Mission to Colombo

India's Foreign Secretary on an unannounced visit conveys the message that India will not shy away from its obligations.

B. MURALIDHAR REDDY in Colombo

AFTER watching anxiously for weeks the war clouds gathering over Sri Lanka, the international community has stepped in gingerly but with a clear message: a war is unaffordable for the island nation, the region and the world and should be prevented at any cost.

Pressure is mounting on the Indian government from within and outside Sri Lanka to play a more pro-active role in order to resolve the ethnic conflict. Ironically, the parties concerned continue to hold on to their expectations despite New Delhi's clear articulation of policy on the current phase of unrest in Sri Lanka.

Therein lies the significance of Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's visit to Colombo on July 3 and 4. Its timing was as important as the unambiguous message he conveyed to the Mahinda Rajapakse government: India has a role and responsibility and it would not shy away from its obligations. However, the Indian role can only be complementary.

A revival of the `political dialogue' for the devolution of powers is the best way to ease the war-like situation arising out of the daily killings. It is widely acknowledged that only an expeditious resolution of the grievances of the various ethnic communities and minorities can create the right environment to take the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) head on.

The Foreign Secretary made it known to his interlocutors in Colombo that the current security situation should not be viewed in isolation. While the Sri Lankan government must respond to the challenge posed by the Tigers, it was equally imperative to revive the `political dialogue' and put on the fast track the quest for a solution to the decades-old conflict, he pointed out. In an oblique reference to the steady flow of refugees to India (more than 4,500 on July 10), the Foreign Secretary said the failure to stem the violence would have `consequences'.

Mention was made of India's willingness to share its constitutional experience in accommodating the political and economic aspirations of diverse sections of society. Shyam Saran talked about a variance of the `Indian model' as a possible solution to the ethnic strife and refrained from using the phrase federalism, which for the ultra-nationalist parties in the island is like a red rag to a bull.

The subject of military cooperation also figured in Saran's various interactions. He chose to be matter of fact on the issue at least in his comments to the Indian media in Colombo. Sri Lanka desires greater military cooperation with India and whispers in the corridors of power in Colombo are that New Delhi has not paid enough attention to the growing military power of the LTTE.

India looks at the issue differently. Saran said both countries were engaged in continuous defence cooperation and it would continue. "We would like to strengthen the deterrence capabilities of the Sri Lanka military. Our defence cooperation is not related to an incident here or there," he said in response to a question about the perceived Indian "indifference".

Shyam Saran said India was ready to consider military cooperation where it was required and a decision was made recently to supply air-defence radars. The underlying message from New Delhi was that the current phase of violence should not be viewed through the defence prism alone and the political dimension was equally important in isolating the Tigers.

Given the history and the sensitivities of Indian involvement in Sri Lanka, both sides avoided publicising Saran's visit. Such was the caution that when the media got scent of it they were told that the visit had been "cancelled" because of scheduling problems. The caution emanated perhaps from the desire to ensure that India did not appear like a `big brother'.

Though not stated in public, New Delhi is concerned about Mahinda Rajapakse's inability to persuade the various parties to get on board his all-parties conference (APC) initiative to seek a consensus on the devolution of powers. The move cannot go far as long as the main Opposition party, the United National Party (UNP), is not enthused by it. The UNP has refused to nominate its candidate to the APC on the grounds that the President must unveil his vision before approaching others. New Delhi sees this as typical party rivalry and Saran's meeting with Ranil Wickremesinghe, Leader of the Opposition and a former Prime Minister, was significant in this context.

Several factors seem to guide the Indian response to the current situation. The LTTE is definitely involved in attacks and assassinations but is not necessarily alone in the game. In New Delhi's assessment there are elements within the Sri Lanka military and the ruling combine itching for a fight to the finish. Apparently their argument is that Sri Lanka has had enough of the Tigers, whose active cadre estimates vary from 4,000 to 6,000, and it was time for the 1,50,000-strong military to teach them a lesson once and for all.

There are reports, independent and otherwise, suggesting provocative actions by the Sri Lanka military, particularly in the North and the East. The June 17 attack on a church on the coast in Mannar, one of the exit points for Tamils fleeing to India, is a case in point. At least five persons were killed and many were injured in the firing on the church, where about 3,000 people had gathered following a fierce fight between the LTTE and the Sri Lanka Navy. The military and the LTTE blamed each other for the attack. An inquiry by a fact-finding team of a non-governmental organisation (NGO) pointed fingers at the Navy.

The President ordered a high-level inquiry into the incident. Later, hours after Saran boarded the flight back to New Delhi, the President, in a public directive, asked the armed forces and the paramilitary forces to allow the Sri Lanka Human Rights Commission to perform its duties and ensure that the fundamental rights of those arrested or detained are not violated.

Another important factor worrying New Delhi is the tendency of some influential players in the establishment in Colombo to put all the blame for the current situation on the international community. Norway, the official facilitator of the peace process, has particularly been at the receiving end and Sri Lanka-watchers are intrigued about the motives behind such attacks.

Others too share India's concerns and perceptions. The American Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Jeffrey Lunstead, in his address on July 4 to commemorate American independence, spoke plainly about the state of affairs in Sri Lanka. He said:

"I am leaving now after three years in Sri Lanka - years filled with wonderful memories of a beautiful island and beautiful people. I have to confess, however, that I leave with some disappointment. When I arrived three years ago, there was a tremendous sense of hope and optimism in the country.

"The ceasefire and the rounds of peace talks had given hope that the island's ethnic issue would be resolved and that the entire country would move towards a peaceful resolution. No one expected that this would be easy, or that it would be accomplished quickly. But most people hoped there would be steady progress. That hope has been largely belied. Peace talks have not resumed; the ceasefire is under constant pressure. Violence has increased. Barricades which had been dismantled are being once again thrown up. And not just physical barricades, but also the barricades which divide one citizen from another, as fear and mistrust grow."

Outlining the American position, the Ambassador told the distinguished gathering that there is no military solution to the ethnic problem; the LTTE must renounce terrorism and violence and enter the political path; the government must work to address legitimate Tamil grievances and ensure that the conduct of its security forces is impeccable, even in the face of severe provocation.

He noted that a solution would require radical changes in the way the entire nation is governed - changes that will empower all the people of Sri Lanka - Sinhalese, Tamils, Muslims and others - and give them a greater say in how they are governed in the areas where they live.

Dew Gunasekara, a senior Minister in the Rajapakse government and the general secretary of the Communist Party of Sri Lanka, best reflects the sentiments within the liberal sections and the intelligentsia in the country. Speaking on the anniversary of the Communist Party of Sri Lanka, again on July 4, he said:

"This is why we of the Left movement consistently demand a speedy solution to this problem. This is a national problem, which needs a national effort for its solution. No single party can solve this problem by itself as history has provided evidence. We, as communists, demand the need for a collective effort and consensus on the part of the two major parties for the resolution of this problem.

"Terrorism is one aspect of this issue. Terrorism can be finally curbed only with the resolution of the ethnic issues inherent and integrated into it. Further internationalisation of the issue will give rise to further complications. We must be ready to meet with what the Tamil people need and not what the LTTE wants or demands. There are forces both in the North as well as in the South who attempt to push the country back to war. War will only cause death and destruction and nothing else.

"It is the duty of the government to protect the life and property of the people, of all communities. That does not necessarily warrant resort to war by ourselves. [The] LTTE's intransigence demands its isolation from the international community as well as from the Tamil civil society. That can be achieved only through the offer of a political solution. India, due to geographical and historical realities, is a factor that we cannot dispense with."

In yet another coincidence, in a widely publicised interview to an Indian television channel hours after meeting Saran, the Sri Lankan President reiterated his invitation to the Tigers to come to the negotiating table with a draft solution to the ethnic strife. The following day he constituted a 12-member multi-ethnic group to counsel him on the proposals he could present before the APC.

However, he does not seem to want the help of the main Opposition party. Or what is one to make of the fact that on July 7 Rajapakse inducted into his Ministry a fourth defector from the UNP knowing full well that he had invited Ranil Wickremesinghe for talks. And without the cooperation of the main Opposition party a political solution to the ethnic conflict is virtually impossible.