Political chaos in Maharashtra part of BJP strategy ahead of 2024 elections

By splitting the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the BJP has further intensified the multi-cornered fight in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde with Deputy Chief Ministers Ajit Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis during a tea party ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly’s monsoon session, in Mumbai on July 16.  | Photo Credit: SHASHANK PARADE/PTI

It was clear even on June 30, 2022, when the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government was falling, that its Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar would, sooner rather than later, move to the BJP. But no one imagined he would succeed in taking more than two-thirds of the NCP MLAs with him.

Ajit’s uncle and veteran politician Sharad Pawar is known for his solid grip over the party and for being in constant touch with the rank and file. Ajit’s success in getting a majority of MLAs on board was a huge win for the BJP, the brains behind this operation. With Ajit’s entry, the BJP has successfully killed many birds with one stone.

Weakening Sharad Pawar was vital for the BJP to send a political message at the State level and the national level. Pawar is the architect of the MVA and the leader who brought the Shiv Sena and the Congress, strong ideological rivals, together in a joint government. Sharad Pawar has said many times in public that a similar grand alliance against the BJP is possible at the national level too.

On July 18, Sharad Pawar reached Bengaluru for a meeting of opposition leaders that ultimately culminated in the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) to take on the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. There were rumours that he might miss the meeting, but he made it a point to attend it.

NCP’s strength

The NCP has 53 MLAs and more than 30 of them are now in the Ajit Pawar faction. Although the faction claims the support of more than 40 MLAs, several legislators are undecided about joining either of the two factions. On July 16, Ajit Pawar, Praful Patel, and all the Ministers of his faction met Sharad Pawar to seek his support for their government. But Sharad Pawar did not utter a word during the meeting. The next day, the MLAs again sought his support. But Sharad Pawar refused to join them, saying: “We fought against the BJP. We were with the Congress in 2019. So, it is not possible for me to join hands with the BJP against which I have fought my entire life.”

Maharashtra sends 48 members to the Lok Sabha, the second highest number after Uttar Pradesh (80). Having a strong anti-BJP alliance in such a State would have made the BJP weaker. In 2019, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 42 seats, with the BJP’s tally at 24.

The BJP’s all-out efforts to break parties and alliances in Maharashtra are aimed at keeping this 2019 tally intact. In fact, BJP State president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said as much in a party meeting: “Our aim is to win 45 seats in the coming Lok Sabha election. Our efforts are in the right direction and we will achieve it.”

The confidence of the BJP is purely a result of Ajit Pawar’s entry. Even though the BJP succeeded in breaking the Shiv Sena, the popular sentiment is still against the party. The leading Marathi daily Sakal did a survey in May 2023 with 50,000-plus respondents, in which 48 per cent of the respondents voted for the MVA and 38 per cent for the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde). While 11.5 per cent of the respondents voted for the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) faction, only 5.5 per cent went with the Shiv Sena (Shinde) faction.

In the BJP’s calculation, if the Ajit faction pulls in at least five percentage points of the NCP’s 15.5 per cent vote share, that will give the BJP-led alliance a vote share of 43 per cent, which can significantly dent the MVA’s prospects.

Vasant Bhosale, resident editor of Lokmat, Kolhapur, said: “Ajit Pawar won’t be able to get more votes than his uncle’s faction, but it seems that using all the resources at hand, the Ajit group can make a significant dent in the NCP’s vote bank, especially in western Maharashtra, northern Maharashtra, and Marathwada. This will ultimately help the BJP-led alliance.”

NCP chief Sharad Pawar (right) with party leader Jayant Patil during a meeting in Mumbai on July 5. | Photo Credit: SHASHANK PARADE/PTI

Ajit Pawar’s plan

The ministerial allocations announced on July 14 indicate Ajit’s plan. He has managed to bag finance and planning for himself and cooperatives, agriculture, foodand civil supplies, food and drug administration, women and child development, ports, medical education, sports and youth welfare, and relief and rehabilitation for his loyalists.

Cooperatives are the backbone of rural Maharashtra’s economy and of Sharad Pawar’s politics as well. With this department, Ajit will try to strengthen his grip on the financial nerve centre of rural Maharashtra. This could help him in the upcoming elections as well as in the long term.

It is also in this context that the entry of the the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS), the ruling party in Telangana, into Maharashtra is being watched closely. BRS chief and Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao has addressed six public meetings in Marathwada, Vidarbha, and western Maharashtra so far. He has gained the support of 10 former MLAs, two former MPs, and nearly 30 prominent leaders of the farmer and labour movements. His party is spending lavishly on posters, advertisements, and political functions and has created a buzz in political circles. If the BRS bags even 2 to 4 per cent of the votes in the Lok Sabha election in the regions it is eyeing, that could prove to be a game-changer.

Rao’s focus is on farmers, landless farm labourers, and other labourers. Political observers said these sections are likely to vote against the BJP because of issues such as low prices for food crops, inflation, and unemployment. If these segments vote for the BRS, that would mean a split in the anti-BJP vote, which will ultimately affect the MVA.

Anticipating this, a recent editorial in Saamna, the party mouthpiece of Shiv Sena (Uddhav), said that Maharashtra’s voters understand the intention of the BRS. It said: “Division of votes will not be possible this time because people know who is with whom, and they want to defeat the BJP. So, all those trying to help BJP indirectly will not get any significant support from voters.”

Dividing the vote

The division of votes played a key role in the 2009 and 2019 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. In 2009, it was Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena that helped the Congress-NCP alliance. Its candidates pulled more votes than the winning margin in 12 Lok Sabha and 34 Assembly seats. This damaged the prospects of the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance. In 2019, Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) formed an alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). The alliance could win only one seat but damaged the Congress-NCP alliance in 17 Lok Sabha and 47 Assembly seats, turning the tide in the BJP’s favour. A possible division of votes is why the BRS factor is suddenly very important in the State’s political arithmetic.

The VBA is also a key player in the current scenario. Its leader Prakash Ambedkar has always been a strong opponent of the Congress and the NCP, but has joined hands with Uddhav Thackeray in recent times. If the partnership continues, it could help the MVA significantly. The VBA has proved that it has clout among a sizeable chunk of the Dalit vote base in every Assembly constituency. Taking the VBA along would be a good move for the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar). And if Ambedkar plays his cards well, he could be an equal partner during seat-sharing as well as in power if the coalition wins.

According to political strategists, the BJP has two major challenges in the coming elections: first, the possible anti-incumbency of being at the Centre for 10 years, and second, the negative perception even among the BJP’s core voters as the party that broke the NCP and the Shiv Sena. Maharashtra’s social media was flooded with strong reactions from BJP supporters against the decision to bring the Ajit Pawar faction into its fold.

Sharad Ponkshe, a well-known right-wing Marathi actor who played the role of Nathuram Godse in a controversial Marathi play called Mi Nathuram Godse Boltoy, published his strong objections on social media. He said: “Principles, ideological meetings and policy are dead today.” This is illustrative of the general reaction of strong BJP supporters who have always been against any alliance with leaders like Pawar and parties like the NCP.

The Telangana Chief Minister and BRS chief K. Chandrashekar Rao inaugurating a party office in Nagpur on June 15.  | Photo Credit: PTI

Challenges before BJP

Sensing the disappointment among supporters, senior BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis tried to pacify them at a party meeting, where he said: “Some things are being done in the larger interest. Today, they might seem wrong but in the long term they will prove right. What we did in 2019 [surprise swearing-in with Ajit Pawar] can be seen clearly now in 2023. So, we will get to know the reason behind today’s actions in 2026.” But this is easier said than done.

Political observer Jaydeo Dole said: “With the induction of Ajit Pawar in the government, the BJP has taken a huge risk on two fronts: first, perception, where the party loses badly, and second, disturbing its core voters. Addressing both challenges will be a major task.” By breaking two strong political parties in Maharashtra, the BJP has also succeeded in sending a message to all regional satraps in the country. Many of them, such as Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, M.K. Stalin, Tejashwi Yadav, Hemant Soren, Akhilesh Yadav, Arvind Kejriwal, Omar Abdullah, and Mehbooba Mufti, came together to form the national opposition alliance at Bengaluru.

The BJP broke the NCP just a week after the first meeting of opposition parties in Patna. The message is clear: the BJP can go to any extent to demolish any signs of opposition unity. Equally, if the BJP is trying to create a perception that the opposition alliance is unstable, it has successfully made its point.

Cutting regional parties down to size is also a long-term plan for the BJP. With the Congress in no position to take on the BJP on its own, regional parties are dominating the opposition space. In Maharashtra, the Congress will now be the biggest opposition party in the Assembly. So, in a way, the BJP will try to paint a picture that the election is a direct battle with the Congress than with Uddhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar, which helps the party in the perception game.

Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar can try to remain relevant in Maharashtra politics by pushing the “regional pride” narrative. NCP State chief Jayant Patil even used the “Maharashtra under attack” theme recently, when he said: “Some people left Pawar saheb. Now they are laying claim to the party founded by Pawar saheb. The power behind them is pushing them to do this. This power wants Maharashtra to be weak. By breaking the Shiv Sena and the NCP, they are planning to break Maharashtra.”

Highlights

• Weakening Sharad Pawar was vital for the BJP to send a political message at the State level and the national level.
• The NCP has 53 MLAs and more than 30 of them are now in the Ajit Pawar faction.
• The BJP’s all-out efforts to break parties and alliances in Maharashtra are aimed at keeping its 2019 tally intact.
• The entry of the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) into Maharashtra is being watched closely.

Shiv Sena and NCP

Originally, the NCP and Shiv Sena had different vote bases. The NCP was essentially a rural party that thrived on the institutional network of cooperative societies, whether dairy, sugar, or cotton mills. It also had the vote of the Maratha and Muslim communities in some pockets and OBCs in other pockets. The Shiv Sena, on the other hand, has always been Mumbai-centric. Its voter base has been the urban and highly emotional Marathi who is wooed by State or religious calls. By pushing both parties to play the emotional card of regional pride, the BJP might be able to make inroads into the NCP’s Maratha constituents as well as the hard-core right-wing voters of the Shiv Sena (U).

Padmabhushan Deshpande, a senior journalist, said: “The BJP is doing all this just to ensure they win the general election. The MVA might have a chance but not in the Lok Sabha election. When it comes to national elections, people do not vote on regional issues or sentiments.”

Maharashtra is looking at three phases of elections in the next 18 months. The first will be the local body elections, which are most likely to be held in end-2023, when 25 municipalities including the Brihanmumbai Municipal Council (BMC), 26 zilla parishads, 240 municipal councils, and 289 panchayat samitis will be up for grabs. The BJP has the best chance in these elections.

Maharashtra has seen three Chief Ministers and three Deputy Chief Ministers in the last three and a half years. This is unprecedented. This volatile state of instability has been designed and ruthlessly executed by the BJP. After the setback in 2019, it seems the party is finally back “on track” with its politicking in one of the country’s most important States.