Can Anura Kumara Dissanayake deliver on his promise of systemic change in Sri Lanka?

How will the government balance addressing the economic crisis, minority concerns, and demands for political reform while navigating IMF commitments?

The newly elected President of Sri Lanka, Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Colombo, September 25, 2024. | Photo Credit: AFP

The victory of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, popularly known as AKD, in the Presidential election in Sri Lanka, marks a key shift in the country’s political arena. For a country that has elected powerful dynasts representing the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP) and their offshoots almost throughout its post-independence history, AKD’s election as President is a significant departure from politics as usual.

His three main opponents came from powerful political families whose members previously held the positions of President and Prime Minister. AKD is a member of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which started off as an insurgent political force that twice tried to capture state power through armed revolution. Following the defeat of its second insurrection in the late 1980s, the JVP integrated itself firmly into the democratic mainstream and even sent elected representatives to Parliament.

Though labelling itself as Leftist, AKD’s JVP promoted extreme Sinhala nationalism between the 1980s and 2000s. AKD contested the Presidential elections as a candidate of the National People’s Power (NPP), a moderate, left-leaning alliance of political parties and groups of which the JVP is the chief player. Hailing from humble origins, AKD was elected to Parliament multiple times and served briefly as Minister of Agriculture.

What made AKD’s rise to power possible despite him garnering only about 3 per cent of the valid votes in the last Presidential election held in 2019? His victory is linked directly to the sea change that Sri Lanka’s political discourse has seen since 2022 following a mass uprising against the incumbent government. That year, Sri Lanka faced a foreign exchange crisis that led to an acute shortage of essential goods including milk powder, medicine, cooking gas and petrol. The country was plunged into long hours of power cuts and transportation was badly disrupted. All across Sri Lanka, people waited in long queues for hours for gas and petrol. Everyday life became a crisis for people of all sections of society.

The great ousting

This economic paralysis created waves of anger against the Gotabaya Rajapaksa regime which was widely perceived as corrupt and promoting the interests of the Rajapaksa family and a group of politicians infamous for their racism, thuggery, and nepotism. Amidst the worsening economic situation, a protest movement that began on Galle Face Green in Colombo gathered momentum between April and July of 2022. Eventually, on July 9, 2022, tens of thousands of people took to the streets and ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa from power.

The widespread demand for fresh elections or a new regime purged of those associated with the Rajapaksa-led SLPP did not materialise immediately. Instead, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was the sole member of the United National Party in Parliament at the time, stepped in as President with the backing of parliamentarians representing the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the party of the Rajapaksas.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka’s former President. Colombo, September 21, 2024. | Photo Credit: Buddhika Weerasinghe

An ardent proponent of neoliberal economic reforms, Wickremasinghe quickly struck an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on debt re-structuring. The elite in Colombo backed Wickremasinghe’s negotiations with the IMF and the IMF-recommended austerity measures that he assiduously implemented. This austerity drive has resulted in a huge rise in the cost of living, unemployment and poverty within the past two years. With the increase in the prices of food, electricity, fuel and transport, the urban poor, the working classes including those attached to the garment and plantation sectors, the rural communities that relied on agriculture and fishing for livelihood, and even middle-class professionals such as teachers and civil servants suffered severely.

Wickremesinghe, whose political survival as President depended on the support of SLPP, did not take any serious measures to investigate the allegations of corruption levelled against the Rajapaksa family and their acolytes. The general public perceived Wickremesinghe as protecting a den of corrupt politicians and enabling their political comeback.

Two years elapsed without any significant rejuvenation in the lives of the majority of Sri Lankans. However, the embers of anger and dissent against the Rajapaksa family, the SLPP parliamentarians, and President Wickremesinghe were simmering within the body politic, although Wickremesinghe had managed to suppress the popular uprising by unleashing violence on the protestors.

NPP’s promise

The much-awaited Presidential election was announced in July 2024. Wickremesinghe threw himself into the race with the backing of a section of the SLPP. The leader of the opposition Sajith Premadasa joined the contest as the candidate of an alliance led by Samagi Jana Balawegaya, which included key political parties representing the minority communities. The NPP fielded Dissanayake as its candidate. Namal Rajapaksa, the scion of the Rajapaksa clan, represented the SLPP.

What made the candidacy of AKD attractive to the masses across class lines in most of the southern districts was his pronounced opposition to corruption and repeated promise to create a new culture of governance, free of nepotism and wastage of public funds and resources. The NPP also promised to ease the economic burden aggravated by austerity measures and even put out signals that it would re-negotiate the terms of the IMF agreement with the objective of increasing government spending on social welfare.

AKD’s candidacy was strengthened further by a persuasive political narrative stitched together by its supporters, which underlined that his party had never held power and therefore could not be held responsible for the problems that had plagued Sri Lanka. This discourse laid the blame for Sri Lanka’s post-colonial ills squarely at the doorsteps of established political parties such as the UNP and SLFP and their descendants Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the SLPP.

The NPP and its allies presented AKD as an anti-establishment candidate giving voice to the anger and frustration of the hardworking common man whose labour and sincerity were exploited and trampled upon by a self-seeking, uncaring political elite. Unlike Sajith Premadasa’s SJB whose members had served as ministers previously and were seen as being part of Sri Lanka’s elite political establishment, AKD and the NPP were viewed by the voters as clean and new to the field holding the promise of a radical system change. Even though the NPP’s economic agenda was devoid of Leftist vigour and did not focus sufficiently on addressing the socio-economic inequalities that were widening in the context of the neo-liberalization of the Sri Lankan economy, the party’s rhetoric around system change resonated with voters disillusioned with mainstream parties.

Challenges ahead

While AKD’s victory has infused new hope among those disenchanted with the political old guard, the road ahead is replete with challenges. The new government appears to be struggling to reduce the cost of living and create employment opportunities as it is unable to muster the necessary funds. The President’s inaugural address to the nation clearly indicates that he will not deviate much from his predecessor in engagements with the IMF. The speech focused mainly on creating stability without promising much economic relief.

To mitigate the worsening economic suffering, the new regime should implement far-reaching fiscal measures such as wealth tax, distribution of land to increase agricultural production, and redistributive measures to support the working classes and the poor. There is an urgent need for a robust, innovative economic programme that uses the resources available in the country in ways that can increase production, create employment, and strengthen communities on the margins. In the meantime, the government should explore the possibilities of re-negotiating the IMF agreement in order to free up funds for welfare initiatives that can address the immediate economic woes.

Unless such measures are taken swiftly, the electorate that backed AKD may quickly lose confidence in the new government and turn towards alternative political forces. A failure on the part of the NPP may even open the doors to chauvinistic right-wing elements who are waiting in the wings to re-capture power by taking recourse to divisive nationalist politics.

Fisherman Parasamy Thanabalasingam casts his net off the coast of Jaffna on September 17, 2024. Dissanayake’s narrative about systemic change found only limited support among the Tamil-speaking communities.  | Photo Credit: NAVESH CHITRAKAR

As the results indicate, AKD’s candidacy did not find much traction in the minority communities, even though AKD and his party toned down their Sinhala nationalist rhetoric and ran a relatively inclusive campaign. The JVP’s past complicity in fanning the flames of Sinhala chauvinism and its blatant support of the war are still etched in the minds of Tamils. Muslim and Malaiyaha Tamil communities too did not vote for AKD in large numbers as his party is still perceived as Sinhala-centric.

The failure on the part of JVP leaders to introspect into their chauvinistic history and the NPP’s reluctance to express any serious commitment to power devolution, a long-standing demand from the Tamil and Muslim majority northern and eastern regions, seem to have contributed to AKD’s poor show among the minorities. AKD’s narrative about systemic change found only limited support among the Tamil-speaking communities as it did not offer any assurance with regard to structural changes in the Sri Lankan state that the minorities have been demanding for decades.

The fear of Sinhalisation

There are serious problems that affect ethnic minorities in Sri Lanka today. The fear of Sinhalisation and Buddhisisation looms large in the northeast. In the post-war period, the region saw rampant land-grab by the state under the pretext of archaeological research and wildlife protection. The armed forces continue to have control over lands taken over during the civil war. Those who lost their lands to militarisation are in most cases Tamils and Muslims. Muslim communities are still reeling under the effects of the hate campaigns and violence that erupted in the past decade. The Malaiyaha Tamil plantation workers’ demands for increased wages, land and housing have long been ignored by successive regimes.

How AKD and his government respond to these demands and concerns will shape the minority communities’ perception of his government. For the NPP to become a truly multi-ethnic party, it has to interrogate the JVP’s chauvinistic past, embrace minority communities, and support their struggles for justice and equality.

The past two years have also seen growing demands for political reforms including the abolition of the executive presidency, which concentrates unfettered political authority in the hands of one individual. It is widely seen as a major source of authoritarianism, corruption, and the malfunctioning of the political system. It is yet to be seen if AKD will honour his promise to abolish this political behemoth before his term ends.

The skepticism has its grounds, for successive Presidents who came to power on the pledge of abolishing the executive presidency reneged and went on instead to use the powers vested in the office for self-aggrandising agendas. Whether the draconian Prevention of Terrorism Act and the repressive laws introduced during the Wickremesinghe regime will be rolled back is another test waiting for AKD to prove his credentials as a reformist leader.

The NPP’s focus now is on winning the Parliamentary election scheduled for November 14. A fractured Parliament may impede the reform agenda and incapacitate the President. However, given the brutality and pain caused by governments that came to power with an absolute parliamentary majority in Sri Lanka, a segment of Sri Lankans hold that a government with a moderate mandate or one backed by smaller parties is healthier for the country’s democracy. They believe such a regime subjected to checks and balances is more likely to take on board the concerns and expectations of the numerically smaller communities.

However, Parliament is not the only venue where the next five years of Sri Lanka’s future will be charted. As a country with a vibrant history of protest and dissent, where people’s struggles have played a pivotal role in shaping the political consciousness of the citizens and even led to radical changes in the political landscape, how communities mobilise themselves for change and justice will have a strong impact on the future of Sri Lanka even under this new political dispensation.

Mahendran Thiruvarangan is a Senior Lecturer in English at the University of Jaffna.