Can Maldivian President Ibu Solih defy the odds and secure a second term?

The election comes at a time when Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party, once a formidable force, has been fractured by a major split.

In the MDP primary to pick a presidential candidate, Mohamed Nasheed (left) lost to Ibu Solih, who polled 60 per cent of the votes. Nasheed then left the party. | Photo Credit: Mohamed Sharuhaan/AP

The odds, and history, are stacked against Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (Ibu Solih) as he seeks a second term in the September 9 election: his party, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), is now a diminished entity after a major split, and, since the first multi-party election in 2008, no President has managed a second term.

The 2018 presidential election saw Ibu Solih beat President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom by garnering 58.4 per cent of the votes. In the first presidential election in 2008, a majority of the two lakh plus voters threw out Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (about 46 per cent of the votes) and elected Mohamed Nasheed (just over 54 per cent of the votes). Nasheed did not last the full term, and his Vice President, Mohamed Waheed, was sworn in as President for the reminder of the term. In the 2013 presidential election, which went into two rounds, Yameen secured just over 51 per cent of the votes to defeat Nasheed.

Ibu Solih contested the 2018 election on the MDP ticket because Nasheed, the party’s ideological fountainhead, could not contest the election following a conviction by a court. Though the ruling was subsequently overturned after the MDP victory, the equations within the MDP were rewritten: Ibu Solih was installed as President and Nasheed settled for the position of Speaker of the People’s Majlis (parliament).

Divergence in paths

Ibu Solih soon grew out of Nasheed’s shadow and charted a path for the nation that was at variance with Nasheed’s vision. Nasheed was an avid believer in the “India First” policy of the country to the extent that he sometimes made it look like an “India Only” policy with his outbursts against Chinese investments in Maldives. Ibu Solih shunned the strident anti-Chinese rhetoric but held on to the “India First” policy. India has been generous with aid, investments, and high-level visits since Ibu Solih became President, starting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit for Ibu Solih’s swearing-in ceremony, on November 17, 2018.

The real fight between the two leaders, who are childhood friends, arose primarily because Ibu Solih intended to seek a second term. This led to charges and countercharges at a personal level, as well as raids and incarceration of some relatives of Nasheed. MDP Ministers and seniors were forced to take sides, and a majority of the Ministers stayed with Ibu Solih. In the MDP primary to pick a presidential candidate, held on January 28, Ibu Solih trumped Nasheed by polling 60 per cent of the votes.

Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and Prime Minister Narendra Modi press a button to mark the start of construction of the Greater Male Connectivity Project during a meeting in New Delhi. | Photo Credit: R. V. Moorthy

Nasheed left the party after accusing the Ibu Solih camp of fraud in the primary and lent support to a newly formed political party, The Democrats. Nasheed is not the presidential candidate in the new formation; he instead picked Ilyas Labeeb, a popular MP.

In fact, a record number of contestants are in the race this time: apart from Ibu Solih and Labeeb, the others in the race include Mohamed Muizzu, the Mayor of Malé [representing the People’s National Congress (PNC), backed by the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM)]; Qasim Ibrahim, leader of the Jumhooree Party (JP); Mohamed Nazim, former Defence Minister and leader of the fledgling Maldives National Party (MNP); and three independent candidates—Faris Maumoon, son of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and nephew of Yameen Abdul Gayoom; Umar Naseer, former Home Minister; and Hassan Zameel, a previous Minister of Defence.

Highlights

• The odds, and history, are stacked against Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih as he seeks a second term in the September 9 election.
• On paper, it appears that Mohamed Muizzu, the Mayor of Malé, is the other main contender.
• A large number of contestants gives the impression of a fragmented race, but each of the remaining candidates has severe limitations.
• This time around, there will be 2.8 lakh voters—about 21,000 more than the 2018 election.

Contenders for the top post

One main contender missing from the field is Yameen Abdul Gayoom, who as President from 2013 to 2018 steered the country into China’s arms. On December 25, 2022, Yameen was sentenced to 11 years in prison on charges of bribery and money laundering. Though his party, the PPM, protested across Maldives, it yielded no results. Yameen refused to initially endorse anyone else from the party for the position even as a backup but finally ended up agreeing grudgingly to back Malé Mayor Muizzu. Thus, while the MDP is widely viewed as a pro-India party, the PPM and, by extension, the coalition PNC are seen as pro-China.

On paper, it appears that Ibu Solih and Muizzu are the main contenders because Solih has the government machinery with him and Muizzu won as Mayor despite a large number of MDP voters in the capital island. Ibu Solih is more a bureaucrat than a charismatic vote-catching machine, and he depends heavily on social media and the government machinery to push the development theme. The efficiency and effectiveness of his presidency is the main theme, and he has unveiled a vision for the next five years. Muizzu, while being the person who can turn the tide because of his popularity in the capital island, does not have the wholehearted support of the PPM.

A flight carrying doses of the Covishield vaccine after its arrival in Male in 2021. India has been generous with aid, investments, and high-level visits since Ibu Solih became President. | Photo Credit: AFP

The large number of contestants does give the impression of a fragmented race, but each of the remaining candidates has severe limitations. For example, both Qasim Ibrahim and Faris Maumoon were part of the Solih government earlier on but later quit their posts. Though this is not a disqualification in itself in Maldives, Qasim’s party is not large enough to propel him into the second round. Faris and other independents do not have much of a chance in a place where the voters have preferred established political parties.

Second round possible

In short, the others in the race, while being important politicians in their own right, are not capable of upsetting the current polarisation, though they may be able to force a second round of polling. A candidate has to secure 50 per cent plus one vote to be declared winner. If no clear winner emerges, a second round will be held on September 30 between the candidates who were placed first and second in the September 9 election.

This time around, there will be 2.8 lakh voters—about 21,000 more than the 2018 election. The campaign in the archipelago nation spanning 187 inhabited islands gathered steam much ahead of the August 10 start date and will end on September 8, a day before the election. Ballot boxes will also be placed in 12 overseas locations, including in Sri Lanka and in India, so that citizens can exercise their franchise. The counting of votes will begin soon after the close of polls on September 9.

There was a time when elections in South Asia (barring Pakistan) were seen as an India versus China affair. But after the 2015 Sri Lankan presidential election, where the Chinese-backed Mahinda Rajapaksa could not secure a victory, the Chinese model of influencing governments underwent a sea change. The Chinese began engaging, even wooing, whoever was elected to office. This has helped them immensely in Sri Lanka, where not a single Chinese project has been shelved, though there have been indications that they will be.