Spectacular, stunning, momentous. Any of these adjectives would describe the staggering comeback pulled off by Donald Trump, a convicted felon, who never stopped believing in himself as he trounced his Democratic Party rival, Kamala Harris, in the race to become the 47th President of the United States.
Trump has not only whizzed past the 270 Electoral College votes required to become President, he is also said to have won the popular vote—the first for a Republican candidate in two decades—the Associated Press news agency has reported.
Love him or hate him, Trump has displayed incredible resilience in staying with his divisive agenda, kindling and playing on the fears of ordinary Americans. Simple questions like “are you better off today than you were four years ago?” and slogans like “Make America Great Again” seem to have paid him rich dividends.
His victory will have far-reaching implications—both for Americans and the rest of the world. Trump showed some signs of being reconciliatory soon after his victory, but whether these sentiments translate into policy remains to be seen.
“It’s time to put the divisions of the past four years behind us,” Trump said. “It’s time to unite… We have to put our country first for at least a period of time,” he stated.
Bernie Sanders, the grand old man of American politics, said on X: “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right.”
Sanders pointed out that despite an explosion in technology, many young Americans were worse off than their parents. America, he said, was the only wealthy nation not to guarantee health as a human right to its people.
Speaking to Frontline, Syed Akbaruddin, former Indian diplomat and keen observer of global politics, said: “The Trump Presidency portends greater global volatility on issues related to trade, climate change, migration, wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Given the indispensability of the US role on such matters, it will have global repercussions that other states have to prepare for.”
‘Trumpian effect’
Masha Gessen, a columnist for The New York Times, wrote in a live blog: “I think we need to rethink our framing of our political predicament. We have been talking about a highly polarised country…Trump not only may get an Electoral College landslide; he seems to have picked up votes everywhere, including every borough of New York City.”
“So we may need to stop thinking about a country that’s split down the middle and start trying to understand this country as being dominated by Trumpian politics or, perhaps more accurately, a Trumpian effect,” Gessen added.
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Not only has Trump won the presidency, the Republicans have taken control of the Senate, making the passage of legislation so much easier for Trump. As these words are being written, the battle for the House of Representatives is very much on.
“2024 surely must persuade the last doubters of something that was evident to Trump partisans from the moment he first sent his presidential ambitions aloft in 2015: He is not simply a celebrity candidate but the leader of a political movement,” John F. Harris, co-founder of Politico, wrote on the website.
Trump, he argued, resonated with the “deeper dimensions” of American character. “What is now a central part of this character is what I have called the Contempt Paradox: People are drawn to Trump and the contempt he expresses toward his opponents, especially liberal politicians and the news media, precisely because of the contempt he draws in return. This is the through line of his politics.”
“Now, however, there is a new challenge for Trump. Much of his political energy comes from victimhood—the perception that he is valiantly fighting back against entrenched forces. How does that work now, in light of the reality that he has unambiguously bested those forces?” Harris added.
The outsider
The challenge has been framed. Although he is already a one-term President, Trump has managed to portray himself as the outsider, someone who is battling the forces of the status quo. The President-elect got away with the notion that there was a conspiracy against him these past four years as he unleashed a robust campaign against the Democrats, President Joe Biden, and later against candidate Kamala Harris.
Navtej Sarna, former Indian Ambassador to the US, told Frontline: “Trump has scored a convincing victory. He has obviously tapped the pulse of the American people. They are looking at day-to-day pocketbook issues.”
Sarna argued that the vulnerabilities of the foreign policy of the past four years had not gone down well with Americans. The country, he said, was divided not just between Republicans and Democrats, but between looking inwards and playing the role of a global policeman.
US President-elect Donald Trump with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan on June 29, 2019. Questions remain about whether Trump would persist in a hawkish policy towards China, which was evident in his first term. | Photo Credit: Susan Walsh/AP/File Photo
Trump’s foreign policy was likely to be transactional and personality-driven. Sarna, who was India’s Ambassador to the US during Trump’s first term, said the President-elect had promised to end the Ukraine war but the question remained whether he could do it.
“Trump will get NATO to do some of the heavy lifting,” Sarna said, pointing also to the possibility of re-engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country is fighting a war with Ukraine.
On West Asia, the former Indian Ambassador felt that Trump would not restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose forces remain focussed on taking the daily toll of innocent Palestinian lives, and who has now extended his campaign of bombing from the air to Lebanon.
“We have been treated so badly, mostly by allies…Our allies treat us actually worse than our so-called enemies,” Trump said at a rally in September. “On military, we protect them and then they screw us on trade. We’re not going to let it happen anymore. We’re going to be a tariff nation,” he added.
Asked whether Trump would persist in a hawkish policy towards China which was evident in his first term, Sarna said he would put more premium on Trump’s unpredictability.
Foreign policy linked to domestic agenda
Trump is going to come as a package—a change in foreign policy gear will be linked to his domestic agenda. The President-elect’s softness or toughness will be dictated by the message he wants to deliver to his constituents back home.
Ending the Ukraine war could mean a domestic plus for Trump, but it could lead to friction with America’s NATO allies. The “how” of it will, however, prove to be a hard task to accomplish. Given that Ukraine has been armed to the teeth by a US-led NATO and the rhetoric has been raised to impossible highs in Western capitals, it remains to be seen how Trump will get the job done.
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On Indo-US relations, Sarna said the two countries would waft through. When asked about the personal equation between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Sarna replied that it “always helps” when two leaders get along. But this did not mean that Trump would not speak up on tariff issues, he added.
“For India, while the big picture will likely be of continuity of ties, adjustments will be necessary as both challenges and opportunities are likely to be in the offing,” Akbaruddin, who served as India’s permanent representative to the United Nations in New York, added.
All eyes—inside and outside the US—will be on Trump. What he says and what he does even as lame duck Joe Biden continues to occupy the White House.
One thing is clear: Trump’s second term as President will not be boring.
Amit Baruah is a former diplomatic correspondent of The Hindu and foreign editor of Hindustan Times.
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