The war in Gaza, into its 15th month, rages on as repeated attempts to bring about a ceasefire and end hostilities continue to fail. In the latest such effort to get a ceasefire through the UN Security Council, a resolution sponsored by the E-10 (elected non-permanent members to the Security Council) on November 20 failed as the US vetoed the resolution demanding an “immediate, unconditional and permanent” ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. While the 14 other members of the council voted in favour, the veto by the US meant that yet another resolution had failed to pass muster. This is the fourth such veto by the US in the war in Gaza, the previous three being the drafts presented and debated, on October 18, 2023; December 8, 2023; and February 20, 2024.
In addition to a call for an immediate ceasefire, the current text also demanded that the parties “fully, unconditionally, and without delay” implement all the provisions of the Security Council resolution of June 2024, in which a three-stage plan for ending hostilities in Gaza had been endorsed. This text also included the demand for the release of hostages, an exchange of Palestinian prisoners, the return of the remains of hostages who have been killed, the return of Palestinian civilians to their homes in Gaza—including in the north—and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The draft also reiterated the primary role of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) as the backbone of the humanitarian response in Gaza. Justifying its veto, Robert Wood, the US deputy envoy to the UN, said, “We could not support an unconditional ceasefire that failed to release the hostages.”
This latest attempt comes after a series of recent setbacks towards securing a ceasefire and ending this bloody conflict, which has already killed over 43,700 in Gaza and 3,000 in Lebanon; over two million people have been internally displaced multiple times over the past year.
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The decision by Qatar to withdraw from ceasefire talks too has to be counted as a major setback as it was acting as a major interlocutor between Hamas and the West. On November 9, Qatar announced that it had suspended its mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel until the parties showed “their willingness and seriousness” to end the war in Gaza. It was soon followed by reports that Qatar, under pressure from the US, had also asked the Hamas to leave Qatar. Media reports indicated that Hamas has temporarily moved its offices to Turkey. However, on November 18, the Qatar Foreign Ministry clarified that, with negotiations halted, Hamas leaders had moved to other locations in the region, but the Hamas office has not yet been permanently closed. The withdrawal of Qatar means that any slim hope of an early ceasefire now looks even more remote, as it was mainly Qatar that had direct access to the Hamas leadership during negotiations.
Independent of the UN Security Council resolutions, the US too has been actively pursuing an early end to the war. Towards this, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, has visited the region 11 times to somehow get a consensus on ending the war. On his 11th visit to the region on October 23, a few days before the US election, he stressed the fact that Israel should use its recent tactical victories against Hamas and Hezbollah (especially the elimination of top leadership) and pursue an “enduring strategic success” in Gaza and end the war. Israel however has paid no heed to it and has continued its operations in Gaza, unabated.
‘Finish the job’
The election of Donald Trump as the next US President too could be a contributing factor in the failing talks and intensifying operations in Gaza. Trump, who is opposed to wars but is very strongly aligned with Israel, has reportedly given a green signal to Israel to “finish the job” before he assumes the presidency on January 20, 2025. This means that Israel and its Prime Minister Netanyahu have got another window of two months to conduct operations and strikes with impunity before Trump takes over and calls it “over,” claiming credit for ending the war. Perhaps endorsing this view, a spokesperson for the Republican Party, Elizabeth Pipko, said in a press interaction on November 7 that the President-elect Trump wants to see Israel wrap up its wars soon, with decisive victories.
The internal dynamics within Israel too indicate that prospects for an early ceasefire have been buried deep, at least for some time. The biggest indication towards this is the sacking of Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on November 5. While Netanyahu claimed that this was the result of a “crisis of trust,” Gallant said that his removal was due to disagreements on three critical issues: there should be no exceptions for military service, that a national inquiry was needed to learn lessons from October 7, and the hostages should be brought back as soon as possible. He added that a ceasefire deal was necessary to get the remaining hostages back from Gaza if Israel makes “painful concessions” that it “can bear”.
Adding fuel to the fire and pushing back ceasefire prospects further, on November 12, Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for an Israeli annexation of the occupied West Bank and added that he has already ordered his department to prepare for this annexation. At a press conference, Smotrich said, “The time has come to apply [Israeli] sovereignty to the settlements in Judea and Samaria (the Biblical term by which some Israelis refer to the occupied West Bank).” A day earlier, Israel’s newly-appointed Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called the demand for a Palestinian state “not realistic,” shortly after Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas had reiterated his demand for a “sovereign” country.
Hamas too is unwilling to bow down under pressure. Despite heavy losses in the conflict, an almost complete blockade of Gaza by Israel, and losses to its top leadership, Ismail Haniyeh on July 20 and Yahya Sinwar on October 16, Hamas has rejected any proposal for a temporary halt to the war and has reiterated its insistence on a lasting ceasefire. “The idea of a temporary pause in the war, only to resume aggression later, is something we have already expressed our position on. Hamas supports a permanent end to the war, not a temporary one,” said a senior Hamas official Taher al-Nunu in an interaction with the press recently.
A helpless international community
Various ceasefire proposals too have failed to find any traction. The latest one put forth by Egypt last month proposed a two-day ceasefire to begin with. During this period, four Israeli hostages held by Hamas were proposed to be exchanged for some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. The temporary truce would allow much-needed humanitarian aid to be delivered to the Gaza Strip, and this “small deal” could then continue with renewed negotiations over a more comprehensive hostage and ceasefire agreement. The proposal however failed to appeal to either Israel or Hamas.
The failed UN Security Council resolution is despairing for hundreds and thousands trapped in Gaza who fear death every day and night. It also lays bare the futility and absolute helplessness of the international community to bring an end to the war, mostly due to strong positions taken by one or more of the “Big Five” at the UN. The whole purpose of the UN as a global platform for mediating peace too has been brought into serious question. Even before this resolution, the UN Security Council had passed a resolution in June 2024 that endorsed the “Biden Plan” for a three-phase ceasefire; it was passed without veto. But still, it could not ensure an end to the conflict as Israel dismissed it outright and there was nothing that anyone could do about it.
As winter sets in, all hopes for an early ceasefire are dying. The rare occurrence of snowfall in the Saudi Arabian desert a few days ago and the prospect of the remaining population in Gaza braving the winter in tents and temporary accommodation present a frightening reality. As Israel looks to make use of the window of two months before Trump takes over at president, Gaza looks doomed to suffer a cold and bloody winter.
Col. Rajeev Agarwal is a writer on global geopolitics and security. He is a former Director in the Ministry of External Affairs, a former Director in Military Intelligence (International Relations), and a former Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi (IDSA), New Delhi. His X handle is @rajeev1412.
