Historic win

In a landmark event, Recep Tayyip Erdogan becomes the first Turkish Prime Minister in the last 50 years to win three elections consecutively.

THE landslide victory of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, in the June 12 parliamentary elections, has not come as a big surprise to observers of the Turkish political scene. The AKP got more than 50 per cent of the votes cast but this could only translate into 326 seats in the 550-member Parliament. This is short of the two-thirds majority needed to make major policy and constitutional changes that the party had promised in its election manifesto.

The AKP will need the help of opposition parties to fulfil its wide-ranging promises. It will now be forced to cut deals with the Centre-Left Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition grouping. The CHP polled three million more votes this time, increasing its vote share from 21 to 26 per cent.

The CHP's new leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, managed to change the image of the party. Under the previous leader, the CHP was seen as a mouthpiece of the armed forces and the elite. Now it has rebranded itself as a social democratic party. Incidentally, it is the only party that could increase its representation in Parliament. The extreme right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) managed to get the votes (above the 10 per cent cut off point) needed to have a presence in Parliament despite the sex scandals plaguing its top leadership. The AKP had hoped that the MHP's vote share would dip below the 10 per cent threshold so that the seats allotted to the MHP would end up in its kitty. With the votes registered for the MHP upsetting this plan, the AKP has been left without a two-thirds majority.

All the same, the electoral outcome set the stage for a landmark event in Turkey. AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan becomes the first Turkish Prime Minister in the last 50 years to win three elections consecutively. Erdogan became Prime Minister for the first time in 2003 after the newly formed AK Party won a majority with only 34 per cent of the votes. During his first term, Erdogan succeeded in reviving the country's faltering economy and implemented a foreign policy that has made Turkey a key player in regional politics. Turkey has become a role model for the people in the region as they seek to overthrow authoritarian regimes.

Erdogan's third term has the potential to be a historic one if he manages to fulfil his promise of rewriting the 1982 Constitution and find a lasting solution to the long-running Kurdish problem. The current Turkish Constitution was written after 1980 following a military coup and has an authoritarian imprint. Even the staunchly secular CHP has accepted that the Constitution is outdated.

The Turkish state has expended a lot of its energy and resources in dealing with the Kurdish problem. At the beginning of Erdogan's second term in office, both sides seemed to be willing to settle their problems amicably, with the state recognising the Kurdish identity and the Kurds reciprocating by giving up their secessionist demands. But progress towards a comprehensive settlement has been stalled owing to a variety of factors. Erdogan took the first steps to reach out to the sizable Kurdish minority, which had been alienated during the decades of authoritarian rule. The Erdogan government took the initiative to recognise officially the Kurdish language and allow its use in television programmes and radio shows. In the last elections, in view of these policies, the AK Party did quite well in the Kurdish-dominated north-eastern part of the country.

But this time around, the Kurdish nationalists opposed to the AKP have swept the region. The Kurds were angry at the failure of the government to devolve powers and release all political prisoners. The government has refused to lift the ban on the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), which has spearheaded their struggle. Its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, is serving a life term in a high-security prison. The pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), which won 35 crucial seats in Parliament in the June election, wants the government to allow the use of the Kurdish language in the administrative and educational institutions in the north-eastern region.

The BDP has demanded the speedy release of political prisoners and an end to the military operations against the PKK. The Kurdish conflict has resulted in the death of more than 40,000 civilians and has polarised the nation. The PKK has threatened to resume the hostilities if the government did not start formal talks with its leadership at the earliest. Erdogan is unlikely to make any more concessions to the Kurds. He has said on several occasions that he considers the issue solved.

Erdogan, meanwhile, continues to stride the Turkish political stage like a colossus. He has won more votes in this election than he did four years ago. He won around 47 per cent of the votes in 2007. His personal popularity at this juncture seems to be rivalling that of Kemal Ataturk, the legendary founder of modern-day Turkey. It was during his second term that Erdogan consolidated his hold on the state machinery, managing to sideline the powerful armed forces which had played a central role in the country's politics for more than five decades. During his first term in office, the top leadership of the Turkish army, in alliance with influential sections of the political establishment and the judiciary, known as the deep state, almost succeeded in overthrowing the AKP government in a soft coup. Influential sections of the top army brass had accused the AKP of trying to subvert the secular ideology of the state.

During his second term, aided by a booming economy, Erdogan eased into the role of a world statesman. For the first time, a Turkish leader dared to take a stand that differed from that of the West. Even during his first term in office, when he was on slippery political ground, Erdogan had showed that he was capable of taking decisions that were unpalatable to Washington. Soon after coming to power, he saw to it that the United States' forces were not allowed to invade neighbouring Iraq through the Turkish land borders. That move proved to be popular among the electorate and paid rich dividends in the 2007 elections.

ACTIVIST FOREIGN POLICY

Under Erdogan, Turkey's relations with Israel have witnessed dramatic changes. Turkey was the only Islamic nation with whom Israel had close political and strategic ties. Israel's invasion of Lebanon, followed by its barbaric attack on the Gaza Strip, elicited strong negative reactions from Ankara. Joint military exercises were scaled down gradually. Bilateral ties hit rock bottom after nine Turkish civilians on a humanitarian mission to Gaza were killed in cold blood by Israeli commandos in international waters. Erdogan ordered his Ambassador back. The strategic and military relationship between the two countries is now in a shambles. Erdogan's actions boosted his popularity not only within Turkey but also in the Arab world. In his first major speech after the election results were announced, Erdogan emphasised that Turkey would continue to follow an activist foreign policy.

But all of a sudden, Turkey has been confronted with new foreign policy challenges. The Arab Spring has taken the Turkish government by surprise. To Erdogan's credit, he was among the first leaders to call for the exit of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak after massive demonstrations in Cairo calling for his resignation began in January.

In Libya and Syria, he faces a bigger predicament. Turkey's bilateral ties with Syria became exceptionally strong after Erdogan came to power. In the late 1990s, the two countries had almost gone to war. Ankara had accused Damascus of aiding the PKK and giving refuge to Ocalan. After he came to power, Erdogan struck a warm rapport with Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Turkish companies started investing heavily in Syria. Turkey helped Syria emerge out of the diplomatic cold when it was under immense pressure from the West following the American invasion of Iraq. Turkish companies had also invested heavily in Libya.

The turmoil in these two countries can have unforeseen consequences for Turkey. The Turkish economy, which has been witnessing an annual growth rate of 9 per cent for the past few years, could be impacted if the uncertainty in the region continues. Turkey ranks 17th among the world's top economies. Erdogan's ambition is to bring Turkey into the ranks of the top 10 economies.

Erdogan had initially tried to mediate a truce in Libya but was rebuffed by his North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies led by the U.S. Turkish business has already suffered huge losses in Libya following the NATO-led attack on that country.

Turkey's relations with Syria seem to have soured. Damascus has not taken kindly to Erdogan's criticisms of its handling of the violent protests that have erupted on its soil.

The recent exodus of Syrian refugees across the Turkish border has caused further deterioration of the current cold relations. Turkey's foreign policy under Erdogan was based on the principle of zero problems with neighbours. With Erdogan increasingly adopting a critical tone towards the leadership in Damascus, good-neighbourly relations could well become a casualty.

Relations with Iran, another neighbour, also may suffer as a consequence. Iran is one of Syria's staunch allies. Erdogan had managed to build bridges with its Central Asian neighbour Armenia, but nationalists in both countries have seen to it that the old wounds continue to fester. Many Armenians hold the Turks responsible for the Armenian holocaust of the early 20th century. Nationalist Turks deny that a holocaust ever occurred.