Maharashtra’s elusive byelections: A BJP strategy to avoid risk?

The BJP seems to be strategically avoiding byelections in the State, sparking speculation about its motives in a changing political landscape.

Congress candidate Ravindra Dhangekar with supporters celebrates his victory in the Kasba Peth Assembly byelection held in February. The BJP’s surprise defeat has prompted speculation that the ruling party is avoiding the risk of going for byelections in Maharashtra. | Photo Credit: PTI

In Maharashtra, two Lok Sabha members, one from Congress and one from BJP, passed away in March and May of 2023. However, the Election Commission did not announce the byelections in the State. There is speculation that, after losing Assembly byelections in the State, the BJP is avoiding the risk of going for such electoral battles in Maharashtra.

It is rumoured that after losing the Kasba Peth Assembly seat in Pune, the BJP has decided not to pursue byelections in Maharashtra. The Election Commission’s decision is seen as aligning with the BJP’s preference.

On March 29, BJP Member of Parliament Girish Bapat, representing the Pune Lok Sabha constituency, passed away due to a prolonged illness. The BJP had won the Pune Lok Sabha seat in both 2014 and 2019. Pune, the most urbanised area after Mumbai, has become a stronghold of the BJP over the past decade.

Highlights

• Ghosi’s ‘Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram’
• Byelection results galvanise opposition
• Victory of Chandy Oommen in Kerala?
• What happened in Tripura?

Surprise defeat in Kasba Peth

However, the BJP recently suffered an embarrassing defeat in one Assembly byelection. Kasba Peth Assembly constituency, previously represented by BJP’s Mukta Tilak, became vacant after her passing on December 22, 2022. The byelection for Kasba Peth took place on February 26. The BJP had consistently won this seat from 1990 to 2019, but surprisingly, Ravindra Dhangekar of the Congress won against BJP’s Hemant Rasane in this election.

Several factors contributed to this defeat. The Tilak family had expected the BJP ticket for this byelection, but the party chose another candidate, causing anger among hardcore BJP supporters that influenced the election results. Despite selecting a candidate other than the Tilak family, the party was confident of winning the seat. In the final phase of the election campaign, three Cabinet Ministers and nearly 40 MLAs were tasked with convincing voters. Deputy Chief Minister and BJP’s Maharashtra leader Devendra Fadnavis himself conducted nearly a dozen intra-party and public meetings. However, these efforts did not yield success.

Almost two months later, Bapat, well-respected across party lines, passed away, and his death came as a shock to the party. On May 30, the Congress’ lone MP from Chandrapur, Balu Dhanorkar, also passed away. Consequently, it was expected that the Election Commission would hold byelections for both vacant Lok Sabha seats. The Election Commission has the authority to not announce a byelection if the newly elected member would serve for less than one year.

Using this explanation, it is suggested that the BJP is avoiding the polls. The party’s chief spokesperson, Keshav Upadhye, stated that the decision to announce the election or not rests with the Election Commission. He emphasised that it is an autonomous body, and “unlike during Congress’s rule, the BJP does not interfere with the EC,” he said. He questioned the need to allocate significant resources for elections if the newly elected member would serve for less than one year.

Harbinger for 2024?

The political landscape in Maharashtra is evolving rapidly, despite the BJP successfully breaking the Shiv Sena and NCP, two strong regional parties in the State. Even a recent CNX survey indicated that the BJP-led alliance could win only 20 Lok Sabha seats in the current situation, representing a direct loss of 22 seats for the NDA.

Against this backdrop, any negative outcome in the byelections would strengthen the narrative that the BJP is losing its grip on Maharashtra. Congress legislative party leader Balasaheb Thorat asserted that the BJP lacks the courage to hold elections, as people are eagerly waiting for the opportunity to voice their discontent with the BJP’s abuse of power. “The BJP has realised it through many surveys. The Maha Vikas Aghadi would win more than 35 seats of Lok Sabha (out of the total 48) in Maharashtra in the coming general election,” said Thorat.