Uncertainty in Iran after death of President Ebrahim Raisi

Raisi’s death creates a void and opens up a wide field for competitors vying to succeed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi delivers a speech at Tehran University on December 7, 2022. Iranian media declared President Raisi dead on May 20 after his helicopter crashed in a mountainous northwestern region. | Photo Credit: Iranian Presidency/AFP

In the early hours of May 20, a Turkish Bayraktar Akinci unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) detected a heat source in the mountainous northwest of Iran. The coordinates shared with Iranian authorities confirmed the wreckage of a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

The helicopter, also carrying Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials, had gone missing on May 19 over East Azerbaijan province, prompting a massive rescue operation in the fog-shrouded forest. An Iranian official stated that hopes sparked throughout the night until they received the Turkish coordinates.

President Raisi was travelling near Jolfa, a city on the border with Azerbaijan, approximately 600 km northwest of Tehran. Initial conflicting reports placed the crash site near the village of Uzi. Turkish authorities released drone footage showing a fire, suspected to be the wreckage, 20 km south of the Azerbaijan-Iran border on a steep mountain. Tragically, all nine people on board, including Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, were confirmed dead.

Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will assume presidential powers until new elections are held within 50 days, as stipulated by the Iranian constitution. Analysts say this sudden transition leaves Iran in a state of political uncertainty, particularly regarding its domestic and foreign policies.

Conservative at the helm

Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline cleric known for his conservative views, served as Iran’s eighth President from 2021. His rise to power was facilitated when the Guardian Council disqualified numerous reformist and moderate candidates in the 2021 election, clearing the path for Raisi’s victory.

Raisi faced substantial criticism for his role in the controversial 1988 judicial commission and his handling of the 2022 protests following the death of Mahsa Amini. Amini’s death on September 16, 2022, while in the custody of the morality police sparked widespread social and political unrest in Iran. The demonstrations were among the largest and longest in the Islamic Republic’s history, resulting in severe state repression, with over 500 protesters killed and hundreds more injured, disappeared, or detained.

A Controversial Leader’s Legacy

Born on December 14, 1960, in Mashhad, Ebrahim Raisi was a significant figure in Iran’s judiciary and political landscape. Raised with a strong religious education, he quickly rose through the ranks, becoming a prominent and often controversial leader.

Raisi’s involvement in the 1988 mass executions of political prisoners, drawing widespread international condemnation and leading to US sanctions for human rights violations, remains a dark mark on his legacy. His presidency was characterized by a hardline stance against Western influence and internal dissent, yet he played a crucial role in recent diplomatic efforts, notably in improving relations with Saudi Arabia.

Raisi’s death leaves a substantial void in Iranian politics. Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is now tasked with guiding the nation through this transitional period. The future of Iran’s leadership is uncertain at this moment of significant political shift.

Raisi held several key positions in his career. In 1994, he was appointed head of the State Inspectorate Organization, a role he held for a decade. In 2004, he became the first deputy chief of the judiciary, later serving as Iran’s attorney general in 2014. By 2016, Khamenei appointed him as the head of the Imam Reza Shrine and Foundation in Mashhad.

Raisi ran for President in 2017 but lost to then-incumbent President Hassan Rouhani. However, in March 2019, following Ayatollah Amoli Larijani’s dismissal and subsequent appointment to the Expediency Discernment Council, Raisi assumed the position of judiciary chief.

In the presidential elections held on June 18, 2021, Raisi won decisively with 62 per cent of the vote, becoming Iran’s eighth president. His tenure was marked by significant challenges and achievements, and shaped a complex legacy that will influence Iran for years to come.

Despite widespread expectations that Raisi’s tenure would be marked by seclusion and controversy, he managed to navigate the complex world of international relations adeptly. Under his leadership, Iran continued to enrich uranium, escalating tensions with the West. However, Raisi achieved significant diplomatic success by restoring ties with Saudi Arabia in 2023, following Chinese-mediated negotiations, outwitting American diplomacy.

This reconciliation enabled progress in Iran’s peace talks in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia supports the government against the Houthi rebels backed by Tehran, and prevented military escalation.

Strategic pragmatism

Analysts view these diplomatic achievements as a testament to Raisi’s strategic pragmatism. The reconciliation with Saudi Arabia opened avenues for dialogue with other regional powers and contributed to a temporary reduction in regional tensions. In November, during Israel’s war on Gaza, both Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Raisi attended an emergency Arab League summit in Riyadh, advocating for more punitive measures against Israel. Beyond political gains, the reconciliation between two of the region’s major economies led to discussions about boosting trade ties.

Under Raisi’s leadership, Iran dusted off the Chabahar port deal with India defying potential US sanctions. Both countries recently signed a 10-year agreement to develop and operate Iran’s strategic port, providing India connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asian countries, bypassing Pakistan. India will operate a terminal in Shahid Beheshti and invest $120 million into equipping it, with an additional $250 million loan credit facility for related projects in the port, bringing the contract’s value to $370 million.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a meeting with the families of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran on May 19. Raisi’s death marks a significant moment in Iranian politics, potentially reshaping the country’s leadership dynamics as he was seen as a potential heir to Supreme Leader Khamenei. | Photo Credit: OFFICE OF THE IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER/WANA/Handout via REUTERS

The exchange of prisoners between Iran and the US, announced in August 2023 and implemented in September, along with the release of $6 billion previously frozen in South Korea due to US sanctions, were also indications of Raisi’s widening the diplomatic room for manoeuvre vis-à-vis the Biden administration.

In the wake of the “Al Aqsa Flood” operation, when Palestinian resistance group Hamas attacked Israel, many states held Iran responsible for providing finances and military wherewithal. But just a few days after the October 7, 2023, attack, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarked that no concrete evidence linked Iran directly to the attack, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) could not conclusively tie Iran to the planning or execution of the attacks.

But Iran’s sustained backing of groups like Hamas has amplified its influence in West Asia and streets in the Arab world. It has also forced many other Arab countries like Egypt to come forward publicly with support and aid for Palestinians.

Succession race opens up

Raisi’s death marks a significant moment in Iranian politics, potentially reshaping the country’s leadership dynamics. He was seen as a potential heir to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The sudden vacancy has now opened the field for other competitors. While the sensitive issue has mostly remained confined to power corridors, Khamenei’s loyalists are believed to be orchestrating a succession plan to ensure that the next leader is his chosen successor.

This week, former President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate sidelined from decision-making, brought the issue into the spotlight. In a public letter, Rouhani protested his disqualification from the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body responsible for appointing the next Supreme Leader. Rouhani, who served two terms as President from 2013 to 2021 and was a member of the Assembly of Experts for two decades, found his recent disqualification particularly significant.

With the Assembly of Experts holding an eight-year mandate and the 85-year-old Khamenei reportedly facing health issues, the composition of the assembly is crucial, as it may appoint the next Supreme Leader.

Analysts in Tehran suggest that in the absence of Raisi, the field has been left wide open for Khamenei’s son, the 56-year-old cleric, Mojtaba Khamenei, to be his successor. Mojtaba, largely absent from the media, is believed to be his father’s right-hand man, wielding significant influence and maintaining close ties with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to Al-Monitor, a website covering West Asia, the list of potential successors has been kept confidential. Earlier in February, Mohammad Ali Mousavi Jazayeri, a senior member of the Assembly of Experts, defended keeping the list secret, citing concerns over potential assassination plots by Iran’s enemies, namely the US and Israel.

But insiders said that besides Mojtaba, Raisi and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, had been shortlisted for the topmost position in Iran. With Raisi’s death, there are only two competitors now.

Iran’s Foreign Minister dies

The helicopter crash also claimed the life of Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who was instrumental in presenting Tehran’s case to the international community and seeking ways to mitigate the harsh effects of sanctions.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Tehran on November 23, 2022. | Photo Credit: ATTA KENARE/AFP

Born in 1964, Amir-Abdollahian graduated from Tehran University with a degree in international relations in 1991. Fluent in Persian, Arabic, and English, he served as the ambassador to Bahrain during President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration.

Amir-Abdollahian later became the deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs under both Ahmadinejad and Hassan Rouhani. Before his tenure as Foreign Minister, he was the Special Assistant for International Relations to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

As Foreign Minister, Amir-Abdollahian oversaw the restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023, ending seven years of tensions and leading to the reopening of embassies in both countries.

Iftikhar Gilani is an Indian journalist based in Ankara.