Sudan: A chance for peace

Sudan’s opposition groups fighting for democracy have agreed to a power-sharing deal with the ruling military council, but civilian leaders warn that it is only a first step and their guard cannot be lowered.

Celebrations on the streets of Khartoum on July 5 after the military council and a coalition of opposition and protest groups arrived at an agreement to share power.

In the first week of July, just a month after the bloody crack down on peaceful civilian protesters by the Sudanese military and at a time when hopes for a compromise solution to the crisis in Sudan were fading, the African Union (A.U.) announced that the political impasse had finally ended. In talks brokered by the A.U., Sudan’s ruling military council and the coalition of civilian groups that have been valiantly fighting for the restoration of democracy agreed to a power-sharing formula, leading to the formation of a transitional government. In a development that took observers of the region by surprise, both sides agreed to the formation of a joint military-civilian sovereign council. Mohamed El Hacen Lebatt, the A.U. mediator, said that the council would “run the country for three years or slightly more”. Opposition leaders have said that the arrangement will last for three years and three months.

The agreement was announced a few days after the country witnessed huge protests. The opposition said that 128 people were killed on June 3, when the protests began. The protest leaders had called on the people to launch a total civil disobedience movement. The country was brought to a complete halt for three days after the public responded to the call. In all, more than 150 opposition protesters were killed by the military in June. The crackdown had briefly demoralised the opposition, sending many of the protest leaders underground. But the opposition quickly regrouped. The protests in the last week of June were some of the biggest that Khartoum, the capital, has witnessed so far.

The latest round of protests, which occurred simultaneously in all the major cities, could have sent a strong signal to the military junta. The protests were organised despite the closure of the Internet by the authorities and the imposition of a ban on meetings and press conferences of the opposition.

External pressure

The A.U. suspended Sudan after the army refused to cede power to civilians following the ouster of the former military ruler, Omar al-Bashir. The European Union was also piling up pressure on the military regime. It has promised economic assistance to the country on the condition that it transitions to civilian rule. The Donald Trump administration has been loath to take a strong stand against the military and has preferred to let the Saudis and the Emiratis take the lead in Sudan. President Trump himself has showed in the last three years that he is more comfortable dealing with strong authoritarian rulers in the region such as General Fattah El-Sisi and the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohamad bin Salman. In Libya, the Trump administration is openly supporting another strongman-in-waiting, Gen. Khalifa Haftar, against the internationally recognised government in Tripoli.

According to reports, it was the behind-the-scenes role of the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that pushed the Sudanese military into serious negotiations with the opposition. There is a perception in Sudan that the June 3 attacks were carried out with the tacit approval of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Sudan’s top military leaders visited Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Cairo before they ordered the crackdown. After Bashir’s ouster, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt voiced their support for the military junta that replaced Bashir.

The Saudis and the Emiratis had even promised to bail out the Sudanese economy by offering billions of dollars in aid after Bashir’s ouster. Tahir Osman al-Hussein, who was once a close associate of the former President, had come back to Sudan from exile in Saudi Arabia. He is known to be close to the Saudi royals. After he fell out with Bashir and escaped to Riyadh, he was appointed as a special adviser on African affairs in the Saudi royal court. Many Sudanese suspect that he played some kind of a role in recent events. According to reports in the American media, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi had an apparent change of heart after the June 3 crackdown. General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (widely known as Hemeti), who supervised the crackdown, was in Riyadh a few days earlier, meeting with Mohamed bin Salman. The two are known to be exceptionally close. Dagalo has been instrumental in despatching thousands of Sudanese mercenaries to help the Saudis in their brutal war in Yemen.

According to reports, the Saudis and the Emiratis became alarmed with the growing unpopularity of their closest ally among the Sudanese people. The two monarchies reportedly played a role in kick-starting a new round of talks, which resulted in the latest deal.

The Gulf monarchies have invested in huge land purchases in Sudan for agricultural purposes and also depend on the country to a great extent for meat imports.

Instability in Sudan, one of the most important countries in the region, would add to the chaos already prevalent there. The last thing the U.S. and its allies want is the establishment of a government in Sudan that is detrimental to their interests. The Gulf monarchies and their regional allies such as Egypt fear that the Muslim Brothers could fill the political vacuum if the unrest continues in Sudan. Egypt shares with Sudan a long border and the waters of the Nile.

Ruling arrangement

Under the agreement, five seats in the council would go to the military and five to representatives from civilian parties and groups that spearheaded the protest movement. One additional seat in the proposed ruling council will be given to a civilian who is acceptable to both the military and the protest movement. The ruling Transitional Military Council (TMC) has agreed to a key opposition demand of starting a “transparent and independent” investigation into the June 3 killings. Under the terms of the new agreement, anyone found guilty will not be allowed to hold a position of power in the sovereign council. A military officer will lead the sovereign council for the first 21 months, after which a civilian will take over for the remainder of the council’s term. The head of the TMC, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, will be the first interim leader. The Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), the umbrella group of opposition parties that has been in the forefront of the struggle to restore civilian rule, has been given the task of selecting Cabinet Ministers after the sovereign council takes over from the military junta.

The military has so far opposed the formation of a purely civilian legislature. For the next three years the country in all probability will be run without a parliament.

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under General Dagalo has been accused of sexually assaulting women protesters. It is widely believed that the June 3 atrocity on unarmed civilians would not have come to pass without the approval of the head of RSF. The opposition has called for the immediate dispersal of the paramilitary forces from Khartoum and other major cities, removal of the curbs on the Internet and the release of all political prisoners.

Gen. Dagalo, who is formally the deputy head of the TMC, is viewed as the real power broker in the current military dispensation in Sudan. He has been quick to welcome the agreement with the civilian opposition groups, saying that the deal “will not exclude anyone”.

All the important opposition leaders also welcomed the deal. The Sudanese Professional Association, which played a key role in the protests that brought down Bashir, issued a statement welcoming the agreement. “Today our revolution has won and our victory shines,” the statement said. Omar Eldigair, the leader of the FFC, said that the agreement “opens the way for the formation of the institutions of transitional authority, and we hope that this is the beginning of a new era”.

The civilian opposition realises that it cannot afford to lower its guard. Khaled Omar, a protest leader, has cautioned that the agreement is only a “first step”. Many civilian leaders feel the protests should continue to keep the pressure on the military and prevent it from reneging on its commitments as it has done so many times in the past. They fear that the concessions given by the military junta are a ploy to buy time. The opposition had in any case made many concessions for a deal to be facilitated.

Gen. Dagalo has too much at stake to play second fiddle to a civilian administration for long. Besides making top dollar by sending fighters to Yemen, he has stakes in lucrative gold mines in Darfur, his military power base. Khartoum itself is occupied by the RSF, which is manned by the former “Janjaweed” fighters of Darfur. The Janjaweed, a militia comprising mainly Sudanese Arabs, played a key role alongside the Sudanese army during the war in Darfur. The long-suffering people of Sudan could be in for a long haul before popular rule is restored.