Subdued campaign, sharp divisions: Maharashtra’s electoral battle over jobs, caste, and ‘betrayal’

The BJP shifts from attacking state leaders to welfare promises, while MVA counters with jobs and industry exodus to Gujarat.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav during an election campaign in favour of Mahayuti candidate Rajesh Khandare ahead of Assembly polls, in Mumbai, on November 2024. | Photo Credit: PTI

No election in India is ever dull. While politicians may strategically modulate the intensity of their campaigns, the country’s elections consistently captivate public attention. That said, the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election proved quieter than many political observers anticipated. This subdued tone was particularly surprising given the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) recent setback in the State’s Lok Sabha elections and the results in Haryana, which led many to expect an aggressive campaign from the BJP. However, the campaign that concluded on November 18 maintained a notably low profile.

This restraint was strategic. During the Lok Sabha campaign, the BJP discovered that attacks by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah on Uddhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar triggered strong grassroots backlash. While such criticism during national elections, where neither Maharashtra leader was a prime ministerial candidate, proved costly, the stakes were even higher in the Assembly election. Given Thackeray and Pawar’s fifty-year legacy as state leaders, attacking them risked even stronger electoral repercussions. Consequently, the BJP redirected its focus toward the Congress, centering its advertising campaign on the “Why no Congress?” theme. This strategy was particularly relevant as both national parties competed head-to-head in 74 Assembly seats, where victory could determine who forms the government.

The Congress recognised this strategy a bit late. Despite its alliance with NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, their first joint rally in Mumbai occurred only on November 6 (the election was announced on October 15). The Congress campaign gained momentum after November 14, the party leadership was involved in Priyanka Gandhi’s by-election in Wayanad, Kerala.

During this period, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar led the MVA’s campaign charge, while the Mahayuti (Maharashtra’s NDA) was spearheaded by Modi, supported by Shah, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, and Ajit Pawar. At his rallies, Modi talked about the government’s welfare schemes while introducing the communal slogan “Ek Hai To Safe Hai”. This followed the BJP’s post-Lok Sabha narrative about Muslim bloc voting, termed “Vote Jehad”, and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s controversial slogan “Batenge To Katenge” (Divided we perish), which he repeated at Maharashtra rallies.

These polarising tactics faced internal resistance, with NCP (Ajit Pawar) and BJP leaders such as Pankaja Munde and Ashok Chavan arguing that such North Indian-style communal politics were unsuitable for Maharashtra’s development-focused electorate. Recognising this discomfort among party and alliance leaders, Modi crafted the more nuanced “Ek Hai to Safe Hai” (Together, we are safe) slogan. While the BJP leaders equated this with “We Are All One,” its communal undertones remained evident, effectively delivering the party’s intended message to voters.

While the BJP pushed a Hindu-Muslim narrative, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) leaders reframed the electoral battle along sub-nationalist lines. They highlighted Maharashtra’s industrial exodus to Gujarat as a primary issue of “injustice to Maharashtra”. Leaders across the alliance, from Opposition Leader Rahul Gandhi to Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, consistently cited specific industries that relocated from Maharashtra to Gujarat in recent years. They noted that these industrial shifts could have generated 5,00,000 jobs, an important point given Maharashtra’s unemployment challenges. The MVA portrayed this as Gujarat, aided by the central government, depriving Maharashtrian youth of employment opportunities.

Recognising unemployment’s centrality to voters’ concerns, the MVA’s manifesto promised 2,50,000 government jobs within six months and 1.2 million private sector positions. Meanwhile, the Mahayuti government’s Ladaki Bahin scheme, providing Rs.1,500 monthly to women aged 21-65, became their campaign cornerstone. This direct benefit transfer program arguably kept Mahayuti competitive in Mumbai, particularly following their 31-17 Lok Sabha setback. The MVA countered by promising Rs.3,000 monthly payments, along with free education through graduation, Rs.2.5 million health insurance coverage, and minimum support prices (MSP) 50 per cent above current levels.

As soybean prices plummet, farmers, particularly women, bear the brunt, selling their harvests at prices far below the Minimum Support Price (MSP), igniting fiery debates in the election arena. | Photo Credit: B. Jothi Ramalingam / The Hindu

The MVA’s boldest economic promise concerned soybean pricing. With market prices falling to Rs.4,000 per quintal against an MSP of Rs.4,892, the MVA pledged Rs.7,000 per quintal if elected. According to senior journalist Suhas Sardeshmukh from Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, this promise could influence voting patterns across 70 assembly constituencies in Marathwada, Vidarbha, and North Maharashtra. Though Mahayuti promised Rs.6,000 per quintal, their current position in government made farmers sceptical of this commitment.

Caste dynamics, which was central to Maharashtra’s Lok Sabha campaign, remained prominent in the Assembly election as well. The Maratha community’s reservation demands, particularly their leader’s push for inclusion in the Kunbi category of Other Backward Classes (OBC), has antagonised OBCs, especially in Marathwada. The BJP sought to consolidate non-Maratha Hindu support, particularly after reservation movement leader Manoj Jarange urged his supporters to oppose the BJP and Mahayuti. This caste-based polarisation could significantly impact 95 Assembly seats. The relative strength of Maratha versus non-Maratha consolidation will likely prove decisive in determining election outcomes.

Maharashtra politics underwent dramatic changes after Uddhav Thackeray’s government fell in June 2022, splitting Shiv Sena into two factions. Thackeray has since campaigned heavily on the issue of “Gaddari” (betrayal). Sharad Pawar’s NCP faced a similar fate, with the Election Commission granting party symbols to rebel groups—a decision both leaders portrayed as an affront to Maharashtra’s pride. The “Gaddari” narrative gained renewed prominence in these Assembly election, with both Thackeray and Sharad Pawar urging voters to defeat the “traitors”. This family drama reached its peak in Baramati, where Sharad Pawar fielded his grandson Yugendra Pawar—Ajit Pawar’s nephew—against Ajit himself, openly calling for Ajit’s defeat on grounds of betrayal.

Against the backdrop of competitive welfare promises and growing caste and religious divisions, the campaign’s quality deteriorated significantly. The rhetoric employed by both local and State-level leaders departed from Maharashtra’s traditional political culture of mutual respect and warmth. While every leader invokes Yashwantrao Chavan, Maharashtra’s first Chief Minister, they seem to have forgotten his crucial message from the 1962 election campaign: “Elections are the soul of democracy. Elections give leaders an opportunity to introspect and present their vision. Elections are also times for people’s education at large. Leaders must take this opportunity to educate the people with their plans.”

The 2024 Assembly election emerges as perhaps the most crucial since 1962, occurring at a time when Maharashtra faces declining industrial output, deteriorating infrastructure, and erosion of political dignity. And voters witnessed mostly personal attacks and vague promises rather than substantive debate. The election battle appeared neck-and-neck, and campaigns from all sides lacked innovation and fresh ideas. Now, Maharashtra’s 98 million voters must now make their decision based on this lacklustre campaign season