Agnipath: Playing with fire?

The general election is over, and with it the opposition’s jibes over the Agnipath scheme, but concerns about its sociopolitical implications persist.

Aspiring Agniveers undergo a physical test during a recruitment drive Patna in December 2022.  | Photo Credit: PTI

On July 17, the Haryana government announced that it would provide a 10 per cent quota for Agniveers in the recruitment of constables, mining and forest guards, jail wardens, and special police officers. Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini’s announcement of the horizontal reservation scheme was clearly meant to counter any negative fallout from the unpopular scheme in the upcoming Assembly election.

In recent times, several States including Odisha, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Rajasthan have announced that Agniveers would be granted reservation in the State’s uniformed services after serving in the armed forces. Following an uproar in Parliament in July, Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai announced that the government had decided to implement a 10 per cent horizontal reservation for ex-Agniveers in the recruitment for the post of constable (general duty)/rifleman in the Central Armed Police Forces and the Assam Rifles. “Relaxation in upper age limit and exemption from the physical efficiency test will also be given,” he added.

Since its introduction in June 2022, the Agnipath scheme has been a subject of heated debate. While the scheme has replaced the old military recruitment process, an Agniveer receives a lower salary than a soldier and only 30 days of annual leave. Additionally, Agniveers cannot marry while they are in service, and they do not get a pension or medical and other facilities on completion of the four-year tenure.

Under the scheme, an Agniveer in the age group of 17.5-to 21 years is inducted for a period of four years; only 25 per cent of the recruits will be re-enlisted to begin a new term as soldiers after they complete their service duration, while the remaining 75 per cent are demobilised. If they die in harness, their families are not entitled to a regular pension.

Not easy even for ex-servicemen

As such, ex-servicemen even now struggle to land a job after they hang up their boots. Take the case of Praveen Kumar, who was part of a four-man team of the Navy’s elite Marcos commandos that was at the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel in Mumbai during the November 26, 2008, terror attacks in the city. He took five bullets that day during action along with personnel from the fire forces and other security forces to save the 200-odd guests held hostage at the hotel. After retiring at 33 (he is now 39), and following a “long and unsuccessful” job search, Kumar pursued higher education, earned a law degree, and now practises at Delhi’s Karkardooma District Court.

Speaking about the Agnipath scheme, he said: “Mere verbal assurances mean nothing as ex-servicemen aged between 33 and 60 end up working in private security agencies or remain unemployed. Legislation is needed to ensure guaranteed post-service employment for Agniveers in both government and corporate sectors.”

Major General (retd) Yash Mor stressed that the Agnipath scheme needed a thorough debate and review, incorporating feedback from the ground. “I wonder why the armed forces leadership endorsed the Agnipath scheme in the first place,” he told Frontline. “If it were truly a beneficial policy, as it is being projected in the media, it should have been introduced at the highest leadership levels.”

The Gorkha Regiment marching during a Republic Day Parade dress rehearsal, in New Delhi in 2015.   | Photo Credit: S. SUBRAMANIUM

In his memoir Four Stars of Destiny, General Manoj Mukund Naravane, who retired as the 28th Chief of the Army Staff on April 30, 2022, touched upon the issue. The book’s release is awaiting approval from the Ministry of Defence. But excerpts released in December 2023 claimed that Agnipath was a surprise to the Indian Army and a “bolt out of the blue” for the Navy and the Air Force. The excerpted portion said the first year’s starting monthly salary for Agniveer recruits was initially proposed to be an all-inclusive Rs.20,000. “This was just not acceptable. Here, we were talking about a trained soldier who was expected to lay down his life for the country. Surely, a soldier cannot be compared with a daily-wage labourer? Based on our very strong recommendations, this was later raised to Rs.30,000 per month,” the author said.

Subsequently, the scheme was endorsed by the three service chiefs. The Defence Minister, the Prime Minister, and most recently, the Union Finance Minister have all endorsed the scheme. In June this year, Gen. Naravane noted in an article that if the Agnipath recruitment model proved effective, it could be extended to all Central government positions, including allied services and the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF), “with the right tweeks”. When contacted, Naravane told Frontline that he had “nothing more to add”.

A move to cut costs?

Analysts believe that the initiative was designed to address the mounting costs of salaries and pensions. “Our defence pensions alone is bigger than Pakistan’s entire defence budget. It’s also greater than the combined allocations for MGNREGA and midday meal schemes for our schoolchildren,” said the defence expert Sushant Singh. He also pointed out that the defence pensions budget was soaring, particularly following the introduction of the One Rank, One Pension scheme and the Seventh Pay Commission recommendations. Singh says the Narendra Modi government was reluctant to admit its financial difficulties in sustaining the armed forces. “It’s a highly nationalistic government that rides piggyback on the armed forces,” he said.

“There is no doubt that the Indian armed forces need reform. Agnipath is, however, not that reform,” he said. “No amount of government spin can hide the fact that a weakened military, courtesy Agnipath, leaves India more vulnerable and exposed.”

A strain on Nepal ties

Nepal’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Arzu Rana Deuba was on an official visit to India from August 18 to 22. But the two governments are yet to comment on the prevailing stalemate over the recruitment of Nepali men under the Agnipath scheme. Nepal claims this is not in consonance with the Tripartite Agreement of 1947, which governs the Gorkha recruitment in British and Indian Armies.

Currently, approximately 32,000 Nepal-domiciled Gorkhas serve in the Indian Army’s Gorkha regiments, alongside Indian soldiers. However, their numbers are rapidly declining. For four years now, Gorkhas from Nepal have not been recruited into the Indian Army, initially because of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequently because of the introduction of the Agnipath scheme.

“What is concerning is that the youths with military training of four years could be used by some unwanted elements in Nepal once they return,” Pradip Gyawali, former Nepal Foreign Minister and leader of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), was quoted as having said in The Hindu in January. “We should not forget the fact that we are still in post-conflict transition, seeking to conclude the peace process after the end of the Maoist war. Our vulnerability will increase.”

Before recruitment got suspended, between 1,300 and 1,500 Nepali citizens were enlisted annually. There are at present more than 1,25,000 Indian Army pensioners in Nepal. Given the frosty bilateral relations between Nepal and India, observers believe the Agnipath scheme could bolster anti-India sentiment in the Himalayan nation, prompting the Nepal government to allow Gorkhas to join China’s People’s Liberation Army. However, in the past, both Nepal and China had denied that any such proposal was under consideration.

Major General Yash Mor pointed out that it “typically takes eight to nine years” to train a non-commissioned officer who can handle an independent weapons system and supervise a team. “The Agnipath scheme appears to only prepare soldiers for basic tasks such as guard duty and weapon maintenance,” he said.

Maj. Gen Mor fears that the scheme may undermine loyalty, cohesion, and camaraderie and foster competition over cooperation in the forces. “The Agnipath scheme should have been tested in police or paramilitary forces or implemented on a pilot basis. If not entirely discarded, it could be introduced alongside regular recruitment with a retention ratio of 75 per cent instead of 25,” he said.

Stressing that India could not afford to replicate the “Tour of Duty” recruitment models used by Israel, Singapore, or South Korea, he said: “Unlike these countries, we share a 7,000 km border with adversaries like China and Pakistan. A soldier who serves only four years and lacks social and economic security may be less motivated to risk his life, potentially affecting his performance at the Line of Control and Line of Actual Control.” Before Agnipath, over 60,000 recruits were inducted into the Army every year. The COVID-induced three-year recruitment freeze meant that 1.80 lakh vacancies remain unfilled. Under the Agnipath scheme, only 45,000 are inducted each year for all three services.

Citing the example of the Russia-Ukraine war, Major General (retd) G.D. Bakshi said: “We have seen the plight of armies that rely on short Tour of Duty soldiers. One fails to understand why the government is reducing the soldier strength of the forces. We are already witnessing results in the form of increased terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir and a troops build-up in eastern Ladakh.” Calling the Agniveer scheme “backdoor conscription”, he said: “It could destabilise the Indian Army.”

Speaking to Frontline, Admiral (retd) Arun Prakash acknowledged that “right-sizing” of the armed forces needed serious consideration but said: “Given the nature of security threats facing India and the extended land and maritime boundaries that require to be safeguarded, the armed forces need modern weapons and equipment as well as adequate trained manpower to deploy them.”

Scheme has taken the shine off the Army as a career option

Has the scheme diminished the appeal of the armed forces as a career option for rural youth? Yash Mor seemed to think so: “Now young men, aged 16-17, are seeking opportunities abroad even through donkey routes. For them, the armed forces’ appeal as a career option has diminished. They once saw the armed forces as a prestigious career choice. Now, it is perceived as a last resort, with potential recruits considering it only after exhausting other options in paramilitary and police forces.”

BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya kicked up a major controversy in 2023 when he said that former Agniveers would be given priority in the recruitment of security guards for the BJP’s offices.

In Himachal Pradesh, where armed forces personnel, both serving and retired, represent a significant voting bloc, Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu asserted that the Agnipath scheme deterred young people from joining the armed forces.

Brigadier (retd) Madan Sheel Sharma, chairman of the Himachal Pradesh Ex-Servicemen Corporation, who inaugurated the Adani Group’s Agniveer Training Centre at Barmana last year, declined to comment when contacted.

Ex-Servicemen Department (AICC) staging a protest against the Agnipath scheme in New Delhi in June. | Photo Credit: SUSHIL KUMAR VERMA

Notably, when the scheme was launched, even some ruling party leaders such as Capt. (retd) Amarinder Singh, former Chief Minister of Punjab, expressed reservations. After the opposition turned the heat on the government on the scheme during the 2024 general election, National Democratic Alliance partners the Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) also articulated their concerns.

Initially heralded as a “game changer” for the armed forces, Agnipath has recently been marred by troubling headlines. Since the first batch of Agniveers joined the Army in August 2023, reports say that at least 20 Agniveers have died, with a significant number of these deaths attributed to suicide. Col (retd) Rohit Chaudhary, chairman, Ex-Servicemen Department, All India Congress Committee (AICC), raised questions on the circumstances under which the suicides happened. “Was their training adequate? Did they have the mental resilience to cope with the pressure? Immediately after basic training for six months, were they thrust into operational conditions?” he asked. “After a 26-year career, I saw only one suicide when I left the Army at 47. Suicides are rare among trained soldiers.”

Highlights

• The Agnipath scheme, touted as a cost-cutting measure, has sparked fierce debate over its potential to weaken India’s military readiness and social fabric.
• While states scramble to offer quotas for Agniveers, experts warn of diminished training time, reduced loyalty, and the risk of weaponising disillusioned youth.
• The scheme’s rollout has already seen a surge in Agniveer suicides and criminal incidents, raising alarm bells about its long-term implications for national security and stability.

Demobilised Agniveers may threaten rule of law

Some Agniveers have been caught for alleged criminal activities. On August 13, an Agniveer from the Army was arrested along with six accomplices for a daring heist in Bhopal. The group allegedly seized jewellery and cash worth over Rs.50 lakh from a shop after holding an employee at gunpoint. It emerged during interrogations that they had plans to target a bank in Rewa next. In July, the Mohali Police arrested three individuals, including an Agniveer who had quit the Army, for involvement in a vehicle-snatching incident.

Concerns are being raised that demobilised Agniveers, who have basic training in weapons-handling, can pose a threat to the rule of law. There is a considerable body of academic research and literary work that has highlighted the role of Indian soldiers demobilised after the Second World War in the large-scale ethnic cleansing and migration that took place during Partition. “Several Hollywood movies depict soldiers demobilised after the Vietnam War engaging in violence against civilians on the streets. Similar scenarios have occurred in Rwanda and Yugoslavia,” Sushant Singh told Frontline.

Drawing parallels with the current situation in India, he underscored the potential risks of the scheme, suggesting that it might have far-reaching societal implications. “India’s economy is faltering, and the state’s monopoly on violence is gradually eroding. Introducing young people trained in combat into a politically charged, majoritarian environment could exacerbate instability and lead to unforeseen consequences,” he said. Maintaining that the number of Muslims in the Army was just 2 to 3 per cent, he said that Agnipath resonated with the ruling party’s ideological father V.D. Savarkar’s call to “Hinduise politics and militarise Hindudom”.