Japan, China struggle to find common ground

Amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, experts say Japan will find it tough to balance its ties to China and the US.

During their meeting, Hayashi (left) and Qin (right) addressed a raft of thorny issues plaguing relations between the two sides. | Photo Credit: Kyodo News/IMAGO

Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi met high-ranking Chinese officials, including Premier Li Qiang and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, on April 2 as both sides seek to find common ground amid rising tensions in the region. This is the first trip to China’s capital by a Japanese foreign minister in over three years, and comes after Chinese authorities recently arrested a Japanese national working for the pharmaceutical group Astellas on espionage charges.

According to the Foreign Ministry in Tokyo, at least 17 Japanese nationals have been detained by China on spying-related charges since 2014. Five Japanese nationals currently remain in Chinese detention, two of whom have already been tried and found guilty. While Hayashi called for transparency over the legal process regarding the detention, Qin responded that China “will handle [the case] according to the law”.

Apart from seeking the swift release of the Japanese national, Hayashi and Qin also addressed other important bilateral issues, including the territorial dispute over a cluster of disputed islets in the East China Sea, Japan’s decision to restrict the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, Beijing’s aggressive military posture near Taiwan and Tokyo’s planned release of treated radioactive water from around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant into the sea.

Tokyo worries about China-Russia ties

The meeting between Hayashi and Qin is aimed at stabilising the bilateral relationship at a time when mutual suspicion has been growing, said Kyoko Hatakeyama, a professor at the University of Niigata Prefecture in Japan.

“Japan hopes to maintain a good relationship with China, particularly when Beijing has strengthened its relationship with Russia,” she noted. “Tokyo hopes that strengthening relationship with China can be an incentive for Beijing to be a responsible power.”

With regard to the ongoing war in Ukraine, Hayashi called on China to play a responsible role in guaranteeing global peace and security. On a visit to Moscow in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping called Russian President Vladimir Putin his “dear friend” and further consolidated their “no-limits partnership”.

Territorial dispute and chip technology restrictions

Tokyo is also concerned about increased Chinese military collaboration with Russia and activities in the East China Sea, including the repeated entry of Chinese coast guard vessels into disputed waters near the cluster of uninhabited islands known as the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyu in China. While currently under Japanese administration, Beijing has claimed ownership of the disputed islets.

Meanwhile, Japan’s decisions to dramatically increase its defence budget and strengthen cooperation with allies like the US have caused China to question Tokyo’s intentions.

After Japan announced its decision to restrict the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment on March 31, Qin urged Tokyo not to join US efforts to contain China’s development. “The United States used bullying tactics to brutally suppress the Japanese semiconductor industry, and now it is repeating its old tricks against China,” Qin told his counterpart. He also accused Japan of being Washington’s “minion”.

Hayashi underlined that the restrictions were “consistent with international rules,” adding that they were “not aimed at a specific country”. The curbs are in line with similar measures from the US and the Netherlands aimed at restricting China’s ability to make advanced processor chips.

Striking a balance between China and the US

While geopolitical tensions with Beijing have forced Tokyo to deepen its security cooperation with the US and other like-minded allies, economic ties between Japan and China remain robust, with bilateral trade exceeding $370 billion (€340 billion) in 2021.

Hatakeyama from the University of Niigata Prefecture told DW that it’s difficult for Tokyo to determine whether it should prioritise economic ties with Beijing or deepen security cooperation with Washington. “Even though Japan wouldn’t align itself with the US completely, when asked to choose between the economy and national security, I think Japan will have to prioritize the latter,” she said.

Stephen Nagy, a political scientist at the International Christian University in Japan, said that by using a formula of “engagement, resilience, and deterrence,” Japan is attempting to maintain meaningful exchanges with China, through economic partnership and cooperation in areas like environmental issues, while initiating the process to diversify its supply chain away from the Chinese market.

Tensions over Taiwan

Tensions have also been rising between China and Japan over Taiwan. Beijing has claimed the island as its territory and vowed to reunify with the mainland, by force if necessary.

On April 2, Hayashi said he spoke to Qin about the “importance of ensuring peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”. Beijing said Qin warned Japan “not to interfere in the Taiwan issue or undermine China’s sovereignty in any form,” stressing that Taiwan is “at the core of China’s core interests”.

Yu-Hua Chen, a China expert at Akita International University, said China won’t reduce its military or diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, and it also would not reduce the number of military activities around the island. “In the coming years, China will push Taiwan much harder, and Japan will probably try to offer Taiwan more support too,” he said.

Nagy pointed out that Tokyo is joining forces with other democratic partners to deter Beijing from trying to use force to take Taiwan or the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. “They are working through arrangements like Quad to ensure that China can’t fundamentally rewrite the regional security architecture,” referring to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a US-led security alliance.