Succession politics

Viktor Zubkov, the

ON September 12, President Vladimir Putin dismissed Russias government ahead of elections for a new Parliament and President and appointed a little-known ally, Viktor Zubkov, the countrys new Prime Minister. After months of speculation about a possible reshuffle, Putin said he had accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov and his government during a meeting in the Kremlin. Later, the Kremlin announced that Zubkov had been nominated as the new head of government ahead of parliamentary elections on December 2 and a presidential poll in March 2008.

The move was a surprise. But it fails to clarify who will take over from Putin when he steps down as President in the spring. Zubkov is a close friend and political ally but is not regarded as a possible successor. Most analysts believe that Sergei Ivanov the hawkish former Defence Minister is still the Presidents most likely choice. A decision on the successor has been postponed for now. This latest reshuffle is technical rather than political, Boris Makarenko, the deputy director of Moscows Centre for Political Technologies, said on September 12, adding: Its a piece of the puzzle. But its not the whole puzzle. My idea is that the successor will be named after the parliamentary elections.

Fradkov, who had led the government since 2004, carried on in his old role until Zubkovs nomination was confirmed on September 14 by the Duma, Russias Parliament.

There is now growing speculation that Putin might retire only temporarily and come back as President in 2012. Were Zubkov to succeed him and then resign, Putin could get his old job back sooner. Russias leading liberal Opposition party said Zubkovs appointment showed Putin had no intention of giving up power. The appointment of a man with no political profile as Prime Minister ... means that in this country there is only one source of power, Grigory Yavlinsky, the leader of Yabloko, said. This appointment is in fact a step towards the continuation of Vladimir Putins rule after the end of his formal term.

Either way, the events of September 12 suggest that Putin is determined to install trusted allies in positions of influence before his departure. Zubkov, who turned 66 on September 15, is an old friend from St. Petersburg. In 1992, he was Putins deputy in the external relations office of St. Petersburgs Mayor. He later led Edinstvo (Unity), a pro-Kremlin party, before taking a job in the Finance Ministry. When Putin celebrated his birthday in 2000 he invited 21 people to a restaurant in Pavlovsk. Zubkov was one of them. Political observers say the two are close but not intimate. In 2004, Zubkov was made Russias chief financial crime investigator.

Its interesting. It shows that Putin is selecting people from his own narrow circle to head key government institutions, Vyacheslav Nikonin, an analyst, told Russia Today TV. Asked whether Zubkov might take over, he said: I dont think so and added: Putin wants to create in his administration a system of checks and balances between government institutions.

Up until now even senior Kremlin officials have been unsure of Putins succession strategy. Deputy Prime Minister Ivanov, and Dmitry Medvedev, also a Deputy Prime Minister, are seen as possible successors. The West will be watching developments in Moscow keenly. Most analysts believe that whoever takes over is unlikely to adopt a more conciliatory approach to the West.

LUKE HARDINGGuardian News & Media 2007