The elections held in five States produced a mixed verdict, with the BJP winning in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, and the Congress defeating the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana. The Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) defeated the Mizo National Front (MNF) in Mizoram. Although there were some possibilities of the Congress losing the elections in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the party’s defeat in Chhattisgarh came as a big surprise.
The results send out a few important messages. First and foremost is that the Modi magic is still working. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign played an important role in the BJP’s victory in the three States it won. The results also reinforce the Congress’ inability to take on the BJP in the Hindi heartland States in a direct contest. However, the party still has a presence in the southern States. The results also indicate that the Congress failed to make the caste census an issue that resonates with common voters.
The results indicate the increasing importance of women voters in Indian elections. The Prime Minister’s repeated references to that in his address to party workers after the BJP’s victory is testimony to that. The verdict also points to the increasing importance of welfare schemes in the party’s strategy of voter mobilisation. But the defeat of the BRS in Telangana serves as a warning that schemes alone cannot win an election but can only be icing on the cake; the party needs to do other things to win the trust of the voters.
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The Modi factor
A careful analysis of the results indicates that there was no anti-Congress wave, rather it was a pro-BJP wave. That much is clear from the vote share of the Congress and the BJP in the three States in which the Congress lost to the BJP.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel with farm workers at a paddy field in Chhattisgarh ahead of the elections. | Photo Credit: PTI
The Congress polled at least 40 per cent of the votes in all these States, pointing to a marginal increase in support rather than a decline compared with the 2018 Assembly elections. Despite this increase, the Congress lost to the BJP because the BJP managed to increase its vote share at the cost of regional parties and independents, displaying an increased support for the BJP in 2023 compared with the previous Assembly election.
In Chhattisgarh, although the Congress retained its overall support, the BJP picked up votes in the north and south of the State for a decisive lead over the Congress. The regional analysis of the verdict in Madhya Pradesh suggests that the Congress managed to perform well in three regions, Chambal, Mahakoushal, and Malwa Nimar, which account for a total of 100 seats. But the Congress trailed behind the BJP by 14 per cent votes in the Malwa North and Madhya Bharat regions, which account for 74 seats. Similarly, it trailed behind the BJP by 10 per cent votes in Bundelkhand and Vindhya Pradesh; the two regions account for 56 Assembly seats.
In Rajasthan, which witnessed a close contest, the Congress trailed behind the BJP by 4-5 per cent of the votes in the south Rajasthan and Haroti regions, and it also trailed behind the BJP by a narrower margin in the western and central regions, where the regional parties and independents polled 19 per cent and 13 per cent respectively. These two regions combined account for 79 Assembly seats.
In Telangana, the Congress took a decisive lead over the BRS by 6 per cent in the north and by 7 per cent in the south; the two regions account for 94 seats in the 119-member House. In the Hyderabad region, which accounts for 25 seats, the BJP and the Congress won one seat each and the All India Majli-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen won seven. The division of votes between various contenders helped the BRS win 16 seats in this region.
After the BJP’s defeat in Himachal Pradesh in the 2022 Assembly election and in Karnataka earlier this year, the opposition tried to build a narrative that the Modi magic was declining and that his ability to pull votes for the BJP had declined significantly. But the BJP’s resounding victory in the latest round of Assembly elections without projecting anyone as a chief ministerial candidate in any State, with Modi as the party’s face, clearly indicates that the voters’ choice of the BJP as the ruling party was largely influenced by the Modi factor. Data from the Lokniti-CSDS post-election survey indicate that nearly 19 per cent of BJP voters in Madhya Pradesh voted in the name of Modi, while in Rajasthan it was 24 per cent.
High levels of satisfaction with the Central government also tilted the votes in favour of the BJP. In Madhya Pradesh, 67 per cent of the voters were satisfied with the Central government; in Rajasthan the figure was 79 per cent, and in Chhattisgarh 80 per cent. Many other leaders of the BJP, including its State leaders, campaigned aggressively, but the BJP’s campaign was so centred on Modi that the BJP even came up with the slogan “Madhya Pradesh ke man me Modi hai, Modi ke man me Madhya Pradesh hai” (Modi in Madhya Pradesh’s mind, Madhya Pradesh in Modi’s mind).
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Congress’ inability to mobilise OBC votes
The victory of the Congress in the 2018 Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh had raised the party’s hopes of putting up a challenge to the BJP in 2019, but the Lok Sabha election results in 2019 shattered those expectations. The Congress has kept losing election after election since then. But its recent victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka raised the hopes of a Congress revival even in the Hindi heartland as it was the ruling party in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and had accused the BJP of stealing its government in Madhya Pradesh.
Another factor indicating a shift from the Congress was people’s unhappiness and concern about rising prices and increasing unemployment. The Lokniti-CSDS post-election survey in all the States that went to the polls in the last couple of years clearly indicates that between 70 and 80 per cent of the voters in different States were worried about increasing prices and about 70 per cent were concerned about increasing unemployment.
In Chhattisgarh, 76 per cent believed that prices had increased; in Madhya Pradesh the figure was 80 per cent, while in Rajasthan it was 72 per cent.
Outgoing Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot with other leaders in Jaipur on November 23. People appeared to have more faith in the promises made by Prime Minister Modi in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan than in the benefits they actually got through schemes. | Photo Credit: PTI
As many as 40 per cent in Rajasthan, 44 per cent in Madhya Pradesh, and 40 per cent in Chhattisgarh believed that unemployment had increased. Despite this, the BJP returned to power in most States except a few (Himachal and Karnataka being the latest).
But one cannot deny the fact that unemployment and prices have been rising; the Congress, it was thought, would be able to make this an issue as well as use the issue of caste census in these elections. One expected voters to show their concern on these issues while casting their vote. That did not happen. The defeat in the three Hindi heartland States means the Congress has been wiped out of north India.
The Lokniti-CSDS post-election survey indicates that while the Congress may have lost the election in these States, it has managed to make inroads into Dalit and Adivasi areas except in Chhattisgarh, where the Adivasi votes tilted in favour of the BJP. In all three States, Dalits voted more in favour of the Congress than the BJP. Adivasi voters in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh also voted for the Congress in big numbers.
What hurt the Congress was its inability to mobilise OBC voters despite Rahul Gandhi championing the cause for an OBC census. The findings suggest that the OBCs did not vote for the Congress in any of the three States. The BJP’s lead over the Congress among OBC voters was 9 per cent in Chhattisgarh, 12 per cent in Madhya Pradesh, and 5 per cent in Rajasthan.
Women voters
With Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan facing 18 years of anti-incumbency, there were conflicting predictions about the electoral outcome in Madhya Pradesh. Different meanings were attached to the BJP fielding 10 MPs, including Ministers, from various Assembly constituencies in Madhya Pradesh; one was that it was done to beat the anti-incumbency sentiment. The Lokniti-CSDS survey in late October showed that there was no anti-incumbency as 63 per cent of the voters liked the work done by the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government, and his popularity rating was 39 per cent against Kamal Nath’s 32 per cent. The survey also indicated that Chouhan remained popular despite being sidelined during the early days of campaigning. While various factors are attributed to Chouhan’s popularity, the Ladli Behna scheme is largely responsible for his massive popularity among women voters.
Women voters have contributed to the BJP’s victory in all three States. Women’s turnout was 74 per cent in Rajasthan, 76 per cent in Madhya Pradesh, 78 per cent in Chhattisgarh, and 72 per cent in Telangana. Women not only came out in large numbers, they also voted for the BJP in slightly larger numbers than men.
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP got 5 per cent more votes from women voters than the Congress, while in Madhya Pradesh the figure was 4 per cent. In Rajasthan, the BJP led by 4 per cent over the Congress among women voters.
Did welfare schemes pay?
The fourth important point that emerges from the verdict is that welfare schemes play a more important role now than in the past, but schemes alone cannot win elections. Schemes plus “other” factors such as popularity, leadership, governance, and an overall positive perception are needed to win elections.
The BJP’s big win in Madhya Pradesh is largely credited to the Ladli Behna Scheme, but the Congress too had equally popular schemes in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, as did the BRS in Telangana, but they were defeated. The KCR government’s Rythu Bandhu scheme, the Ashok Gehlot government’s Chiranjeevi Health Insurance Scheme, Bhupesh Baghel’s Urban Guarantee and Half Electricity Bill schemes were popular in their States but not enough to win elections.
On K. Chandrasekhar Rao’s birthday, in Hyderabad in February 2022. Voters in Telangana had more faith in what the Congress promised than in the benefits they were receiving from the BRS government’s schemes. | Photo Credit: NAGARA GOPAL
Survey findings indicate that among the beneficiaries of Baghel’s Half Electricity Bill scheme, 44 per cent voted for the Congress, while 43 per cent voted for the BJP. Among the beneficiaries of the Ladli Behna Scheme, 51 per cent voted for the BJP, while 39 per cent voted for the Congress. In Rajasthan, among the beneficiaries of the Chiranjeevi Health Insurance scheme, 43 per cent voted for the Congress and 39 per cent for the BJP. Among the beneficiaries of the Rythu Bandhu scheme in Telangana, 43 per cent voted for the BRS while 45 per cent voted for the Congress.
People appeared to have more faith in the promises made by Prime Minister Modi in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan than in the benefits they actually got through the schemes. Similarly, voters in Telangana had more faith in what the Congress promised than in the benefits they were receiving from the BRS government’s schemes. Voters in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh seemed to show more faith in the BJP’s promise than in the Congress government’s delivery, which is why Modi now often refers to “Modi ki guarantee matlab guarantee ki guarantee”.
While these defeats will certainly have a demoralising impact on the parties in the INDIA bloc, especially the Congress, they can still put up a challenge against the BJP in 2024 if they work out a seat-sharing arrangement. This seems an uphill task given the differences between the parties in the alliance. The Congress debacle does not give any positive vibes to voters about it being able to lead the INDIA alliance. Even if it manages to work out a seat-sharing arrangement, it may not be enough to challenge the BJP in 2024; the alliance needs to think of and go to the people with a positive agenda. Merely an aggressive negative campaign against the BJP and against Modi can only create an illusion of opposition. This has severe limitations and is not enough to beat the formidable BJP.
Sanjay Kumar is a professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). The views expressed are personal.
