Dalits rally behind Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh, but will she garner Muslim votes?

The 2024 Lok Sabha election in India’s most populous State will determine if BSP, founded exactly 40 years ago, will call the shots here.

BSP supremo Mayawati arriving in Lucknow to cast her vote on May 20. | Photo Credit: SANDEEP SAXENA

Idols of Dalit icon Baba Saheb Bhimrao Ambedkar outnumber those of deities at the karkhanas (workshops) of Murti Manufacturers on the highway to Azamgarh, at Terhi Kaptanganj village in Uttar Pradesh (UP). A youth, Dharmendra Prajapati, says “Baba Saheb’s statues having been selling more this election season; usually their sales spike only around April 14, his anniversary.” Lal Chandra Prajapati, who is engrossed in plastering a cement idol of Ambedkar says people from villages around the area buy them.”

Outside Biwipur village in Azamgarh, these idols of Ambedkar greet you too. In Moolchand Gadanpur Harijan Basti in Azamgarh’s Lalganj town, blue Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) flags flutter. It is a Scheduled Castes (SC) dominated Lok Sabha seat, where Murati Devi and Chintamani vouch support for BSP. “Ambedkar statues are a sign that you are entering a Harijan basti. This began after Mayawati became Chief Minister for first time (1995),” says Kamlesh Yadav, who believes BSP, contesting from Lalganj, could make things difficult for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

In several Lok Sabha seats such as Sant Kabir Nagar, Lalganj, Azamgarh, Kushinagar and Ambedkar Nagar, not only Jatav but even Jatav Dalits have come back to the Dalit party this election, which is a worrying sign for both the Congress and the BJP. The Samajwadi Party (SP), which was anathema to Dalit voters, has been trying recently to reach out to them; Akhilesh Yadav offers the idea of PDA—picchde (backward classes or OBCs), Dalits and alpsankhyak (minorities)—but there are no signs of even non Jatav Dalit voters warming up to SP in large numbers.

Ambedkar’s statues take a prominent place at this workshop in Azamgarh district, UP | Photo Credit: Anand Mishra

The BSP meanwhile, has been shuffling candidates. In Jaunpur district, strongman Dhananjay Singh’s wife Srikala Reddy, earlier fielded by BJP, was considered a strong contender, but the BSP replaced her with its sitting MP Shyam Singh Yadav. Earlier in Mainpuri district, the BSP changed its candidate Gulshan Shakya and fielded Shiv Prasad Yadav, a move that could lead to a division of Yadav votes. In Mau district, the BSP has fielded a former MP Bal Krishna Chouhan, which has made the fight triangular and could possibly work to the advantage of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ally Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP). In Kushinagar district, the BSP has fielded a former Army personnel and party cadre Shubh Narayan Chauhan.

Mayawati’s recent decisions, such as taking away the responsibility of BSP’s national coordinator from her nephew Akash Anand, who was leading a spirited campaign, and changing the party’s winnable candidates in some constituencies such as Jaunpur has baffled BSP supporters but they still prefer to stick to her.

Ramswaroop Gautam from Rajgarh village of Kheri District says: “We are Ambedkariaties. Whether BSP wins or not, we will only vote for the haathi (elephant). He had voted for SP in the 2019 Lok Sabha election because SP had an alliance with BSP then.

‘Majority’ to ‘Everyone‘

But Harishchander from Lakhimpur Kheri district has an aura of resignation: “Now everyone has entered the BSP: Thakurs, Brahmins, Baniyas. Our fight was against them.” His dilemma runs parallel to BSP’s growth as a party and dilution of its firm anti-upper caste position when Kanshi Ram set up the Dalit Shoshit Samaj Sangharsh Samiti (DS4) in 1981; their slogan was “Brahmin, Thakur, Baniya chor, baaki sab hain DS4” (Besides Brahmins, Thakurs, and Baniyas, all others are DS4). DS4 was absorbed into the BSP in 1984.

But political adjustments began soon after. BSP changed its sharp slogans to “Brahmin shankh bajayega, haathi badhta jaayega” (as the Brahmin blows the conch, the elephant will marching on), when the party was wooing Brahmins in the run-up to the 2007 Assembly election; this was the only State poll in which the BSP got a thumping majority to form a government, winning 206 out of 403 Assembly seats and securing 36.7 per cent of the votes.

After the BSP’s loss in 2012, Mayawati tried to orient the narrative, and by 2015, BSP replaced its “bahujan” (the majority) pitch with “sarvajan” (everyone). However, BJP sprang to power from oblivion in 2017 decimating both the SP and BSP.

Whether the BSP will able to contain the continuous decline in its vote percentage in successive defeats—in the Assembly elections in 2012, 2017, and 2022 and in the Lok Sabha elections since 2009—will become clear only on June 4.

In Ambedkar Nagar, it is the BSP versus two former BSP leaders contesting on BJP and SP tickets. BSP MP Ritesh Pandey, who had won the seat in 2019, and back in 2009, is now the BJP candidate. Even the SP candidate Lalji Verma was with the BSP until three years ago.

Muslim candidates

Meanwhile, the BSP has fielded former Nagar Palika chairman Qamar Hayat Ansari from Ambedkar Nagar. In the adjoining Kabir Nagar seat, BSP has fielded Mohammed Alam. Mayawati’s party has fielded 20 Muslims in UP this election but the community has not warmed to her enough amid the SP-Congress’s sustained campaigns to woo them. In 2017 and 2022 Assembly elections, the BSP fielded 99 and 88 Muslim candidates respectively.

BSP’s attempts at garnering Muslim support since the days of Kanshi Ram has not seen fruition till date and Mayawati’s recent moves of changing candidates to dent the SP’s prospects has only widened the trust chasm between her party and minority voters.

Clearly, Mayawati has the core voter in her grasp, but she needs more if she must be seen as a political force to reckon with in UP. Says a die-hard BSP supporter Siddhnath from Ambedkar Nagar: “Bahin ji jitni jaldi aail rahin, utni jaldi chali gain” (Behenji went away as fast as she arrived).

The 2024 Lok Sabha election will determine whether the Dalit party, founded exactly 40 years ago in 1984, will call the shots or end up as a foot note in the political history of India’s most populous State.