How did the BJP pull off an unexpected win in Haryana?

Despite perceived anti-incumbency, the BJP was able to retain support through strategic social engineering and exploit the Congress’ infighting.

Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini (left) being greeted with a flower bouquet by BJP leader and Kurukshetra MP Naveen Jindal after winning the Assembly election from Ladwa constituency, on October 8. | Photo Credit: PTI

Defying all exit polls as well as election pundits, the BJP wrested Haryana for the third consecutive time—and entirely on its own. It secured a simple majority, winning 48 seats in the 90-member Assembly.

The outcome shows that the election was largely a bipolar one, with both national parties securing 79.03 per cent of the vote share between themselves and around 11.64 per cent going to independent candidates. The regional parties were more or less sidelined in this election.

The Congress, which was expected to win due to a range of reasons, including a perceived anti-incumbency, secured 37 seats, 9 less than the simple majority required to form the government. If it was some solace, the party secured six more seats than its 2019 tally and bettered its vote share by 12 percentage points.

Politically, the results have been a major setback to former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, under whose leadership the election was fought. The reasons why the Congress could not make a mark are manifold. Among them are the Congress’ failure to assess the extent of anti-incumbency, the infighting in the party, the high command’s interference in candidate selection that possibly led to poor picks, the party’s obduracy to go it alone sans alliances, and just plain hubris. It is likely that the party was overconfident of a victory after it won 5 of the State’s 10 seats in the Lok Sabha election. At the time, it was in an alliance with the AAP and the Left. In the Assembly polls, however, it preferred to stand on its own, save for a seat-sharing arrangement with the CPI(M) for the Bhiwani seat.

Close contest between national parties

The contest between the two national parties was close, with the BJP having secured 39.94 per cent of the vote share and the Congress 39.09 per cent. In Ucchana Kalan where the BJP candidate narrowly defeated former Hisar MP Brajendra Singh, the victory margin was as small as 32 votes. The highest margin, of over 98,000 votes, was secured by the Congress’ Mamman Khan who won the Ferozepur Jhirka seat with a total of 1,30,497 votes. Thirteen women were elected this time: five from the BJP, seven from the Congress and one Independent.

The vote share of both parties suggests that held on to their support base and also added a bit more, edging out the regional parties. The BJP bettered its 2019 vote share by 2.94 per cent. Both parties improved their vote shares considerably at the expense of regional parties such as the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and even the Aam Aadmi Party.

Congress, BJP gain at JJP’s expense

The JJP, as Frontline had written earlier, was reduced to a cipher, failing to win even a single seat. Its alliance with the Aazad Samaj Party did not yield any dividends. Its vote share fell to less than 1 per cent from 14.84 per cent in 2019, when it had won 10 seats and formed the government along with the BJP. The gains of the Congress and partly of the BJP seem to have come entirely at the expense of the JJP. Dushyant Chautala, the JJP chief, came a poor fifth in Ucchana Kalan.

The INLD too was confined to two seats in Sirsa but in contrast to its breakaway party, the JJP, it bettered its vote share. The INLD, which had an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), secured 5.96 per cent of the vote share, denting the Jat-Dalit vote base to an extent that otherwise would have benefitted the Congress. Abhay Chautala, the INLD national general secretary, lost the Ellenabad seat to the Congress’ Bharat Beniwal by over 14,000 votes. Chautala had been winning this seat from 2010 onwards.

Congress candidate Vinesh Phogat greets supporters during her victory celebration after winning from Julana constituency in the Haryana Assembly election, in Jind district on October 8. | Photo Credit: Shahbaz Khan/PTI

On the whole, the prominent winners include the outgoing Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Olympian Vinesh Phogat, Aditya Surjewala, Shruti Choudhry, Jindal Group chairperson Savitri Jindal, Arjun Chautala, and outgoing Home Minister Anil Vij. Vij retained the Ambala Cantt seat for the fourth time defeating his nearest rival Chitra Sarwara, a Congress rebel who contested as an Independent, by 7,277 votes. It is possible that had there been no rebel candidate, the results would have swung in favour of the Congress. The official Congress candidate, who got slightly over 14,000 votes, forfeited his security deposit.

A total of 17 sitting Congress candidates lost in the election. Prominent among those who lost across parties include Abhay Chautala, Dushyant Chautala, Bhavya Bishnoi, outgoing Haryana Speaker Gian Chand Gupta, Captain Abhimanyu, and O.P. Dhankar. Five outgoing Ministers lost in this election, including prominent Jat leaders in the BJP such as Captain Abhimanyu and O.P. Dhankar.

Hooda has much to answer for

The outcome in Haryana was a surprise even for the BJP. It could not have bargained for a better result. As for the Congress, its State leadership under Hooda has a lot to answer for. Sources said that some five candidates who were picks of the Congress high command lost. The expected Jat-Dalit consolidation also did not take place to the desired extent in favour of the Congress as this vote got diversified among other parties, especially the INLD-BSP which together secured a vote share of 6.96 per cent.

It also cannot be said that the BJP got most of the non-Jat vote in the State. It has been argued that some of its prominent Jat candidates like O.P. Dhankar or Captain Abhimanyu would not have lost had they received the full backing of the non-Jat votes in their respective constituencies.

Likewise, the defeat of almost all the sitting Ministers barring Chief Minister Saini needs explanation. They would have won if all it took was smart social engineering in the nature of a non-Jat OBC consolidation behind the BJP. Similarly, it cannot be said that the Congress secured only the votes of the Jats or that the Dalits moved away from the party because Ambala MP Kumari Selja was sidelined. Of the 17 reserved constituencies, the Congress won in 9 and the BJP in 8.

In Ambala, Selja’s own Lok Sabha constituency, the Congress won all the segments barring the Ambala Cantt seat. It lost this seat only because of a rebel Congress candidate. But this candidate’s father, who was the official Congress candidate from Ambala city, won.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the INDIA bloc as a whole had secured 47.61 per cent of the vote share, with the Congress alone getting 43.67 per cent. In contrast, the BJP secured 46.11 per cent on its own, without any alliance. The Congress was perhaps optimistic because it had secured a lead in 46 Assembly segments compared to the BJP’s 44. But then, overconfidence always has a price.