Haryana: Scripting a new chapter

Amidst a split in the ruling BJP-JJP coalition and a leadership change in BJP, Congress ramps up efforts to challenge the saffron party’s dominance.

Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini. Saini’s appointment is perceived as a strategic move by the BJP to counter Rahul Gandhi’s efforts to court OBC votes through his pitch for a caste census. | Photo Credit: PTI

In the run-up to the Lok Sabha election, Haryana saw a political shake-up as the ruling coalition of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) split over seat-sharing, which led to the resignation of Manohar Lal Khattar as Chief Minister on March 13. Nayab Singh Saini, who belongs to the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), was sworn in as Chief Minister the same day.

In the Assembly election held in October 2019, the BJP was the single largest party, and it cobbled together an alliance with the JJP and seven Independent MLAs to form the government. Following the split, the outgoing Deputy Chief Minister, Dushyant Chautala, who is the president and co-founder of the JJP, said: “We had first requested 2 seats [of the total 10], but the BJP wanted us to contest seats of their choice. We then offered to concede all seats in [exchange for] increasing the old-age pension to Rs.5,100 [it is currently Rs.3,000 a month]. They broke off the alliance, not accepting any offers.”

Amidst this pre-election frenzy, the Congress began its campaign to revitalise the party to challenge the BJP’s dominance in the State since 2014 when it registered a decisive victory in the Assembly election. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress failed to secure any of the 10 seats from the State. It was a big blow not only to the party, which had won nine seats in 2014, but also its prominent leader, Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

With the JJP out of the National Democratic Alliance and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)—another Jat party, led by Dushyant’s uncle Abhay Chautala—in tatters, the Congress seeks to regain its footing in the State.

Farmer protests

The political landscape in Haryana has been further complicated by the ongoing farmer protests in the country, which have drawn a large number of farmers from the State. Ramandeep Maan, a prominent farmers’ leader from Ambala, underscored that their focus was on defeating the BJP. This indicates a potential shift towards the Congress because of its perceived strength as a viable opposition force in Haryana despite the infighting and factionalism in the State Congress unit.

Maan said that by abandoning the Jats, the JJP had scripted its own downfall. “Jats in Haryana voted for Dushyant Chautala’s JJP en masse in the previous Assembly election because of their campaign against the BJP. But it then went and joined hands with the same party. The sentiment is now that the JJP cannot be trusted.”

Analysts predict a closely contested battle between the BJP and the Congress in the upcoming elections. The Congress—buoyed by recent defections such as that of Hisar MP Brijendra Singh, a prominent Jat leader, to the party—aims to capitalise on the growing anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP. The party has lent support to the farmers’ protests. The Jats are primarily involved in farming.

In a region where Jats have traditionally aligned with parties like the Congress, the INLD, or the JJP, Saini’s appointment is perceived as a strategic move by the BJP to counter Rahul Gandhi’s efforts to court OBC votes through his pitch for a caste census. Saini’s appointment follows the BJP’s strategy of appointing a Yadav Chief Minister in Madhya Pradesh with an eye on electoral gains in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which have strong Yadav leaders.

JJP leader Dushyant Chautala addressing the party’s Nav Sankalp Rally in Hisar on March 13. | Photo Credit: By Special Arrangement

Saini’s OBC identity carries weight, especially considering that the community accounts for around 30 per cent of the population in the State. Jats constitute nearly 25 per cent of the population.

The appointment of Khattar, a Punjabi Khatri, in 2014 as Chief Minister, in a place dominated by the Jat community, was a bold move by the BJP. But in the 2019 election, the party had to depend on the JJP to form a government.

Concerns over law and order

Khattar has on multiple occasions faced criticism regarding law and order issues in Haryana. One notable event was the Jat agitation for reservation in 2016, which erupted into widespread violence and unrest across the State.

The communal violence in Nuh in 2023 added to Khattar’s woes. Critics highlighted concerns about communal harmony and the government’s inability to maintain peace and order in sensitive areas. According to informed sources, internal reports of the BJP had pointed to the need for a change of guard in the State to shore up the party’s fortunes. It is now hopeful that the JJP, which is planning to contest from all 10 seats, could cause a split in the Jat votes. If the Jat votes get divided among the Congress, the INLD, and the JJP, the BJP stands to gain with its OBC outreach.

Since 2014, the BJP has tried to consolidate non-Jat OBC voters, pitching it as an effective measure against the dominance of Jat politics in the State. Satish Tyagi, a senior journalist from Rohtak, said that the Jat and non-Jat divide was centuries old. “But in the last decade the BJP has used this efficiently. Non-Jats were fed up with Jat dominance and felt marginalised in every field. The BJP used the 2016 Jat riots to consolidate its position along this line.” Tyagi anticipates a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress in the Lok Sabha election.

Chandvir Hooda, media incharge of the Congress in the State, attributed the BJP’s change in leadership to a surge in anti-incumbency sentiment.

With Khattar’s exit, the BJP-JJP split, and a new OBC Chief Minister on the block, it is truly a whirlwind in the State. Can the BJP repeat its 2019 performance? Given the anti-incumbency sentiment and with the Jat community’s allegiance shifting towards the Congress, the stage is set for a close contest.