Gaza war at tenuous crossroads as Israel spurns ceasefire efforts, risking regional escalation

With Israel mobilising troops for a ground offensive in Rafah, it is just a matter of time before other countries are sucked into the conflict.

A Palestinian woman holds a girl wounded in an Israeli strike, at a hospital as Israeli forces launch a ground and air operation in the eastern part of Rafah on May 7. | Photo Credit: HATEM KHALED/REUTERS

The war in Gaza, which broke out on October 7, 2023, has now completed seven months to become the longest war since Israel vacated Gaza unilaterally in 2005. In this period, Israel has pounded Gaza relentlessly, killing more than 34,500 Palestinians, including over 13,500 children. More than 77,500 have been seriously injured and perhaps maimed for life.

Hundreds of bodies remain buried under the rubble, and with the onset of summer, the stench of death and decay overwhelms the area. Medical aid, food, and water have been severely restricted and most international aid agencies have been targeted and prevented from delivering life-saving aid. Despite a UN Security Council resolution of March 25 calling for an immediate ceasefire and unconditional release of hostages, neither of the warring parties has been able to come to an understanding.

The ceasefire deal

In the past week or so, there were hectic attempts to forge a consensus on a ceasefire deal. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was on his seventh visit to the region since the onset of the war, held wide-ranging discussions with Arab leaders in Riyadh as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on April 29-30. At the end of it, a fresh ceasefire proposal was presented. Hamas agreed to it, much to the surprise of Israel, which had hoped Hamas would reject it, continuing on its stance that there cannot be a ceasefire unless it involves a complete end to hostilities and withdrawal of all IDF (Israel Defence Forces) troops from Gaza.

The deal, presented on April 30, involved the release of 33 hostages in the custody of Hamas in the first stage of a 40-day ceasefire. These would include women, female soldiers, elderly hostages, and the injured or sick. It also included the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails and the return of displaced Palestinians to the south of the Gaza Strip.

The deal also envisaged a second phase of 40 days when the rest of the hostages, including male civilians and soldiers, as well as the bodies of others, would be released in return for end of hostilities and the return of Palestinian prisoners in Israel. But hopes for peace were dashed when, despite Blinken’s insistence, Netanyahu rejected the deal, stating: “We will enter Rafah and we will eliminate the Hamas battalions there, with or without a deal, in order to achieve total victory.”

Students occupy the street in front of the Sciences Po University in Paris, building in support of Palestinians in Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas on May 7, 2024.

Second proposal

As Israel continued its preparations for a ground offensive in Rafah, the trio of Egypt, Qatar, and the US came up with another proposal on May 6, which slightly modified the terms of the previous proposal. The proposed deal envisaged three phases of 42 days each.

In the first phase, Hamas would release 33 hostages in return for the release of Palestinian prisoners. Every week, three hostages would be released. This would include women, female soldiers, and the elderly and sick. Moreover, Israel would allow the return of displaced people and permit free movement of Palestinians from south to north Gaza.

In the second phase of 42 days, there would be a complete halt to military activity and the withdrawal of IDF from Gaza. And in the final phase, there would be an exchange of the remaining hostages and the bodies of the dead and a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, to be overseen by international observers.

Again, Hamas accepted the deal, leading to celebrations and relief in Rafah and the rest of Gaza, but the joy was short-lived. A statement from Netanyahu’s office late at night on May 6 stated that Hamas’s latest offer was “far from Israel’s essential requirements”. It added that the war cabinet had unanimously decided to push ahead with an IDF operation in Rafah “in order to apply military pressure on Hamas, with the goal of making progress on freeing the hostages and the other war aims”.

US President Joe Biden also spoke to Netanyahu over phone on May 6 and reiterated his strong opposition to an Israeli offensive in Rafah, but Netanyahu does not appear to be listening. With this, yet another flicker of hope has been snuffed out, as the 1.3 million people cramped in Rafah await their fate and Israel ramps up its preparations for a ground offensive.

Previous ceasefire attempts

There have been multiple attempts for a ceasefire since the onset of the war. The first came in November 2023 when both warring parties agreed to a humanitarian truce of four days from November 24 to exchange hostages, primarily women, children, and the elderly. At least 50 hostages were released in exchange for a four-day break in Israel’s air and ground campaign and 150 Palestinian prisoners were released from Israeli jails. The truce was extended twice before Israel resumed operations on December 1.

A girl stands beneath clothes drying on a laundry line at a school run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) at the Shati camp for Palestinian refugees, west of Gaza City, on May 7, 2024. | Photo Credit: AFP

Another concrete proposal was presented in Paris on January 28, proposing a ceasefire of six weeks coupled with the first phase of civilian hostage releases, with three Palestinian prisoners held by Israel released for each civilian hostage returned from Gaza. The ceasefire could be extended for a longer period later.

Israel, however, voiced concerns over “some conditions that were not acceptable”. Hamas came up with a counter proposal on February 7, for a ceasefire of 135 days during which all hostages would go free, Israel would withdraw all troops from Gaza, and an agreement would eventually be reached on an end to the war. Netanyahu dismissed it immediately, calling it “delusional”.

Days before the onset of the holy month of Ramzan on March 11, another attempt at a ceasefire was made by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, proposing an agreement in which Hamas would release Israeli captives in return for a six-week ceasefire, the release of some Palestinian prisoners, and more aid to Gaza. However, Hamas dismissed it, stating that it wanted a permanent ceasefire instead of a six-week pause, and a “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza, along with the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel.

On March 25, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. Voting on this resolution, the US abstained while the remaining 14 council members voted for the resolution. Israel reacted immediately, with Netanyahu alleging that the US had “abandoned its policy” and was harming the war effort and the release of Israeli hostages.

Under Israeli pressure, the US immediately retracted and came out with a statement that the UN Resolution was non-binding and that Israel could continue what it was doing in Gaza, making a mockery of the whole UNSC process.

Previously, the UNSC failed three times to pass a resolution for ceasefire in the Gaza war. As early as October 18, the UNSC failed to pass a resolution, even as the humanitarian situation in Gaza was fast deteriorating. The resolution failed as the US exercised its veto power.

Again, on December 8, the US vetoed a UNSC resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, arguing that Israel had the right to defend itself against Hamas attacks. The vote was 13 to 1, with the UK abstaining.

On February 20, the US cast its veto a third time against a UNSC resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, saying that it feared a resolution would disrupt hostage negotiations.

What next?

With the latest ceasefire being rejected by Israel on May 7, there is a sense of inevitability about the ground offensive in Rafah. Recent developments clearly indicate that the IDF is back in the area and “preparing the battlefield”. Israel estimates that the higher Hamas leadership and four remaining battalions are entrenched in Rafah. As per reports, two IDF combat divisions, the 98th Airborne and the 162nd Armoured, have been called up to Rafah.

There has also been an intensification of air strikes on Rafah in an attempt to “soften the target”, resulting in large civilian casualties in the past few days: 22 killed on April 30, 13 killed on May 2, and 16 killed on May 6. It is estimated that almost 300 people have already been killed in Israeli airstrikes in Rafah since the start of Ramzan.

Satellite images also show a new tent city with over 10,000 tents that has come up recently in the areas north of Rafah, which can hold thousands of people. There have been reports and videos of Israel dropping leaflets over Gaza and Rafah asking people to evacuate.

On May 6, the Israeli army issued orders to evacuate the 100,000 Palestinians in eastern Rafah, and there are reports of Israeli tanks entering Eastern Rafah in the early hours of May 7 and taking control of the Rafah crossing on the Palestinian side, opposite Egypt.

Any hope for peace?

The war in Gaza has seen a number of ups and downs. The Iran-Israel spat in April almost resulted in an escalated full-blown regional conflict, but both sides decided to call it quits, at least for now. However, with Iran shedding its “strategic patience”, any false trigger could lead to massive retaliation.

As regards the current situation, the Rafah offensive is the final nail in the coffin. It is bound to lead to massive casualties. The US, Egypt, and most of the other Arab countries have warned that this is a red line that Israel should not cross. However, the time for warnings and threats is now over. With Israel moving in troops and tanks into Rafah and dismissing the ceasefire, it is a matter of time before the full-scale offensive is launched.

A Palestinian girl wounded in an Israeli strike is treated at a hospital as Israeli forces launch a ground and air operation in the eastern part of Rafah on May 7, 2024. | Photo Credit: HATEM KHALED / REUTERS

Egypt has already raised the alert levels for its military deployed in Northern Sinai, bordering Rafah, and it will therefore be the first to react to any offensive. If Egypt retaliates, not only will it put the 1979 peace treaty with Israel in jeopardy, it will make it very difficult for other nations in the region not to act.

Until now, except Egypt, Qatar, Turkiye, and obviously Iran, other nations including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have maintained a “stand-off position” on the war. Yes, statements have been issued condemning Israeli actions but nothing beyond that. It is, therefore, time for these regional powerhouses to walk the talk now, before the opportunity is lost forever.

If the Rafah offensive goes through, three things are certain. Firstly, there will be casualties in the thousands, not hundreds. Secondly, Gaza and the “two-state solution” will be lost for a long time. And thirdly, the one thread, “State of Palestine”, which has been a major point of convergence and solidarity in the Muslim world, will be lost forever.

The US is caught in a bind due to its blind support of Israel. Despite drawing red lines and warnings, Israel is not listening to it, which is a major embarrassment. There have been massive protests in university and college campuses in the US, where students and faculty have come out in open support for Palestinians and have called out the genocide in Gaza, condemning the US support to it. In a presidential election year, Biden will find it increasingly difficult if his approval ratings keep dropping.

Israel and Netanyahu are desperate, knowing that time is running out, both at home and abroad. The Rafah offensive is bound to be a catastrophe, a holocaust of the modern era. It is time for the international community to act before all is lost.

Colonel Rajeev Agarwal (retd) is Assistant Director of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. He has served as Director in the Ministry of External Affairs, as Research Fellow at IDSA, and as Director, Military Intelligence Directorate. His X handle is @rajeevidsa. The views are personal.