BJP retains upper hand in Assam but Congress finds its feet in the North-East once again

By winning both seats in Manipur and one each in Meghalaya and Nagaland, the Congress recorded an impressive resurgence in the region.

Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi after filing his nomination from the Jorhat constituency on March 26. Gogoi’s thumping victory, with a margin of more than 1.44 lakh votes, came as a shot in the arm for his party in the State. | Photo Credit: RITU RAJ KONWAR

The Congress has staged a comeback in the electoral politics of the north-eastern region, increasing its tally to 7 of the total of 25 seats in the region from 4 in 2019. Local Congress leaders attributed the improvement in the party’s performance to Rahul Gandhi starting his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra from Manipur and passing through most States in the region.

The BJP still dominated the election by winning 13 seats, the maximum from the region, but its tally was lower than the 15 it won in 2019. The overall tally of the BJP and its regional allies of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) and the National Democratic Alliance fell to 16 from 19 in 2019.

BJP allies won only in Assam and Sikkim but failed to win in six other States. The BJP’s wins were limited to the three States where it rules: Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Tripura. But it lost both seats in Manipur, which has been ravaged by violent ethnic conflict for more than a year now.

The Congress won four seats in 2019: three in Assam and one in Meghalaya. This time, there will be Congress representatives from two more States: Manipur and Nagaland. Its performance in Manipur and Nagaland has given a fresh impetus for its organisational revival in the region, which had been ravaged by the defection of its rank and file after successive electoral defeats.

The Assam story

In Assam, the ruling BJP’s tally remained unchanged at nine, while its coalition partners the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) won one seat each. In 2019, of the 14 seats in Assam, the BJP won 9, the Congress 3, and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Gana Suraksha Party 1 each. Both the BJP and the Congress registered a rise in vote share. The vote share of the key players was: BJP 37.43 per cent, Congress 37.48 per cent, AGP 6.46 per cent, UPPL 2.43 per cent, AIUDF 3.13 per cent, and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) 3.86 per cent.

The Congress’ tally also remained unchanged at three seats, but its victories signalled a regaining of its lost support base among Muslim voters of erstwhile East Bengal origin that went to the AIUDF, and its core Assamese voters in the strongholds of the BJP and the AGP.

Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi’s victory from Jorhat caused a dent in BJP strongholds in the three key eastern Assam districts of Jorhat, Sivasagar, and Majuli. His victory has left the BJP and the AGP worried over a domino effect in the 2026 Assembly election. The image of Gogoi as a “strong parliamentarian with impressive oratory skills” and a “bold voice” in Parliament worked in his favour and boosted his popularity, particularly among young voters. All constituents of the INDIA bloc also campaigned extensively for him.

Congress leader Rakibul Hussain (right) with Assam Pradesh Congress Committee president Bhupen Kumar Borah during a felicitation programme in Guwahati on June 7. Hussain won the Dhubri seat with the largest margin in this election. | Photo Credit: Abdul Sajid/ANI

Gogoi won by 1,44,393 votes against sitting BJP MP Topon Kumar Gogoi, a former general secretary of the All Assam Students’ Union. The BJP put in the maximum effort to defeat him, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and his Cabinet colleagues running an aggressive campaign.

Of the 10 Assembly segments of the parliamentary constituency, the Congress has legislators in only two and its ally Raijor Dal in one. Gogoi took the lead in nine segments, and only in the Majuli segment, including the river island Majuli, did the BJP candidate manage to take the lead. The Majuli segment, a BJP stronghold, was added to the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat during the delimitation exercise carried out last year.

On the X social platform, Gaurav Gogoi said: “There are many things to unpack from this election. But clearly the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra of @RahulGandhi has had an impact on the Northeast. Unprecedented victory in Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Assam.”

Readying for 2026

A day after the results were announced, Gogoi visited the Majuli island to sound the Congress’ bugle for the 2026 Assembly election. At a public rally, he dubbed the 2024 Lok Sabha election as just the semi-final and exuded confidence that the Congress would win the final in 2026 along with other constituents of the INDIA bloc.

However, Himanta Biswa Sarma was unfazed by the Congress victory in Jorhat. Speaking to reporters, he said that the BJP and its allies took the lead in 94 Assembly segments and were strongly placed.

The Congress’ victory in the constituency also intensified infighting among old BJP and new BJP leaders and workers, with several BJP leaders voicing concern over the Congress’ inroads into saffron strongholds.

Mrinal Saikia, a sitting BJP legislator, also engaged in a verbal dual with Sarma after Saikia congratulated Garuv Gogoi for his victory and attributed the BJP’s loss to “arrogance”. Despite the BJP’s stellar performance under Sarma’s leadership, the rebellion by old BJP workers for allegedly sidelining them is likely to intensify.

Congress supporters on the first day of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in Manipur’s Thoubal district on January 14. The yatra played a key role in boosting the Congress’ image across the north-eastern region and helped it win both seats in Manipur. | Photo Credit: REUTERS

Former Assam Chief Minister and Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal of the BJP won the Dibrugarh seat defeating Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) president Lurinjyoti Gogoi by 2,79,321 votes. The Congress had given the seat to the AJP, a constituent of the INDIA bloc, and he was the bloc’s consensus candidate. Gogoi polled 4,14,441 votes, which he hopes will help the new regional party perform better in the 2026 Assembly election.

In Gaurav Gogoi’s victory, the State saw the emergence of a popular face as the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate for the 2026 election and that has left the incumbent Chief Minister and the State BJP worried. Sarma saw the rise of Gaurav Gogoi within the Congress as a stumbling block to his dream of becoming Chief Minister. He defected to the BJP, and his wish was fulfilled when the saffron party retained power in 2021.

Redrawing of constituency boundaries also led to the removal of the Kaliabor Lok Sabha seat from where Gaurav Gogoi won two successive elections in 2014 and 2019. Assembly seats that were Congress strongholds were transferred to the Nagaon seat, and Assembly segments that were BJP strongholds were added to the newly constituted Kaziranga constituency. This prompted Gaurav Gogoi to fight from Jorhat. Sitting BJP Rajya Sabha MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa won from Kaziranga defeating Congress candidate Roselina Tirkey by 2,48,947 votes.

In Dhubri, the landslide victory of senior Congress leader and former Minister Rakibul Hussain against AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal signalled the grand old party regaining its lost support base among Muslim voters of erstwhile East Bengal origin. Hussain made history by polling 14,77,885 votes, defeating Ajmal by a massive margin of 10,12,476 votes, the highest in the country. Ajmal polled 4,59,409 votes while the AGP candidate Jabed Islam finished third with 4,38,594 votes. The AIUDF contested in three seats but drew a blank.

Reclaiming lost voter base

The rise of the AIUDF had led to an erosion in the traditional Congress support base. After delimitation, the number of Assembly constituencies where Muslim voters of erstwhile East Bengal origin play a decisive role fell from 29 to 21. The AIUDF won 16 Assembly seats in 2021.

In Kokrajhar, reserved for Scheduled Tribes, the victory of the BJP ally UPPL marked the election of a Bodo candidate from the seat after a gap of 10 years. In 2014, Naba Kumar Sarania, a former “commander” of the erstwhile United Liberation Front of Asom, became the first non-Bodo candidate to win the seat comprising areas under the Bodoland Territorial Region and adjacent areas outside the jurisdiction of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC).

Sarania, who retained the seat in 2019, could not contest this time after the Gauhati High Court declared that he was ineligible to contest from a reserved seat. The UPPL candidate Joyanta Basumatary defeated the BPF’s candidate Kampa Borgoyari by 51,583 votes. Elections to the BTC are scheduled to take place next year, and the UPPL hopes to capitalise on the Lok Sabha victory to win power in the territorial autonomous council where the BPF has dominated for three consecutive terms.

Congress shines in Nagaland

A polling booth in Shamator, Nagaland, wears a deserted look on April 19 after the Eastern Nagaland Peoples’ Organisation called for a boycott in protest against the delay of creation of a Frontier Nagaland Territory. The boycott was successful in in 20 Assembly segments in six districts. | Photo Credit: PTI

In Nagaland, the Congress performance stole the show, wresting the lone Lok Sabha seat from the ruling Nationalist Democratic People’s Party (NDPP), which heads the opposition-less government in the State. S. Supongmeren Jamir defeated Dr Chumben Murry by 50,984 votes. The Congress has drawn a blank in two successive Assembly elections, in 2018 and 2023. Nagaland witnessed the installation of an opposition-less government last year after all parties extended support to the NDPP-BJP coalition. Not a single vote was cast in 20 Assembly segments in six districts of the State after the Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation called for a boycott in protest against the Central government’s failure to settle the creation of a separate Frontier Nagaland Territory comprising the six districts.

Manipur’s reaction

The Manipur results added sparkle to the Congress’ performance in the region, with the party wresting both the seats from the BJP-led ruling coalition. Prof. Angomcha Bimol Akoijam from JNU won as the Congress candidate from the Meitei-majority Inner Manipur constituency. He defeated his nearest BJP rival, Education Minister Thounaojam Basanta Kumar Singh, by 1,09,801 votes. And in Outer Manipur, where the Naga and Kuki-Zo are in a majority, the Congress candidate Alfred Kanngam S. Arthur defeated Kachui Timothy Zimik of the Naga People’s Front, a constituent of the BJP-led coalition government, by 85,418 votes. The BJP won both seats in 2019.

The results were clearly a response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi not having visited conflict-hit Manipur even once and his silence over the situation in the State even after persistent violence claimed 220 lives and over 50,000 displaced people continue to take shelter in relief camps a year after the violence began.

In Meghalaya, the Congress lost Shillong to the Voice of the People Party (VOTPP) but wrested the Tura seat from the ruling National People’s Party. Congress candidate Saleng A. Sangma defeated sitting MP Agatha K. Sangma, who is the sister of Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, by 1,55,241 votes. Tura has been a bastion of the Sangma family, which has held it since 1977, except for the 1989-91 period.

In Mizoram, the ruling Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) wrested the lone Lok Sabha seat from the opposition Mizo National Front (MNF), continuing its winning spree in the State. The ZPM won the Assembly election with a landslide victory against the MNF. The ZPM candidate Richard Vanlalhmangaiha’s victory against the nearest MNF rival and Rajya Sabha member K. Vanlalvena by 68,288 votes helped the ruling party consolidate its electoral support.

In Arunachal Pradesh, the BJP swept the simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. It won both the Lok Sabha seats: Union Minister Kiren Rijiju from Arunachal West and Tapir Gao from Arunachal East. Rijiju won by 1,00,738 votes against Congress rival and former Chief Minister Nabam Tuki; while Gao won by 30,421 votes against the Congress candidate, Bosiram Siram.

Incumbent Chief Minister Pema Khandu is expected to wear the crown of Chief Minister for the third time in a row after leading the party to spectacular victory, winning 46 seats in the 60-member Assembly, increasing the party tally by five seats. The BJP’s return was expected, with the party already winning 10 seats unopposed including that of Khandu. The Congress managed to win only one seat.