Hours after he was declared the winner of the presidential election, a beaming Recep Tayyip Erdogan marched into Istanbul on the 570th anniversary of the Turkish conquest of the historical metropolis. In the hotly contested presidential election, which went to a runoff, the incumbent president won 52.15 per cent of the vote while Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition’s joint candidate, got 47.85 per cent.
The motive behind choosing May 28 as the date for the runoff was not lost on many. For Erdogan, the symbolic reenactment of the conquest of Istanbul (Constantinople) by Ottoman Sultan Mehmet II—which led to the fall of the last Roman Empire in 1453—a day after the election served as a message to the West and to Turkish nationalists who supported him in the presidential election out of national pride, despite high inflation and a weakening economy.
Just a month ago, most pollsters had predicted the end of his 20-year rule as his popularity rating was just 32 per cent. But on May 14, during the first round of voting, it rose to 49.5 per cent, and in the second round on May 28, it rose to 52.15 per cent.
There are no simple explanations for this rapid turnaround. However, analysts said that it proved once again that elections in today’s world are won by the combination of the three Ms: man, machine, and message. Erdogan’s political machinations, skillful strategy, and vast resources forced the opposition to field the weaker and unimpressive candidate Kilicdaroglu rather than the high-profile Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. The unabashed support of the West and its media for Kilicdaroglu also gave Erdogan the leverage and message to invoke Turkish nationalism and pride.
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Interference by foreign powers in the elections had become such an issue in people’s minds that when this correspondent asked people in downtown Ankara about their mood or voting preference, the common refrain was that they were not willing talk to a foreign journalist about their elections, as it was their “internal business”.
Erdogan managed to keep the economic issues under wraps, repeatedly reminding the angry electorate of Western interference in domestic politics by pointing to US President Joe Biden’s 2020 statement to The New York Times in which he said he would encourage the Turkish opposition to defeat Erdogan at the ballot box.
“Biden gave the instruction that we have to overthrow Erdogan. I know that. All my people know that. The voters will give Biden the answer,” he said repeatedly at campaign events.
Erdogan addressing his supporters during a hospital opening ceremony, in Hatay May 21. | Photo Credit: VIA REUTERS
Deep-rooted nationalism
Historically, nationalism is Turkiye runs deep, as the country has been attacked at its northern and southern borders by Russia and Western powers, respectively, over the past 200 years.
Mehmet Ozturk, a leading Turkish journalist and analyst, said that issues such as inflation and the cost of living took a back seat. “Stability and maintaining the country’s security became the driving forces during the elections. Erdogan built his entire election campaign on the narratives of national survival and security,” he said. “The Turkish people have shown that they do not like outside interference in their electoral system,” Ozturk added.
To create a sense of pride across the nation, Erdogan announced projects in energy, infrastructure, and military equipment, and drew a vision of a “great Turkey”.
Referring to armed resistance by Kurdish groups in the southern region, Erdogan painted visions of resurgent terrorism, coups, Western intervention, and the country’s division, and accused Kilicdaroglu of having ties to terrorist groups.
The Kurdish political party Halkların Demokratik Partisi (HDP) had endorsed Kilicdaroglu. Aware that Kurdish votes could bolster the opposition, Erdogan succeeded in drawing the Islamist Kurdish Free Cause Party (HUeDA PAR) to his side, thus breaking the Kurdish vote.
The opposition also counted on overwhelming support from the 11 earthquake-stricken provinces in southeastern Turkiye. They were certain that the survivors would punish Erdogan for his inaction and failure to launch rescue operations in time.
Support among the quake-hit
As many as 50,000 people died in these provinces, and millions are still living in temporary shelters. However, except for Hatay province, the remaining provinces strongly supported Erdogan, possibly because he promised to build 600,000 homes for free. Survivors told the media after the surprising outcome that they did not want the next government to reverse those promises.
An earthquake of similar magnitude in 1999 in Kocaeli province brought down the government of the then Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit. Erdogan, who was the opposition leader at the time, fuelled public anger by exploiting the mismanagement, the clumsy and slow response, and corruption allegations against the then army-backed Democratic Left Party. He came to power in 2002 when widespread anger drove people in droves to vote for him and punish the incumbent government for its inefficient handling of the devastation caused by the earthquake.
The Turkish opposition tried a similar strategy to create public sentiment against Erdogan. What saved him, however, was his shrewd move to not oblige his own ruling AK party leaders to postpone the elections for a year. His party wanted to postpone the elections to redeem itself and have time to reduce popular anger.
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But Erdogan surprised everyone by not only refusing to postpone but moving the elections forward by a month. An official from the ruling AK Party told Frontline that Erdogan had told them that postponing the elections would go against the government, as people would vote after a few months or a year based on the results and the work actually done.
Since Erdogan announced elections so quickly—just three months after the devastating quake—he could entice voters with promises. Survivors, however, are confident that Erdogan will keep his promises; they said services in the affected regions have been restored at a rapid pace.
Erdogan had also chosen the election dates carefully. The first round of voting on May 14 coincided with the anniversary of Turkey’s first multiparty election in 1950, in which Adnan Menderes became prime minister. He was later dismissed by the military regime and then executed.
Erdogan with quake-affected people in Diyarbakir, on February 11. | Photo Credit: ILYAS AKENGIN/AFP
Freebies
Freebies in the run-up to the elections also gave Erdogan an advantage. Just six days before the first round of voting, everyone in the country woke up to a jubilant text message saying that the president had paid the fuel bills for May in celebration of gas production from the Black Sea. The same SMS also announced that households consuming less than 25 cubic meters of gas per month would not receive bills for a year.
As in other parts of Europe, fuel bills had become a source of concern in Turkiye too over the past year following the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Also, volunteers from AK Party were seen at train and bus stations handing out food packages to travellers.
This tactic helped Erdogan maintain his bastions in the country’s less prosperous regions, which include the Black Sea (Karadeniz Boelgesi), Central Anatolia (Ic Anadolu Boelgesi) and Eastern Anatolia (Dogu Anadolu Boelgesi). However, in the elite Mediterranean region, including the larger cities of Istanbul, Eskisehir, and Izmir, and the southeastern Kurdish areas, the ruling alliance lost heavily.
Kilicdaroglu tried to present a positive agenda that offered hope and promised freedom and democracy. But after receiving only 44.9 per cent of the vote in the first round, he took a sharp turn to the right. In the second phase of his campaign, he tried to present himself more as a nationalist hardliner, alienating Kurdish voters who had strongly supported him.
“It was typical of him to try to get his feet into two boats. His alliance with the racist Umit Oezdag, the head of the Victory Party after the first round, also demoralised his liberal supporters. In essence, the results showed that working-class and low-income groups in both urban and rural areas are more nationalist-oriented despite the economic turmoil,” Ozturk said.
For the 600-member parliament, the AK party won 268 seats (35.6 per cent of the vote). The AK party-led People’s Alliance (Jamhoor Itifaki), along with its allies, won 323 seats (49.4 per cent of the vote). The six-party alliance led by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which had grown to 17 parties a few days before the elections, won 268 seats (35.5 per cent of the vote). This includes 10 seats won by Turkiye’s largest Islamist party, Saadat or Repah. The only consolation for the CHP is that it increased its seats from 146 seats in 2018 to 169, with a 3 per cent increase in votes, with its individual vote share at 25.4 per cent.
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Interestingly, Erdogan himself received 49.5 per cent of the vote, while his party received only 35 per cent of the vote, a decrease of about 6-7 per cent of the vote compared to 2018.
The opposition paid the price for allying with some racist and xenophobic parties—it lost heavily in areas inhabited by foreigners, especially Syrians and Russians who have taken Turkish citizenship.
The West can learn many lessons from these elections. Not only did Western interference paved the way for Erdogan, the voting patterns of Turks abroad showed that he received the most support in Belgium, France, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands, which are known for frequent Islamophobic incidents. In contrast, he received less support in the US, Australia, Portugal, Estonia, Ireland, and Poland, which report fewer racist and Islamophobic incidents.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Erdogan before a meeting in New Delhi on May 1, 2017, when Erdogan came on a two-day state visit to the country. | Photo Credit: AP
Relations with India
In its bid to take the lead in the Muslim world, Turkiye under Erdogan has also made a splash in India. Erdogan is preparing to travel to India to attend the G20 summit in September. As a result, Ankara has already started toning down the rhetoric on Kashmir and other internal issues of India.
In 2022, the two countries resumed consultations between their respective foreign ministries, and the same year a meeting between Erdogan and Prime Minister Narendra Modi took place on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Uzbekistan in September.
Even as relations between the two countries were strained, bilateral trade between the two reached $10.70 billion in 2021-22, compared with $5 billion in 2020-21. Indian companies have invested about $126 million in Turkiye, according to the Central Bank of Turkiye. Turkish investments in India amount to about $210.47 million.
Since reviving the economy is of utmost importance, the next Turkish government will try to mend fences in the neighbourhood, maintain strategic autonomy in the Russia-Ukraine war, and also reach out to Western allies and G20 countries, which include India, to get investment.
Ties with the West
For the West, there is no other option but to work with Erdogan, despite the rhetoric so far. A bigger challenge for Erdogan will be to revive relations with the US. He had a relatively friendly relationship with former President Donald Trump, but relations with Biden have been frosty.
Turkey’s elections have been called the most-watched event of 2023, given the country’s geostrategic position. According to experts, Erdogan’s third presidential election victory is seen as a vindication of his policies and a continuation of his march toward achieving strategic autonomy while solidifying his country’s role as a member of NATO.
Erdogan’s next term will be marked by giving more space to Russia and China while keeping the West happy, as he will have his hands full trying to reverse the economic downturn.
Even before the outbreak of the pandemic, the country’s economy had shrunk by 10 per cent. In recent months, foreign exchange reserves have also shrunk. There is capital flight, runaway inflation, a rise in unemployment, and even fears of food insecurity. The Turkish lira has fallen to record lows against the US dollar, forcing the Central bank to ask banks to buy dollar bonds to keep borrowing costs stable. At the same time, Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves fell to a 21-year low, amounting to just $2.33 billion.
According to Blige Yilmaz, a professor of economics at the Wharton School of the College of Pennsylvania, the economic boom in Turkiye during Erdogan’s first term was largely because the European Union (EU) had begun negotiations to admit the country into it. This prompted investors from around the world to buy assets in Turkiye. Those negotiations have stalled since 2017.
“The money was flowing. It led to aggressive growth. But the time was not used to boost manufacturing, the knowledge economy, agriculture, and the restructuring of the tax system,” Yilmaz said.
Yilmaz, who was proposed by the opposition as the next finance minister, predicted that the new government would soon have to ask the IMF for an aid package and that the package would have to be used in the aforementioned forgotten areas to revive the economy.
Mehmet Ozturk said that Erdogan has shifted his priorities and given greater importance to West Asia, Asia, South America, and Africa, where Turkey has been able to build new alliances and relationships and rapidly expand its influence.
The West was waiting for a new government in Ankara to move forward with Sweden’s candidacy to join NATO. Erdogan had stood by it for several reasons. After agreeing to Finland’s accession to NATO in March, he could also withdraw his objections to Sweden at the NATO summit in July.
Analysts also believe that Erdogan’s desire to lead the Muslim world has taken a back seat in the past year because of economic problems and that Turkiye’s relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt will stabilise. He had failed to form a sympathetic bloc within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), where even Pakistan, the country’s all-weather friend, backed down.
Through the mediation of Russia and Saudi Arabia, there is now the possibility of a similar thaw in relations with Syria. Defence ministers and intelligence officials from both countries have held several rounds of talks in Moscow, suggesting that an end to the conflict in Syria is in sight. It is only a matter of time before there is a summit meeting between Erdogan and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad.
According to Turkish journalist Fehim Tastekin, Erdogan will implement the Zangezur Corridor plan—a transportation project that would connect Azerbaijani territories via Armenia and give Turkiye a direct link to Azerbaijan. This will strengthen his role in the Caucasus. The corridor will also give the country access to the Caspian Sea and strengthen ties with states in Central Asia. It will be an important alternative route to connect Eurasia with South Asia as well. “This would require normalisation with Armenia, managing tensions with Iran, and maintaining dialogue with Russia,” he said.
Iftikhar Gilani is an Indian journalist based in Ankara.
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