In the hardboiled regions of Gorakhpur, Ghazipur, Azamgarh, Ballia, Mau, Bhadohi, and Jaunpur, not many fans are willing to buy either the Modi magic or the Rahul resurrection theory. In the last two phases of polling, it is rozgar (employment) that resonates with force here.
This despite the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi powers the BJP narrative from the Varanasi end and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath from the Gorakhpur end. The rainbow social coalition of castes assiduously built by the BJP shows signs of rupture and Modi is no longer the unquestionable deity of development. Nor is Adityanath a guarantee to victory in all the seats in Gorakhpur divison.
The rising aspirations of the subaltern classes mean that they are demanding more than just food grains and they won’t mind switching sides if they have an alternative that promises them a better share in the pie of power, financial gains, and fruits of development. This phenomenon was seen in the past in neighbouring Bihar, where the EBCs moved from Lalu Prasad to Nitish Kumar and the BJP and are now restive again. Eastern UP not only shares a geographical border with Bihar but a lot of its political culture as well.
Also Read | Why BJP’s 80/80 will prove a tall order in Uttar Pradesh
Added to this is the Samajwadi Party following the BSP pattern in the 2007 Assembly election, having fielded a large number of non-Yadav candidates, such as from the Sainthwar (Kushingar) and Nishad (Gorakhpur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Mirzapur) communities. Hence, it is a seat-wise election in each Parliamentary constituency in 27 Lok Sabha seats in 17 districts of Poorvanchal (also spelt as Purvanchal)—Basti, Chandauli, Deoria, Varanasi, Mirzapur, Bhadohi (Sant Ravidas Nagar), Sant Kabirnagar, Ghazipur, Sidharthnagar, Sonbhadra, Kushinagar, Maharajganj, Jaunpur, Mau, Azamgarh, and Ballia.
In the 27 seats, where phases of the election will be held on May 25 and June 1, the SP-BSP alliance had in 2019 won seven seats (BSP-06 and SP-01) even when the hyper-nationalistic wave was in favour of the BJP after Pulwama. This time, the SP is in alliance with the Congress while the BSP is fighting alone with many of its candidates actually denting the prospects of INDIA bloc’s candidates.
The Chandauli, Ghazipur, Janupur, and Varanasi seats are in the Varanasi division while the Deoria, Kushinagar, Gorakhpur, and Mahrajaganj are in Gorakhpur division.
On May 16, Modi addressed four back-to-back rallies in Lalganj of Azamgarh, Machchlishar of Jaunpur, and in Bhadohi and Pratapgarh to give a fillip to the BJP’s campaign after his massive road show in Varanasi some days ago.
In Pratapgarh, the local don-turned-politician Raja Bhaiya recently issued a video asking his followers to feel free to vote for any party. This, despite the fact that the BJP top brass from the Centre reached out to him asking for support for the BJP candidate among reports of anger from the Rajput community because the BJP did not field enough Kshatriya candidates and among rumours that Modi-Shah were trying to undermine UP Chief Minister Adityanath and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, both prominent Thakur leaders from Uttar Pradesh.
Uncertainty in results
Mahendra Kumar Singh, Assistant Professor of Political Science in Gorakhpur University, says that “this time there is total uncertainty about which way the results will go. The voters are totally silent, although you cannot ignore the fact that the Gorakhnath Math has its own influence on voters and the BJP won most of the seats in the last Lok Sabha election with a massive margin. One thing is very clear—the contest is tight this time and the margin of victory of every candidate will be very low.”
With very few Muslim faces in the fray, polarisation at the local level is not strong, despite the Pakistan-Musalman-Mangalsutra pitch and Muslim voters too are refraining from asserting their views.
While the outcome in Modi’s constituency Varanasi, from where the Congress UP State chief Ajay Rai is the INDIA bloc candidate, is clear, the same cannot be said about other seats in the region.
How will BJP fare in other seats?
There is a strong likelihood that BJP will retain Gorakhpur due to the influence of the Gorakhanath Math and the personal connection with Adityanath, but uncertainty shrouds the seats adjoining Gorakhpur. In Gorakhpur, the BJP has fielded sitting MP Ravi Kishan, a Bhojpuri actor. The SP has fielded television actor Kajal Nishad from the Mallah caste, which has a significant population in the constituency. In the 2018 Lok Sabha byelection, SP’s Praveen Nishad won the seat defeating the BJP candidate. The seat, a BJP bastion for three decades, fell vacant after Yogi Adityanath resigned his Lok Sabha seat after becoming CM. Nishads have nearly 15 per cent votes in Gorakhpur and are otherwise loyal voters of the BJP. Praveen Nishad later joined the BJP and won the 2019 Lok Sabha election from Sant Kabir Nagar.
BJP has fielded him again from the seat, but SP has also fielded a Nishad candidate—Laxmikant alias Pappu Nishad. “Election is not one-sided this time. Akela kehu ke vote se kehu na jeet sakela (No one can win with the votes of just one caste),” says Sidhnath at Birhar village in Alipur of Sant Kabir Nagar. At Khalilabad Bazaar, Obaidullah, who runs the Unani Ayurvedic Davakhana, says “if the SP candidate gets even 25 per cent of the Nishad vote, he will be through, as Muslims and Yadavs are solidly behind him. Muslims are not voting for the BSP even though it has fielded a Muslim candidate.” Vijay Tripathi from Maghar village says “Mahual nahin samajh me aa raha hai (We can’t read the way the wind is blowing) but is hopeful that the BJP will win.
In the Brahmin-dominated Terhi Kaptanganj in Azamgarh, the sale of statues of Baba Saheb Bhimrao Ambedkar has gone up. Lal Chandra Prajapati, who makes idols and has been a BJP supporter for decades, says that Azamgarh, Mau, and Ghajipur are SP bastions but he will vote only for the BJP as there is peace now. His son Monu Prajapati, who voted saffron in 2014 and 2019, is not sure this time. “Kaante ki takkar hai, aisa chunaav pahle nahin dekha (It’s a keen contest. I have never seen such an election before),” he says.
In Kushinagar, the dominant Sainthwar or Kurmis were strong BJP supporters, but the SP has fielded Sainthwar candidate Ajay Singh against the BJP’s Vijay Dubey, thus widening the caste fault lines. Besides, the firebrand Swami Prasad Maurya contesting as an Independent has alienated Kushwaha voters from the BJP. Congress had won Kushinagar last in 2009.
A child dressed as Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the Mahila Sammelan, in Varanasi. | Photo Credit: ANI
At Padrauna, the District Vice President of the Congress, Surendra Singh Sainthwar, says the Sainthwars have for the first time joined hands with the SP. SP’s state head Jaiprakash Yadav nods his head. Padrauna’s erstwhile raja, Kunwar RPN Singh, former Union Minister, who left the Congress for the BJP, is campaigning for the Sainthwar vote, but it seems the Sainthwars are interested in seeing another MP from their caste.
The BJP, which had all the five seats of Gorakhpur, Bansgaon, Deoria, Kushinagar and Maharajganj, is currently sure of winning Gorakhpur, has a strong position in Deoria, and is fighting with its back to wall in the other three, including Maharajganj. In the last, Minister of State Finance Pankaj Chaudhary, a seven-term MP, is facing rough weather. The Congress has fielded Virendra Chaudhary in place of its 2019 candidate Supriya Srinate this time. Kishan Chaurasia, an MBA graduate, says “The excitement is missing, people are fed up with only Hindu-Muslim talk and tall promises. Youths are unemployed. Prices are skyrocketing.”
Also Read | ‘People in Bihar do not want MY, they want A to Z’: K.C. Tyagi
In the SC-reserved Bansgaon, the Congress is betting on the old BSP war horse Sadal Prasad, who was runner up from the seat in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Prasad has a strong presence among the Scheduled Castes and is hopeful of winning the seat with SP’s OBC and Muslim vote bank. Prasad, a close aide of Mayawati, was a minister in her government between 2007 and 2012. BJP’s three-term MP Kamlesh Paswan will get a tough fight.
In Ghazipur, where the writ of Mukhtar Ansari ran large, his elder brother and former MP Afzal Ansari is contesting on a Samajwadi Party ticket while his daughter Nusrat Ansari has filed her nomination as an Independent as there was some doubt whether Afzal’s candidature would sustain. To the discomfiture of the BJP, Nusrat got the Stick as symbol, which is identified with Om Prakash Rajbhar’s party, Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), which is a BJP ally. Wary of losing Rajbhar votes, the BJP approached the Election Commission to get her symbol changed. The BJP candidate is Paras Nath, a close aide of former Union Minister Manoj Sinha.
Rajbhar’s son Anil Rajbhar is NDA’s candidate from SBSP in Mau. BJP supporter Shiv Shankar Guptal says the challenge is to make BJP voters remember the stick symbol of SBSP instead of the lotus of BJP. The BSP has fielded an OBC and former MP Bal Krishna Chouhan. “Ekra pahle to Modiya ke deil rahal, e baar kuchch na kahal jaat (I voted for Modi last time. This time I can’t say anything),” says Pushpa, who runs a small tea shop in Doharighaat of Mau. She rues that the Chouhans failed to get key positions in power due to the internal divide. Another voter Harishankar says, “The fight is triangular among the chhadi (stick of SBSP), the haanthi (elephant of BSP) and the cycle (SP). We are not being able to make out who will win.”
The confusion is understandable, as most of the voters are silent while the priorities of the vocal one—the Yadavs and the upper castes—are already known. The Muslim preference is visible even in their silence. Indian elections have always baffled analysts and onlookers alike. So, the outcome is a puzzle, but one thing is very clear: the polls this time are back to the basics—jaat and jaroorat (caste and needs).
