Karnataka: Congress still hunting for a compelling strategy

The big issue for a confident Congress in Karnataka seems to be its inability to find tools to counter the BJP’s communal propaganda machine.

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge with Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar and others during the unveiling of a new statue of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, in Bengaluru, on March 13, 2024. | Photo Credit: PTI

For the INDIA bloc, Karnataka is crucial because it is the only large State in the country where the Congress is in power. It would like to make major gains here. Karnataka is the BJP’s cornerstone of its project to penetrate southern India.

Five years ago, in the lead-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha election, a wobbly coalition of the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular), or JD(S), was ruling Karnataka and had extended its fragile State-level post-election alliance, firmed up in 2018, to the Lok Sabha election. When faced with the blitzkrieg of a high-octane campaign launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, valiantly shouldered by B.S. Yediyurappa, who was gunning for the Chief Minister’s post, the uneasy alliance was eviscerated.

Both the Congress and the JD(S) had to remain content with 1 seat each while the BJP walked away with 25 seats and an astounding 51.7 per cent of the vote share. One seat was won by an independent who later extended her support to the BJP. Riding on this tsunami, an emboldened BJP even toppled the State government three months later.

Will BJP-JD(S) alliance work?

Things are vastly different now: the Congress has a comfortable majority and is ruling Karnataka with Siddaramaiah as Chief Minister. The JD(S), contrary to its foundational emphasis on secularism, has stitched an alliance with the BJP and is hoping to contest in at least four seats in its traditional strongholds in south Karnataka. For most of its political existence since its establishment in 1999, the JD(S) has ensured that its secular identity is at the forefront of its public image. In early 2020, former Chief Minister and JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy even lent his support to the anti-CAA protests that were taking place in the country by reading out a poem on the floor of the Assembly. Suffering from an existential crisis after the 2023 Karnataka election, the party has done an astonishing volte-face by joining forces with the proudly saffron party. So, will this alliance pay dividends for either party?

P.S. Jayaramu, former political science professor at Bangalore University, said: “It is difficult to give a categorical answer. To think that the transfer of votes will automatically take place is not a correct proposition. However, this may happen in constituencies where the Congress candidate is not popular.”

As part of its strategy, the Congress is showcasing the implementation of its five guarantees and calling out the injustice meted out to State governments by the Central government in the devolution of funds from the Union. Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar have not only been speaking out about these issues, they even marched to Delhi in a highly visible move.

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge with Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar during a press conference announcing the 4th and 5th guarantees “Shramik Nyay” and “Hissedari Nyay” for the Lok Sabha election, in Bengaluru on March 16. | Photo Credit: ANI

Will this be sufficient to sway the voters? A. Narayana, a political commentator associated with Azim Premji University, said: “In itself, the injustice in the devolution of funds is not an emotive issue and may not strike a chord with the people. The Congress leadership from the State went to Delhi and protested, which was good, but the issue has not been sustained by the party’s communications team. The BJP has also accused the Congress’ five guarantees of burdening the State exchequer and linked it to the paucity of funds, but the fact that the State’s own resources and the Central government’s share of funds are separate has not been sufficiently highlighted by the Congress.”

After its massive defeat in the Assembly election last year, the BJP struggled for several months to find its feet and even kept delaying the choosing of a Leader of the Opposition, finally appointing R. Ashoka to that position only last November.

Highlights

• For the INDIA bloc, Karnataka is crucial because it is the only large State in the country where the Congress is in power.
• Suffering from an existential crisis after the 2023 Assembly elction, the JD(S) has joined hands with the BJP, which is facing issues with candidate selection, leading to major unrest among its cadre.
• The Congress is showcasing the implementation of its five guarantees and calling out the injustice meted out to State governments by the Centre in the devolution of funds.

A return to polarisation tactics

The party also seems to have fallen back on polarisation tactics to lure the voter. The BJP’s focus on non-issues such as the sloganeering in favour of Rajya Sabha member-elect Naseer Hussain are a tested ploy to galvanise voters on communal lines. “The Congress seems to be clueless in dealing with this and does not have a strategy to even counter blatant falsehoods by the BJP because it is apprehensive that it will lose Hindu votes. This is a major problem and it makes them look weak and uncertain,” said Narayana.

Another factor that can work against the Congress is the fact that the BJP has been the party of choice for voters when it comes to Lok Sabha elections. In the past four elections, the BJP won 18, 19, 17, and 25 seats respectively, accompanied by a steady rise in vote share. Rajashekhar Hatgundi, political analyst and a columnist with the Kannada newspaper Vartha Bharathi, explained this voter behaviour: “Karnataka’s voters have preferred the BJP from 2004 because they are consciously voting on issues of nationalism. When it comes to the State, their muddled choice reflects a commitment to a secular milieu, but they have succumbed to the narrative built by the BJP against the Congress when it comes to national issues.”

But the BJP is facing issues with candidate selection, leading to major unrest among its cadre. Will the persona of Modi be able to overcome this challenge within the party? “Modi’s charisma is fading in Karnataka, and issues such as the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in defiance of Hindu spiritual leaders’ decrees shows his desperation,” said the political analyst D. Umapathy. “In Karnataka, there will be a clash between the charisma of Modi and that of Siddaramaiah. Shivakumar is standing resolutely with the Chief Minister, and it is not going to be easy for Modi.”