The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Maharashtra, known locally as Mahayuti, consists of three major partners: the BJP, Shiv Sena (led by Eknath Shinde), and Ajit Pawar’s faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Despite commanding the support of 210 MLAs out of 288 in the Assembly, the Mahayuti leaders’ confidence was shaken on June 4. In the Lok Sabha election, they managed to win only 17 out of 48 seats in the State. The opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), operating with limited resources and without strong or influential leaders, secured 30 seats, and one independent candidate later pledged support to the Congress, bringing their total to 31.
This result was a warning bell for Mahayuti. Recognising that maintaining “business as usual” could lead to similar results in the Assembly election, the leaders initiated a micro-analysis of the results. This detailed examination revealed a more nuanced picture beyond the headline figures.
Also Read | Maharashtra: A decisive rejection of revolving-door politics and communal rhetoric
First, the Assembly-wise leads were very close. The MVA, despite winning 31 seats, was leading with only 154 seats. Whereas the Mahayuti was leading with 127 seats. In the Assembly of 288, where the halfway mark is 144, the lead on 154 seats was not strong. Mahayuti leaders started working on these seats. Here they found that 60 seats out of 154 were coming from the cotton, soyabean and onion belt. As prices of these agriculture produces crashed, the anger reflected in the Lok Sabha election results. So, to pacify the furious farmers, the NDA came up with a three-point strategy. In an additional State budget presented on June 28, the government decided to waive electricity bills of 44 lakh farmers. Farmers using 7.5 horsepower pump will not get the electricity bills. In Vidarbha and Marathwada, where most farmers use 5 hp pumps, this was a big announcement.
The second announcement regarding farmers came in September. Soyabean and cotton farmers were agitating against the fall in prices. So, they were given Rs.5,000 per hectareto bridge the gap between the MSP and market price. Almost 65 lakh farmers received Rs.2500 crore in this scheme. For onion farmers, export duty was removed by the Central government. This is expected to increase onion prices next season.
NDA also faced a backlash in Lok Sabha for allegedly compromising Maharashtra’s interests and favouring Gujarat. The proposed mega manufacturing projects such as a pharma hub, Foxconn-Vedanta’s semiconductor plant, was shifted out of Maharashtra. Many other industries such as automobiles were already relocating their plants from Pune to Gujarat.
Understanding the need to address this, the State government ran a mega show. They invited Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum (WEF) to Mumbai. Here, the Maharashtra government signed an MoU with WEF to make the Mumbai Metropolitan Region’s economy worth $300 billion. Schwab also promised to help Mumbai grow as a financial centre to international levels. Before this, in July, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited Mumbai. He said he wanted Mumbai to be the centre of global financial activity. All these were attempts to wipe out the anti-Maharashtra image of BJP from the minds of the State’s voters.
A hat-tip to Marathi
Marathi voters have for long also appealed for a classical status accorded to the Marathi language. The proposal was submitted to the Center in 2013. Since then, the demand has been in cold storage. But ahead of the State Assembly election, the Union government accepted the proposal and granted the language classical status. This would help BJP, especially in its campaign against Uddhav Thackeray.
Women voters opposed the Modi-led government in the Lok Sabha. To address this, the State government came up with a most ambitious ‘Ladki Bahin’ scheme. Through this, Rs.1,500 per month is being given to 1.85 crore women across the State. Maharashtra has 4.6 crore women voters: this scheme covers almost 40 per cent of them. Mahayuti leaders feel that this scheme would be the game-changer in the upcoming Assembly election. It is also seen that the opposition was confused to react on the scheme from day one. Now there is pressure on the opposition to announce something similar to women voters. The State government also urged the Centre to include 12 smaller castes into Other Backward Classes.
Also Read | Maharashtra’s Ladki Bahin scheme: Great expectations?
After Lok Sabha results, the State government faced two major instances of public outrage. One was the protest against the Badlapur school girls sexual abuse case. The second was over the falling of Shivaji’s statue in Malwan. The State government has issued a tender to build a bigger statue on the same place. Modi himself apologised for the incident.
The major challenge the BJP faced in the Lok Sabha was the Maratha reservation protest. It cost the BJP the entire region of Marathwada. The party has since adopted a two-pronged strategy. BJP leaders have gone aggressive against Manoj Jarange Patil, a leader of the Maratha reservation protest. At the same time, the party has reportedly provided all resources to the OBC protest in the State. Laxman Hake, the leader of the OBC community, protested the inclusion of the Maratha community in the OBC category. So, efforts to consolidate all non-Maratha Hindu communities are on.
The election was very close in terms of the total votes and the vote share. MVA’s vote share in the Lok Sabha election was 43.71 per cent, while Mahayuti’s was 43.55 per cent. The votes cast for the MVA was 2,50,15,819, and 2,48,12,627 for Mahayuti. The micro-managed strategies and the huge resources being used could indeed tilt the balance in favour of Mahayuti, and the coming month will show whether these calculated moves can transform their 17-seat Lok Sabha performance into a decisive Assembly victory, or if the MVA’s unexpected surge will continue.
