Will Trump’s return force Netanyahu to end the Gaza war?

The former ally’s anti-war stance could force the Israeli Prime Minister to wrap up the military campaign before the new US presidency begins.

US President-elect Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington, DC, on January 28, 2020. Netanyahu most likely hoped that the man with whom he has a close relationship and who delivered multiple diplomatic victories for Israel would triumph. | Photo Credit: MANDEL NGAN/AFP

On November 5, while the US electorate was lining up to cast its crucial vote in a bitterly fought election campaign for the next US President, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he had fired the country’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant. Netanyahu said that a “crisis of trust” led to his decision, adding that Foreign Minister Israel Katz would replace him.

Gallant said his removal was due to disagreements on three critical issues: there should be no exceptions for military service; a national inquiry was needed to learn lessons from October 7; and the hostages should be brought back as soon as possible. He said he believed that it was possible to get the remaining hostages back from Gaza if Israel makes “painful concessions” which it “can bear”.

The disagreements with the former Defence Minister are, however, not new. Even before the war in Gaza broke out on October 7 last year, Netanyahu had fired Yoav Gallant in March 2023, when the latter spoke out against Netanyahu’s controversial plans to overhaul the justice system, especially the government’s decisive control over the committee that appoints judges. Facing tough opposition within the Cabinet and mass protests all over the country, Gallant was reinstated.

Even during the ongoing war in Gaza, disagreements between the two leaders and public statements have been quite evident. In May this year, Gallant publicly criticised Netanyahu over his indecision on who will govern Gaza after Hamas is defeated. Addressing journalists, Gallant had said: “The military campaign must end with a diplomatic action. The day after Hamas can only be achieved via elements that would constitute an alternative to Hamas.” He added that this had not yet been discussed in the War Cabinet. Warning against the continuation of the war strategy of complete annihilation of Hamas, he said, “The key to this goal is military action and the establishment of a governing alternative in Gaza”, and that inaction would only “erode our military achievements, reduce the pressure on Hamas and sabotage the chances of achieving a framework for the release of hostages”.

Reacting sharply and almost immediately, Netanyahu said that there will be no discussion on who governs Gaza before Hamas is completely eliminated, adding that he is “not ready to replace Hamastan with Fatahstan”.

The differences with the Defence Minister are not isolated as Netanyahu has faced repeated opposition against his decisions on handling the war in Gaza and the war objectives, which many within and outside Israel have termed as unrealistic and unachievable. Benny Gantz, a former Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Minister in the War Cabinet had first issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu in May asking him to end the war soon, demanding an agreed-upon vision for the Gaza conflict that would include stipulating who might rule the territory after Hamas’ defeat, and warning that he would quit the coalition if there are no concrete answers. He finally quit the War Cabinet in June. Facing tough opposition from another member of the War Cabinet, Gadi Eisenkot, again a former Chief of Staff of the IDF and leader of the National Unity Party, who too quit the War Cabinet, Netanyahu had to disband the War Cabinet on June 17.

Within the military too, Netanyahu has faced stiff opposition. The current IDF Chief of Staff, General Herzi Halevi, was quoted in May criticising Netanyahu for the failure to develop and declare a so-called “day-after” strategy. He added that “as long as there isn’t a diplomatic move to develop a governing body in the Strip that isn’t Hamas, we’ll have to act again and again in other places to dismantle Hamas’s infrastructure”.

A Palestinian woman walks past a mural depicting President-elect Donald Trump on Israel’s controversial separation wall in Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank on November 5, 2024. | Photo Credit: Hazem Bader

Again, on June 15, after a setback on the battlefield in Rafah, resulting in the death of eight IDF soldiers, Halevi said the IDF is on the verge of militarily defeating Hamas, which will be achieved soon, after inflicting damage on the remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah. In such a case, there is no need for concern about ending the war in this format while striving for a deal to release the hostages, recommending that Israel should “declare victory, and go home”. Again, on June 19, Israeli Army spokesperson Brigadier General Daniel Hagari, in an interview with Channel 13 News in Israel, stated that the “idea of destroying Hamas is throwing sand in the face of the Israeli public”.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has also been at odds with his principal benefactor, the US. Despite many ceasefire deals offered including the “Biden Plan”, which was presented in May and initially agreed to by Israel, Netanyahu has not been keen on any ceasefire proposal. He has publicly stated that the IDF will continue to operate and stay in Gaza till the war objectives are achieved. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has been in the region 11 times since the war broke out, has not been able to convince Israel to call off the war. Even after the killing of Hamas chief and architect of the October 7, 2023, attack, Yahya Sinwar, on October 16 this year, Netanyahu is not ready to relent. This, despite Blinken urging Netanyahu during his meeting on October 23 that Israel should use its tactical victories against Hamas and Hezbollah in recent times and pursue an “enduring strategic success” in Gaza, adding that: “[T]here really are two things left to do: Get the hostages home and bring the war to an end with an understanding of what will follow.”

Within Europe and many other nations across the world, there is growing disenchantment against Israel, especially with regard to the indiscriminate killings of civilians, which has already crossed 43,000, with the majority of them being children and women. Israel’s refusal to let critical humanitarian aid enter Gaza and its decision to ban UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East), the principal UN agency tasked to distribute aid in Gaza, has drawn sharp criticism too.

The US election has drawn to a close and therefore the window of opportunity that Israel had to operate with impunity is fast getting over. With Trump set to become the US President again, Israel will hope that the kind of support Trump offered Israel in his first term will still be forthcoming. However, with Trump opposed to wars, whether his support this time would include an extension of war in the region, is a big question mark. Media reports indicate that Trump has already told Netanyahu to clear up the mess and end the war before his presidency commences.

Netanyahu finds himself in a tight bind, both at home and abroad. The sacking of the Defence Minister is only a manifestation of the opposition and anger within Israel on his handling of the war, especially the inability to get the hostages back home. He had a clear advantage after the missile strikes into Iran to declare victory and end the war. His refusal to do so and insistence on carrying on with his “unrealistic” war objectives have put him in a position where the option of an “honourable exit” is becoming remote with every passing day. Meanwhile, Iran has declared that it is going to launch a counter-retaliation to the Israeli strike of October 26, a step that may lead to further escalation.

One can only hope that with the drama and suspense of the US election now over, Israel will look at alternatives to end the war.

Col Rajeev Agarwal is a writer on global geopolitics and security. He is a former Director in the Ministry of External Affairs, a former Director in Military Intelligence (International Relations) and a former Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi (IDSA), New Delhi. His X handle is @rajeev1412.