people will continue to look towards Congress, because the roots of Congress are very deep within the grassroots of Maharashtra. No matter how hard BJP tries, it is not possible to destroy these roots. There is absolutely no chance that the Congress would become extinct in Maharashtra as it did in a State like Tamil Nadu. Even though the Congress has got only 16 seats now, it should not be surprising if in 2029 a full majority government is formed under its leadership, with the support of the Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray group or the NCP Ajit Pawar group.
The most surprising thing is that even though two-and-a-half years have passed since the expiry of the term, the election to the local bodies has not been held in the State. The OBC reservation issue seems to be mired in court rulings. But the truth is that there is a lack of will among all political parties. This is dangerous for democracy. Not a single march or protest has been organised by any party demanding that the local self-government election be held. The Mumbai Municipal Corporation is so important for the Shiv Sena, but they have done nothing either. The non-election of local bodies has definitely had some adverse effect on politics. It must have made it easier for BJP to continue the single umbrella operation and to create a split among various parties.
Now that the Mahayuti is in power, it is possible that the polarisation between Marathas and OBCs will diminish in the next five years. The Marathas and OBCs will be showered with welfare schemes. Perhaps the demand for Maratha reservation will die down, and the sudden rise of Manoj Jarange’s leadership will be contained.
Eknath Shinde says that voters went with BJP for their Hindutva ideology and Ajit Pawar says that they went with the party for development. It has been proven time and again that people want development, but long-term plans do not work to win over voters. So, spending extra money on welfare schemes was a short-term and sure-shot way.
Caste and religion were also used as weapons by the ruling class. BJP sowed the seeds of Hindutva in North India and Hindi speaking States. The party’s campaign did not garner much support in Maharashtra earlier, and the hope is that it will not work in the future. But if the other parties weaken, the very identity of a progressive Maharashtra will disappear.
Vinod Shirsath, author and political thinker, is the Editor of Marathi weekly, SAADHANA.
(Translated by Rahee Dahake)
