BNP grows restless as Yunus’ reform agenda pushes Bangladesh parliamentary election to 2026

With caretaker rule extending beyond the expected three months, political parties fear an open-ended transition, demand clear timeline.

Bangladesh Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus meets US President Joe Biden at the UN General Assembly meeting, New York, on September 25. | Photo Credit: Chief Adviser of Bangladesh/X.com

In all likelihood, the next Parliamentary election in Bangladesh may not be held before early 2026. The caretaker government headed by Muhammad Yunus has made it clear that no elections will be held until the proposed reforms to clean the system are completed. However, political parties want elections to be held earlier and are insisting that reforms be completed soon.

But irrespective of whether the election is held two years later or at an earlier date, all attempts are being made to ensure that former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and most leaders of the Awami League are made ineligible to contest future elections in Bangladesh.

This means not only that will Hasina be prevented from forming a future government in Bangladesh, her party will also not be allowed to contest elections or emerge as a formidable opposition in future.

Chhatra League, the students’ wing of the Awami League, was recently banned by the caretaker government under the Anti-Terrorism Act. It has been charged with indulging in a number of criminal activities, including murder, rape, torture, harassment, and threatening public safety over the past 15 years.

There is a feeling in political circles in Bangladesh that a similar fate could befall the Awami League and its leaders in the coming days. But legal ambiguity remains about Hasina’s political status. Her close supporters claim that constitutionally she still remains the Prime Minister of Bangladesh as she did not submit her resignation to the country’s President in person. Therefore, irrespective of the claim of her opponents, Hasina continues to be the Prime Minister.

Moreover, Yunus has said an election cannot be held before reforms are completed but has not given any timeframe to finish the work. Sources say that a realistic timeframe for the reforms to be completed could take at least until the end of next year, and elections are therefore likely in early 2026.

Such a possibility has created anxiety and confusion among political parties who had initially thought the caretaker would be in place for only three months before the election. They now realise the emerging scenario does not suggest an early election.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which was projecting itself as the main opposition during Hasina’s 15-year rule, is in particular getting restless. It supports reforms but does not want the timeframe to be open-ended. It has asked Yunus for a timeframe to complete the reforms as this will also help the party carry out its own reforms and prepare for the election.

Yunus has argued that the caretaker government’s aim is to create an inclusive and pluralistic democracy and to create an environment where a free, fair, and participatory election can be held. “Our task now is to carry out vital reforms in our electoral system, judiciary, local government, media, economy and education,” Yunus told foreign leaders.

However, the anxiety of political parties does not match the mood within civil society, where there is a strong desire for thorough reforms of political and other structures in Bangladesh. Most people agree that the years of abuse of these institutions by successive governments has thoroughly corroded them.

“There is popular support in Bangladesh for the reform Yunus has undertaken,” says M. Humayun Kabir, president of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute, a Dhaka-based think-tank. “All the institutions, including the banking system that is the backbone of the country’s economic network, were destroyed during Hasina’s tenure and it will take some time to get them back in shape,” a Bangladeshi business leader said.

The impatience among political parties could continue to rise if the reforms take too long. In addition, if the caretaker government fails to show the benefits of reforms soon, especially in checking inflation, corruption, and improving law and order, it could lead to disenchantment and a sharp decline in Yunus’ popularity. If that happens, it will put Bangladesh through another spell of violence and unrest, observers fear.

Today, there is a strong anti-Hasina sentiment in the country. But if the caretaker government’s stock nosedives, there is apprehension among other political parties that it could turn public sentiment in favour of the former Prime Minister.

Students wave Bangladesh’s national flag during a protest march organised by Students Against Discrimination to mark one month since former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepped down, in Dhaka, on September 5, 2024. | Photo Credit: RAJIB DHAR

Hasina, the longest-serving leader of Bangladesh was ousted on August 5, when a student’s protest turned into a people’s insurrection. The resentment that had been building up against her autocratic rule finally exploded into mass anger as the death toll of students in police firing and clashes with pro-government forces rose alarmingly.

She fled and took shelter in India minutes before a mob entered her official residence and ransacked the building. Soon the city of Dhaka and other towns of Bangladesh were engulfed in violent rioting and incidents of attacks on Hindus and other religious minorities.

Although the situation was brought under control to some extent, the country has not yet been able to return to normalcy. More importantly, the economy has not shown any signs of recovering and the prices of essential goods have continued to rise, adding to the misery of the people.

The students who led the protest and took credit for Hasina’s ouster brought in Yunus, an internationally known economist, to stabilise the country and put the economy back on track. Their representatives are now part of the current administration.

The Army has also lent its support to the caretaker government until the election is held. The army has decided to back the caretaker government for at least the next 18 months. The backing of students and the Army for Yunus has also been bolstered by the Democrat Party-led US government’s support to the new regime in Dhaka.

US hand?

There was a strong view among sections of observers that the US had a hand in toppling the Hasina government and that it used the students’ protest and the rising people’s anger against the ruling Awami League to encourage the insurrection and have Yunus installed.

It was alleged by some experts that the US was unhappy with Hasina for pursuing an independent foreign policy that led her to build strong ties with China while maintaining traditional and strategic relations with India as well as encouraging other partners such as Russia to help in Bangladesh’s development.

While Hasina maintained cordial relations with the US, her refusal to allow Washington, DC, access to two strategic islands in the Bay of Bengal, which would have helped the US keep a closer watch on Chinese activities in the Indo-Pacific region, frustrated the Americans.

Washington has vehemently denied its involvement in Hasina’s ouster and described such insinuations as “laughable”. However, suspicion about its involvement persists because of the developments that took place in the following weeks. Yunus’s close relationship with the Democratic Party stalwarts, former President Bill Clinton and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has always been a subject of speculation, as many felt it gave the US more space in Bangladeshi affairs.

It is widely believed also that many important officials in the US State Department under the Joe Biden government are Clinton proteges who were instrumental in the US taking a tough line on Hasina’s democratic backsliding. Yunus’s recent visit to the US and remarks at a Clinton Foundation meeting yet again reaffirmed his closeness with the Clintons. But his remarks at a reception at the Foundation indicated that the students’ protest was pre-planned and executed according to a script rather than being spontaneous outrage, as claimed by student leaders. This has embarrassed Yunus admirers in the country and put his team in a spot.

Sceptics also wonder whether under a new US Presidency, which will be in place from next year, the same support that Yunus now enjoys from the US will remain unchanged.

Yunus’s assertion that elections will not be held before reforms are completed also has the potential of turning into a contentious issue between the BNP and the caretaker government. Many BNP leaders have threatened to take to the streets if the election is put off indefinitely.

However, the BNP is also in a bind. There are several criminal cases pending against its leaders, including Tarique Rahman, its de facto head. Unless the cases are withdrawn, these leaders will not be able to participate in the election. The BNP has to maintain cooperative relations with the caretaker government until the cases are withdrawn. This may be true for many other political leaders as well, all of whom have several criminal cases against them and were jailed by Hasina.

But the proposed steps to marginalise Hasina and the Awami League are turning out into a common cause to unite all of them. The possibility of slapping criminal cases on Hasina and her Awami League MPs and leaders, which has begun, can effectively prevent all of them too from contesting future elections.

During her rule Hasina had used the pending criminal charges against her political opponents, including BNP leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, to bar them from contesting for a period of five years. Now the new regime in Dhaka may extend it to a 10-year ban.

If the ban is effective, there is also the important question of who will then occupy the left-of-centre political space in the country that was so far occupied by the Awami League. If the Jamaat-e-Islami, which is trying to form a wide alliance with all Islamist parties succeeds, then the tussle for the right-of-centre position between the Jamaat and the BNP could push the latter to adopt a more centrist stance in its attempt to attract the erstwhile Hasina voters, say observers.

But the jury is still out on this.

In this year’s Pakistan election, despite the army’s best efforts to ban Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, supporters of the former Prime Minister contested as independent candidates and won most seats. There is no guarantee that the same might not happen with Hasina and her Awami League supporters in Bangladesh.

Moreover, Hasina’s status as the Prime Minister still remains unresolved. All the carefully crafted plans and their implementation can come undone, if that comes into play.

Pranay Sharma is a commentator on political and foreign affairs-related developments. He has worked in senior editorial positions in leading media organisations.