Maharashtra election: How will Muslims and Dalits vote?

The consolidation of Dalit and Muslim votes gave MVA a huge lead in the Lok Sabha election. But dynamics have shifted ahead of the Assembly election.

A Muslim woman after casting her vote in Mumbai (file photo). Before 2019, Muslims at large understood that they would have to tactically vote to remove the BJP from power. That benefited the MVA in Maharashtra. | Photo Credit: VIVEK BENDRE

On October 1, Deputy Chief Minister and BJP’s foremost leader in Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis, made a controversial remark in Kolhapur: “Vote jehad was witnessed during the Lok Sabha election. This resulted in Maha Vikas Aghadi’s [MVA] huge success in 14 out of 48 Lok Sabha constituencies. The consolidation of Muslim votes resulted in heavy losses for the Mahayuti.” The MVA, although weakened by splits in the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), won 31 Lok Sabha seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), on the other hand, bagged 17. These remarks were immediately seen as Fadnavis’ desperation to stir the communal pot in the State.

The Assembly election was not announced at that time in the State. But Fadnavis’ statement was a clear attempt to consolidate Hindu voters ahead of the Assembly election. The Election Commission of India, while announcing the Model Code of Conduct on October 12, took cognisance of Fadnavis’s statement and “warned of strict action” if it happens again. This statement, meanwhile, brought attention back to the consolidation of Muslim votes against the BJP and in favour of the strong winnable party.

“Vote jehad” is a communal term being pushed by the BJP and Hindu right-wing leaders to discredit Muslim votes. It also aims to create a fear factor among Hindu voters so that they will vote on communal lines. Fadnavis was not the first to use the term “vote jehad”. Many BJP leaders, including former MP Kirit Somaiya, MLA Nitesh Rane, MLC Pravin Darekar, and others have used the same term since the Lok Sabha election results were announced. The “vote jehad” reference was an attempt at polarisation.

It is a fact that a Muslim consolidation occurred in favour of the MVA in Maharashtra during the Lok Sabha election. But the BJP’s narrative that targets only the Muslim voter’s choices is based on half-truths. The analysis of Lok Sabha election results clearly shows that Dalits, tribal people, and Marathas in some parts of the State consolidated in favour of the MVA. Sections of women, farmers, and rural youths also backed the MVA.

The tribal community clearly distanced itself from the BJP in this Lok Sabha election. There are four seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes in the State. The BJP won all four in 2019; in 2024, it could win only one. The agricultural crisis and inflation impacted the election. Despite these facts in hand, the BJP continues to push the communal rhetoric.

The consolidation of Muslim and Dalit votes was tricky until November 4, the last date of withdrawal of nomination, as the role of the Maratha community in the election was important. Manoj Jarange Patil, Maratha leader of the reservation protest had announced that his candidates would contest 26 seats, in Marathwada and Western Maharashtra, to highlight the cause of the Maratha reservation. But, on the last day of withdrawal of nomination, Patil backed out and asked his supporters to withdraw their nominations. “Politics is not our business. Let these political parties fight. We are not going to contest because it is not possible to fight elections with the support of just one caste. Muslim and Dalit leaders were supposed to join us in contesting elections. But this is not happening,” said Patil. This has come as a big relief for MVA leaders as well as Muslim and Dalit community leaders.

Manoj Jarange Patil, leader of the Maratha reservation protest had announced that his candidates would contest 26 seats, in Marathwada and Western Maharashtra, to highlight the cause of Maratha reservation. | Photo Credit: THE HINDU

An important dynamic that has emerged after the Lok Sabha election is the issue of proportionate representation of Muslims by the MVA. Out of 288 Assembly seats in the State, there are 30 constituencies where Muslim votes came from 10 per cent to 40 per cent of the total electorate. This is why, many Muslim organisations were demanding that the MVA field more Muslim candidates. Muslim workers and social activists formed the Maharashtra Democratic Front (MDF), a banner under which several Muslim political enthusiasts are taking the initiative to campaign. In meetings held after the Lok Sabha election results, MDF representatives asked MVA to field at least 25 Muslim candidates. But that has not happened. The Congress has given eight, the NCP two, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) one, and the Samajwadi Party two Muslim candidates.

Frontline has learnt from sources that there is a strong sense of disapproval among the MDF workers over the low representation of Muslims in the MVA’s ticket distribution. Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) leader Aaditya Thackeray reacted to this issue: “Shiv Sena does not give tickets looking at caste, religion, or creed of the person. The only thing we look for is winnability.” A young functionary of the MDF, on condition of anonymity, said: “They want our votes, but they don’t want us to be in the Assembly. Muslim youths are not ready to accept this one-way business.”

So where will Muslim votes go in this Assembly election? Meanwhile, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has upped the tone of its campaign saying they are the only ones who raise Muslim concerns. The AIMIM had clout among Muslim youth in the 2014 and 2019 Assembly elections as well as Lok Sabha elections. Post 2019, Muslims at large understood that they would have to tactically vote to remove the BJP from power. That benefited the MVA in Maharashtra. However, the lack of representation among candidates has irked the community.

The Dalit story is not as complicated: they have reservation in the Assembly. In Maharashtra, there are 29 Scheduled Caste (SC) reserved constituencies. Therefore, the issue of political representation does not arise. The Dalits in Maharashtra have been voting between the Congress and republican parties of the State. Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) emerged as one of the strongest voices in the last decade. But the Lok Sabha election has shown a different picture. There are 14 per cent Dalits in the State, out of which 7 per cent are Buddhist Dalits. Buddhist Dalits have been strong supporters of secular progressive politics. But non-Buddhist Dalits, who are still within the Hindu religion, vote according to the local situation.

Garnering Dalit votes

While the BJP is aggressive on the issue of “vote jehad” targeting the Muslim community, it is entirely silent on the tactical voting of Dalits. Instead, it attempts to paint the Congress as an anti-Constitution party. But more than the BJP, it was the VBA that tried to make this a big issue in the State. If this has had an impact on Dalit votes, there would be a possibility of the MVA receiving fewer supporters from SC voters in the Assembly election. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi is to start his campaign at Nagpur in the Vidarbha region with his “Samvidhan Samman Sammelan” (Constitution Respect Seminar) on November 6, aimed at garnering Dalit votes in Maharashtra. Nagpur happens to be the headquarters of the RSS, BJP’s mother organisation.

When the Congress had a virtual hegemony in Maharashtra back in the 1980s, it had successfully cultivated the electoral formula: in Vidarbha, it was called DMK (Dalit–Muslim-Kunabi) whereas in the rest of the State, it was MMD (Maratha-Muslim-Dalit). As per the 1931 Census, Marathas are approximately 32 per cent. Dalits are 14, Muslims are 11.54 per cent, and tribal people are 9.35 per cent. This combines to almost 65 per cent of the total population. The consolidation of around 60 per cent of these voters brought the vote share of the MVA to almost 44 per cent in the Lok Sabha. That translated into 31 seats out of 48. Repeating this would be a key to the MVA’s success.