Sri Lanka: Anura Dissanayake is ahead

There seems no route to the 50 per cent plus one vote that is required in the first round for any candidate.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake waves to his supporters during a rally ahead of the upcoming Presidential elections in Colombo on September 18, 2024. | Photo Credit: ISHARA S. KODIKARA /AFP

The National People’s Power (NPP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake is ahead in the Sri Lankan Presidential race as campaigning closed for the Sri Lankan Presidential election at midnight on September 18. Dissanayake’s party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is the major party in the NPP coalition.

“Earlier, only politicians used to be concerned about elections,” Dissanayake said at his last, well-attended public meeting in Kaluthara, just over 40 km from Colombo late on September 18. “But let me tell you that this is the first time in the history of Sri Lankan politics that people are discussing this election and waiting for the polling day eagerly,” he added.

His supporters in the crowd responded with a roaring ‘yes’; and the same sentiment is reflected across the Sinhala-dominated southern and central regions of Sri Lanka. “I want a drastic change,” said Nandana, who drives tourists to the resorts around Sri Lanka for a living, and was among the millions affected by the economic downturn of 2022. The meltdown sent prices soaring, imports impossible and affected every living person in the tear-drop nation. “I will vote AKD [Dissanayake],” he emphasised, and tried explaining to me what a “drastic change” meant.

A ‘minor change’ would be about replacing one set of politicians who were in power before the crushing 2022: a kind of cosmetic modification, perhaps even seen as continuity, he explained. A “drastic change,” on the other hand, called for a complete revamp of the manner in which Sri Lanka conducted its politics: a complete break from the patronage politics of the past, he added.

“All the other candidates have been part of the same power structures,” insisted Manoj, a tour operator, who has worked in Gulf countries and speaks a smattering of Hindi and Malayalam, among other languages. “You look at Ranil [the current President, Ranil Wickremesinghe]. He protected the Rajapaksas from being prosecuted. [Gotabaya Rajapaksa was in power when the economic downturn happened]. Sajith [Premadasa] has been part of the same system and he has not proved himself,” he added. In his view, there are only three serious candidates, though there are 38 on the ballot paper. 

Manoj was referring to Gotabaya Rajapaksa fleeing after the Aragalaya protest of July 2022, and the fact that though he returned, none of the Rajapaksas were touched by the subsequent President, Wickremesinghe. In short, no politician paid for the misery that they had collectively inflicted on the people. This, he contended, was unacceptable.

Many voters from Negambo, a city on the beach northwest of Colombo’s airport, and in Galle, a port town over a 100 km southeast of Colombo, echoed the sentiment expressed by Nandana. One common thread was conflating the economic mismanagement during a highly stressful period for the country, with corruption. For the people, their hardship was a direct result of the corruption of the politicians in power ahead of the 2022 downturn.

Postulating that corruption led to the economic downturn, is the most dominant narrative in the Sinhala-majority south and central regions of Sri Lanka. And, it appears that this is the reason why an untested Dissanayake of the NPP is ahead in these areas. 

But, it is uncertain if Dissanayake will win with the Constitution-stipulated 50 per cent plus one vote required to seal the election in the first round. In all the elections in recent memory, though there have been many candidates, there are only two major formations fighting it out.

In 2019, the serial bomb blasts across churches in Sri Lanka all but ensured victory for one candidate, even before the close of campaign. At that time, candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who was instrumental in obliterating the Tamil Tigers in 2009, was considered the person who could ensure the security of Sri Lanka. He won a massive mandate.

The election before that, in 2015, which led to the shock defeat of Gotabaya’s brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa, there was only one other serious candidate in the fray, Maithripala Sirisena. Sirisena won. In 2010, Mahinda, who called for a snap election after the defeat of the Tamil Tigers, fought a spirited challenge from General Sarath Fonseka to capture the post.

Sajith Premadasa addresses his supporters during an election campaign in Colombo, on September 18, 2024. | Photo Credit: Thilina Kaluthotage

This time around, there are at least three major candidates and each one of them thinks that he has a huge chance. The Samagi Jana Balawegaya Presidential candidate and leader of the Opposition in the Sri Lankan Parliament, Sajith Premadasa, has taken the welfare route to reach people’s hearts. At a rally in Monaragala, nearly 350 km by road from Colombo, Sajith invoked his father, former President R. Premadasa. “Vote for the ‘telephone’ symbol, and give the son of Premadasa the chance to lead the country.”

The appeal, riding on the late Premadasa, might not yield him much, but Sajith’s biggest support base is the minority population in Sri Lanka. Given the fact that the major Muslim parties, and at least one major Tamil political party, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), is supporting him, Sajith has the advantage of starting with about a 10 per cent lead over the other candidates. Though a large percentage of Tamil and Muslim minority votes might go to Sajith, his victory will still depend on how much he can poll in the Sinhala areas.

The Tamils in Sri Lanka have never been a united force. This time around, even the ITAK is not presenting a united face. The ITAK’s elected president, S. Sritharan, has refused to heed a majority decision of the party’s apex body, and has endorsed a common Tamil candidate, P. Ariyanethiran. Another senior ITAK leader, who was part of the apex body deliberations, and agreed with the decision that ITAK should support Sajith, Maavai Senathirajah, is now supporting the Tamil common candidate.

One local leader from the Tamil-dominated region Jaffna, told Frontline: “The leaders are confused. The Tamil people are not.” Asked if this meant that the Tamil people would vote en masse for the ITAK’s choice, Sajith, he merely responded: “You will see.”

Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka’s President, during a campaign rally in Colombo, September 18, 2024. | Photo Credit: Buddhika Weerasinghe

The manner in which President Wickremesinghe has been speaking across platforms, it appears that he genuinely believes that the people of Sri Lanka have to hand him a second term because he had turned around the economy and had lifted the country out of distress. “I took over a bankrupt country,” Wickremesinghe told a rally in Matara. “I took charge and I have rescued the country and now it is normal... But there is a lot of work to be done,” he added.

Wickremesinghe has been in all the Tamil areas across the country, and is seeking their vote. Having watched his campaign from afar, Sajith has accused Wickremesinghe and Dissanayake of “playing a drama” and has contended that both are part of the same “team.” This allegation is because Sajith is worried that Wickremesinghe would take away some of the minority votes that he [Sajith] would otherwise get.

“I am sure a majority of the Tamil votes will go to Sajith,” said Shanakiya Rasamanickam, Batticaloa MP and ITAK leader. He said that he was getting a very positive feedback from the people. He believes that the people of the north and the east will be better off with a Sajith presidency.

It is clear that the interest in the polls is not merely as to who would win but also who is placed third. While the winner gets to lead the country in an era of unprecedented economic and strategic uncertainty, the person who is placed third will be forced to bid goodbye to politics.

There are only two contenders to the number three slot: former Presidential hopeful Sajith Premadasa, whose coalition, the SJB, has made a spirited campaign ahead of the polls, and current President Wickremesinghe, who has gambled by preferring to contest as an independent, though backed by his party, the United National Party.

If Wickremesinghe ends up at number three, his career is nearly over: at 75, he cannot play the waiting game yet again and hope for a turnaround in the next election. His supporters point out that he still will have a role in Parliament, where the majority of members support him. But that will be short-lived, because the Parliamentary election will follow the Presidential election.

“If Sajith is pushed to the number three slot, he will quit politics,” predicted a politician who is close to Sajith. “He is not the guy who will hang around like Ranil did, and hope that the heavens will find him a way out. He will say, ‘I have tried twice and failed. Now it is somebody else’s turn,’” he added.

Sajith’s supporter was obliquely pointing to the fact that Wickremesinghe did not step down as UNP president despite repeated losses to first, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, and, later, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna. He hung on to the post, and it was a mix of luck and fate that actually put Ranil in the seat as President in 2022, the first unelected President in the history of Sri Lanka.

A tour of Colombo and its neighbouring districts indicate that the fight is between Dissanayake and Sajith. In the southern Sinhala-Buddhist dominated districts, Dissanayake has reasonably good support. Sajith too has committed voters in the south, a base that he built in the run-up to the 2019 polls, but his trump card is the Tamil support from the northeast, the hill districts and in Colombo.

There seems no route to the 50 per cent plus one vote that is required in the first round for any candidate. That will bring counting of the second preference votes into play, and more uncertainty in Sri Lanka. Counting begins soon after the close of polls, and the results are expected to be announced by September 22.