A students’ protest demanding reform in the country’s reservation system for government jobs turned violent and turned into a political protest that managed to force Hasina out of power. This occurred in the wake of indiscriminate police firing and street clashes that resulted in the deaths of countless students.
Hasina, who flew into India on the evening of August 5, has been provided temporary residence in the country until she decides her future. However, the former Bangladesh Prime Minister may now be seen as someone who was largely responsible for her own downfall as she left behind a dubious legacy.
In a statement to Parliament on August 6, Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar indicated that Hasina ignored India’s advice to show restraint and resolve the crisis through dialogue. “Throughout this period, we repeatedly counselled restraint and urged that the situation be diffused through dialogue,” Jaishankar said.
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He also pointed out that the underlying tension, which had been increasing since Bangladesh’s parliamentary election in January, was the reason for the students’ protest, which demanded the scrapping of quotas for jobs that reserved 56 per cent for various categories of people and gave 30 per cent of jobs to the grandchildren of freedom fighters. This was considered an unfair privilege extended, in perpetuity, to families of freedom fighters while other students, who fell outside such categories, had to fight for the limited jobs available.
Unyielding forces
Hasina, in fact, did scrap the quota system but the High Court Division in Bangladesh restored it. Hasina moved the Supreme Court to challenge the ruling. Jaishankar told Parliament that the Supreme Court reduced the quotas (to 5 per cent for freedom fighters’ descendants) but there was no let-up in the public agitation. “Various decisions and actions taken thereafter only exacerbated the situation,” he added, suggesting that hard-line positions by both the government and the protesters had worsened the situation and had finally led to Hasina’s ouster.
Reports from Bangladesh say that large-scale violence and mayhem are continuing in different parts of the country. The police and Awami League leaders have become special targets of the armed gangs who are roaming the streets of Dhaka as well as other cities and towns. There have also been reports of attacks on religious minorities in the country and their houses and businesses, which Jaishankar said was of serious concern.
Hasina’s request to come to India came at very short notice and after all her attempts to convince senior military and police officials to use more force against the protesters failed. Hasina’s flight landed at the Hindon airbase near New Delhi. The former Prime Minister is likely to be in India until she decides on her future plans. “The government wants to give Hasina some time to decide her future plan,” Jaishankar said afterwards.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted an all-party meeting in Parliament on August 6 to assess the situation in Bangladesh and discuss the former Bangladesh Prime Minister’s future status. India’s stakes in Bangladesh are high and the continuance of violence and unrest can adversely affect the bordering States and other parts of the country. Hasina was one of India’s close strategic partners in a neighbourhood which is fraught with anti-Indian sentiment. This also meant that the country’s anger towards her was often directed towards India by Hasina’s opponents, as they believed that she was in power mostly through unfair means and thanks to New Delhi’s support.
Military control
The Bangladesh army is now in control and has appealed for peace, a cessation of violence, and urged the protesters to return home. It has assured the nation that a caretaker government will soon be put in place to govern the country until the election is held to choose a new leadership.
Mohammed Shahabuddin, the Bangladesh President has also aired similar views, announcing that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairperson Khaleda Zia and other political leaders will be released from jail and house arrest to ease the tension and restore normalcy.
Border Security Force personnel stand guard at the India-Bangladesh border on August 6. Bangladesh’s army chief Gen. Waker-uz Zaman was due to meet student protest leaders a day after the military took control after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled Bangladesh. | Photo Credit: DIBYANGSHU SARKAR/AFP
It remains to be seen how early the army hands over power and allows civilians to rule the country. The army has ruled Bangladesh for 15 years, either directly or by supporting civilian leaders of its choice, since the country’s independence in 1971.
Opinion among experts is divided on whether the army should continue to govern the country for a while or immediately hand over the reins of the country to a civilian-led caretaker government until the election.
Pulling the strings
The student protesters who threw Hasina out of power have declared that they do not want the army to rule the country anymore. The army, in turn, has assured them that it will give up power as soon as a caretaker government is put in place. However, there are several doubts about whether the army will indeed return to the barracks once a caretaker government takes over. There is a strong possibility that while it may not be directly involved in running the country, it may continue to control the levers from behind the scenes in the name of assuring stability and peace in Bangladesh.
For India, the top priority will be to ensure that peace and normalcy return to Bangladesh at the earliest so that its citizens are not harmed and the investments it has made in Bangladesh are not jeopardised. India will also want the bilateral trade between the two sides to resume as it accounts for over $14 billion.
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The biggest immediate task for India will be to repair its ties with the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which is likely to play an important role in any future government in Dhaka. India may find it comparatively easy to engage the BNP leadership, but it is likely to have some difficulty in coming to terms with the Jamaat-e-Islami, an organisation that it has demonised as a religious fundamentalist and pro-Pakistani outfit for long. The organisation is a close associate of the BNP and in most agitations has provided the party with street power and muscle, including the one that mingled with the protesting students to throw Hasina out of power.
It may be too soon to comment on the legacy that Hasina leaves behind. Age is not on her side—she is now 76-years-old and realistically speaking, her chances of staging a political comeback are next to none. But her hurried departure from Bangladesh leaves her party with the huge challenge of reinventing itself and making itself relevant again in Bangladesh politics.
With its long history of struggle and protest, will the Awami League, which has played a large role in shaping Bangladesh as it is today, simply fade away or will it survive in a different form? That will be the question to ask as the dust settles in the neighbourhood.
Pranay Sharma is a commentator on political and foreign affairs-related developments. He has worked in senior editorial positions in leading media organisations.
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