Yahya Ibrahim Hassan al-Sinwar, the new leader of Hamas, is stirring up controversy as well as intrigue in West Asian politics as his election has put the region on edge and many wonder what his leadership will mean for the ongoing war. He was elected this week by the 50-member Shura Council, an advisory body elected by Hamas members in four chapters: Gaza, West Bank, diaspora and security prisoners in Israeli jails. His rise to the top of Hamas’ political bureau to replace assassinated leader Ismail Haniyeh has thrown the region into turmoil as it waited for the guns to fall silent.
Trusted sources in the region told Frontline that Israeli spy agencies had proposed eliminating Sinwar—who had spent 23 years in Israeli prisons and was released in 2011 in exchange for imprisoned Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit—several times.
In the 2021 Israeli–Palestinian crisis, dubbed the Intifada of Unity by the Palestinians and Operation Guardians of the Walls by the Israelis, the Israeli domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet had specifically requested permission for his elimination. It was during this war that Sinwar successfully propelled himself into a leadership role with an iconic picture of him sitting on a dusty couch in the heart of the ruins of Gaza.
The head of the Shin Bet, Nadav Argaman, had argued that Sinwar posed a strategic challenge to Israel. Within 10 years of his release, he quickly took control of the Gaza Strip, united the organisation’s military and political wings under his leadership and also expelled the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) from the region.
But Benjamin Netanyahu, who had just concluded the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain and was counting on bringing Saudi Arabia on board, had other plans. Sources report that he spoke out against the assassination proposal.
Many in Tel Aviv believe that this was not out of love for Sinwar, but out of Netanyahu’s usual political intention to weaken the Mahmoud Abbas-led Palestinian Authority and the secular PLO by giving its arch-rival, the Islamist Hamas in Gaza, leverage so that Arab leaders do not insist on including the Palestinians in any round of negotiations.
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According to analysts in West Asia, the Israeli prime minister has now turned back the clock again by allegedly ordering the assassination of moderate Hamas representative Haniyeh in Tehran amid US-backed ceasefire talks mediated by Egypt and Qatar.
Experts believe that there are many unwritten rules of warfare and conflict management. The most important of these is not to eliminate any party or person who has the authority to end the violence and achieve a ceasefire. Israel has violated this rule by eliminating the moderate face of Hamas and effectively leaving the organisation to the hardliners, who are expected to prioritise armed struggle as the only strategic option.
Speaking to Frontline, senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said that while new chief Sinwar has instructed his team to continue his predecessor Haniyeh’s policy on ceasefire talks, the process stands stalled.
“We are still ready to look favourably on any proposal for a ceasefire, but there has been no progress in the talks since Haniyeh’s assassination,” he said. He emphasised that the problem with the negotiations was not the change of leadership in Hamas, but Israel and the failure of the US to force an agreement.
Hiding in tunnels
However, mediators in Cairo and Doha are worried as they do not know how to deal with the new Hamas leader, who is hiding somewhere in tunnels and waging war in Gaza from the front, unlike Haniyeh and Khalid Mashal, who used to frequent world capitals. Mashal was expected to take the lead as he was involved in diplomatic relations and assisted Haniyeh in the negotiations.
Analysts believe Sinwar’s election is not just a routine leadership change, but a statement of intent reflecting a hardening of positions towards Netanyahu. His election indicates a tough stance towards Israel, with a clear message of defiance and resistance.
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Born in 1962 in the Khan Yunis refugee camp, Sinwar’s life has been characterised by struggle from the start. His early experiences in the camp’s narrow alleyways and makeshift shelters shaped a resilience that would define his future.
His academic prowess was overshadowed by his growing commitment to the Palestinian cause, which eventually led to his arrest and conviction by the Israeli authorities for his role in the kidnapping and murder of two Israeli soldiers.
Sinwar’s strategic acumen was displayed on October, 7, 2023, when he orchestrated arguably the most significant deception operation in Israel’s history. While Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa led the attack on Israel, Sinwar is believed to have meticulously planned and executed the operation.
Internationally, Sinwar is a figure of contention. Designated a terrorist by major powers such as the US and the European Union, he is seen by his supporters as a freedom fighter, embodying the Palestinian quest for self-determination against overwhelming odds. His policies and actions have kept him at the heart of geopolitical discussions, influencing regional politics and international diplomatic relations.
As negotiations for peace and ceasefire remain elusive, Sinwar’s role is pivotal. With each move, he shapes the possibilities of peace or prolongs the prospects of perpetual conflict. His leadership is a beacon for some and a bane for others, encapsulating the complex interplay of heroism and vilification that characterises the Israeli-Palestinian saga.
Whether vilified or valorised, his impact on the course of West Asian politics is indelible, painting a portrait of a man at the epicentre of one of the world’s most enduring conflicts.
Iftikhar Gilani is an Indian journalist based in Ankara
