The tryst between the voters of Karnataka and the BJP that commenced two decades ago with the Lok Sabha election of 2004 continued in the 2024 Lok Sabha election as well. The terms of this covenant are seemingly straightforward: since 2004, Karnataka has not given an emphatic mandate to the BJP in elections to the Legislative Assembly but has thrown its weight behind the party in subsequent Lok Sabha elections. Of the 28 seats in Karnataka, the BJP won 18, 19, 17, and 25 seats in the Lok Sabha elections of 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 respectively.
Continuing this pattern, the BJP triumphed in 17 Lok Sabha seats this time, despite winning only 66 seats (out of 228) in last year’s Assembly election. With this result, the BJP has again trumped the Congress, its traditional rival, which it restricted to only 9 seats. With its ally, the Janata Dal (Secular), winning 2 of the 3 seats it contested, the BJP-JD(S) alliance managed to win an impressive 19 seats with a combined vote share of 51.66 per cent.
Even though the Congress, which secured a vote share of 45.43 per cent, substantially improved its performance compared with the 2019 Lok Sabha election (31.88 per cent and one seat), its potential surge was curtailed by the BJP-JD(S) alliance. The Congress ran an aggressive campaign with its focus on the effectuation of its five guarantees, but with the party hoping for at least 14-15 seats, the results have come as a disappointment. This shortfall has also dented the overall tally of the INDIA bloc; a few more seats for the Congress from Karnataka could have marginally reduced the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) tally and ensured that the Congress crossed 100 seats nationally.
There were no significant gains for the party in the wake of the allegations of rape against the JD(S) candidate, Prajwal Revanna. The results clearly show that for the voters of Karnataka, the BJP is the preferred national party even if it chooses the Congress at the State level.
Former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda with his grandson, the JD(S) candidate Prajwal Revanna, during an election campaign rally in Mysuru on April 14, 2024. | Photo Credit: SHAILENDRA BHOJAK/ PTI
This contest between the BJP and the Congress would have been strong even if the BJP had not joined hands with the JD(S). The results reveal that the alliance worked well in south Karnataka, with the core votes of each party transferring smoothly to the alliance partner. Except for the constituencies of Hassan (where Revanna lost) and Chamarajanagar, both of which the Congress won, the alliance was successful in the Vokkaliga-dominated constituencies of south Karnataka. Former Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) won the Mandya seat, defeating his Congress rival by more than two lakh votes.
In Bengaluru Rural, which elected D.K. Suresh in 2019, the victor was Dr C.N. Manjunath, son-in-law of JD(S) supremo H.D. Deve Gowda, who contested on the BJP ticket. Suresh is the brother of Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar, and the sting of this loss will be felt deeply by the latter, who was making a pitch for the leadership of the Vokkaliga community, which has traditionally supported the JD(S). The loss for the Congress in south Karnataka will also mean a personal failure for Shivakumar, subduing, at least temporarily, his ambition to become Chief Minister.
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The BJP was successful on its own strength in the north-west region of Kittur Karnataka where it won five out of six seats. Lingayats constitute a major chunk of the population here, and this dominant caste has been a loyal support base of the BJP. Anchored by the support of this community, the BJP successfully stitched a winning social coalition including Brahmins and Backward Classes. The BJP’s last-minute campaign in the region was also catalysed by the murder of a Hindu girl by a Muslim youth in Hubballi, which was portrayed as a case of “love jehad”.
Congress dominance in Kalyana Karnataka
For the Congress, the only consolation victory was in Chikkodi where 27-year-old Priyanka Jarkiholi, daughter of Public Works Minister Satish Jarkiholi, emerged victorious. Former Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar, who joined the Congress before last year’s Assembly election, only to return to his long-term home in the BJP early this year, won in Belagavi. Basavaraj Bommai, who was Chief Minister when the BJP suffered its loss last year, won from Haveri.
For the Congress, the only consolation victory was in Chikkodi where 27-year-old Priyanka Jarkiholi, daughter of Public Works Minister Satish Jarkiholi, emerged victorious. | Photo Credit: BADIGER PK
The BJP maintained its winning track record in coastal Karnataka and in Bengaluru. Historical factors have ensured the pervasive influence of the Hindutva ideology all along coastal Karnataka, where BJP candidates won the three seats with massive margins. Former Assembly Speaker Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri won Uttara Kannada for the BJP against his Congress rival by 3,37,428 votes, the highest victory margin in the State. All the three seats of Bengaluru were also won by the BJP. The Congress was confident of winning at least one seat in the capital and had pinned its hopes on Bengaluru Central where it had nominated its only Muslim candidate, Mansoor Ali Khan, but the BJP’s P.C. Mohan won here for the fourth time by around 32,000 votes.
Highlights
- The BJP triumphed in 17 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka this time. With its ally, the Janata Dal (Secular), winning 2 of the 3 seats it contested, the BJP-JD(S) alliance managed to win an impressive 19 seats
- The Congress’ victories came from constituencies that are more backward in the State. The Congress State government’s implementation of the “five guarantees” paid dividends in places where the impact of the welfare schemes was felt by the people
- The favourable result for the BJP will solidify the relevance of senior leader Yediyurappa
The largest chunk of the Congress’ victories came from north-east Karnataka (Kalyana Karnataka), where it won all the five seats. This is also the base of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, who has represented Kalaburagi in the past. This seat has now been won by his son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani. This region scores the poorest on crucial human development indices and has a diverse demography consisting of a relatively higher proportion of Dalits, Muslims, and tribal people compared with the rest of Karnataka. This is also the region where a syncretic culture thrives in the daily lives of the people. Apart from Kalaburagi, where Kharge’s writ prevailed, the four remaining constituencies in the region had candidates hand-picked by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, and their victories are being seen as his personal achievement.
BJP won in affluent constituencies
The Congress’ victories came from constituencies that are more backward in the State. Even in Kittur Karnataka, its sole victory was in Chikkodi, which is relatively more backward than the other constituencies in the region. In south Karnataka, the Congress won in Chamarajanagar, which is one of the most deprived districts in the region. This shows that the implementation of the five guarantees—Shakti (free transport for women), Anna Bhagya (5 kg of foodgrain), Gruha Jyothi (free power up to 200 units a month), Gruha Lakshmi (Rs.2,000 to women head of families), and Yuva Nidhi (financial support to unemployed youth)—paid dividends where its impact was felt by the people. The BJP performed better in the relatively affluent constituencies where the five guarantees have not played a transformatory role in the lives of the masses.
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The five guarantees have led to a tremendous burden on the exchequer, with a consequent reduction in capital outlay. Will the Lok Sabha results lead to any tinkering in the policies around the five guarantees? Siddaramaiah has stated that the guarantees will continue in their current form, but there is a possibility that the parameters of the five schemes will be tweaked if there is no commensurate electoral benefit.
Former Chief Ministers H.D. Kumaraswamy and B.S. Yediyurappa at a protest in Bengaluru on September 27, 2023. | Photo Credit: MURALI KUMAR K
The results also show the indispensability of B.S. Yediyurappa, with his unchallenged leadership of the Lingayat community, for the BJP. His younger son, B.Y. Vijayendra, led the battle as the State party president, while his elder son, B.Y. Raghavendra, won the Shivamogga seat for the fourth time despite the rebellion of senior leader K.S. Eshwarappa. The favourable result for the BJP will solidify the relevance of Yediyurappa, who is arguably the only pan-Indian BJP politician to withstand the rise of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah in the party apparatus, an ascendance that has been accompanied by the sidelining of strong regional leaders of the BJP.
Yediyurappa’s relevance
Yediyurappa has stated that the BJP will continue its alliance with the JD(S) in the future. A few political analysts have understood Karnataka’s political history as a battle for supremacy between Lingayats and Vokkaligas but when the two castes come together, as has happened in the past on a few occasions, the coalition has been politically unassailable. With Lingayats largely voting for the BJP and a substantial section from among Vokkaligas continuing to prefer the JD(S), Yediyurappa and Kumaraswamy seem to have hit upon a winning formula. But it is up to these stalwarts to sustain this tenuous relationship.
In the past, the BJP has gradually snuffed out its regional allies by sundering parties such as the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Lok Janshakti Party in Bihar. Restricted to one part of Karnataka and to one caste and one family, the JD(S) will have to make a considerable effort to retain its distinct identity within the NDA.
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