How Congress pulled off a morale-booster victory in Telangana

The historic win against the mighty BRS can alleviate some of the pain the party has endured from its decisive losses in three northern States.

Congress leader Sonia Gandhi with A. Revanth Reddy, Telangana State party chief, at his swearing-in as Chief Minister in Hyderabad on December 7. | Photo Credit: ANI

The Congress managed to stun the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana by obtaining a simple majority in the election to the 119-member Assembly held in November, ruining the hat-trick hopes of Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao, popularly known as KCR.

The Congress won 64 seats, while the BRS bagged 39 and the BJP eight. The All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) retained all its seven seats in the Hyderabad Old City region, while the Congress’ coalition partner Communist Party of India won one seat.

On December 7, Telangana Congress chief Anumula Revanth Reddy was sworn in as the new Chief Minister and Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka as the Deputy Chief Minister. The first Cabinet meeting resolved to implement two of the six election guarantees on December 9: free travel for women in State transport buses and medical assistance of up to Rs.10 lakh for eligible families.

The Congress’ aggressive campaign boosted anti-BRS sentiment in several pockets. The party made significant gains in rural areas, while the BRS retained most of the seats in the Greater Hyderabad region. This is the highest tally for the Congress in Telangana since 1983, when the region was part of undivided Andhra Pradesh.

The Congress’ vote share increased by 11 per cent, much of which seems to have come from the BRS vote base. The Congress also reportedly enjoyed the outside support of the Telugu Desam Party cadre in several constituencies.

Aggressive campaign

Revanth Reddy’s aggressive campaign against the KCR family and the BRS appears to have been the main reason for the win. With the Congress cadre regaining confidence after the Karnataka election results, Revanth Reddy and Vikramarka’s relentless campaigns sustained the momentum for the Congress. The party had won the perception battle much earlier, when leaders from the BRS and the BJP began defecting to the Congress from May.

The Congress accurately assessed the discontent, anti-incumbency feeling, and the perception of increased corruption. Data from the Lokniti-CSDS survey showed that even though people had a favourable opinion of the BRS’ governance, a significant 46 per cent of those polled believed that corruption had increased in the State. What aided the campaign was the absence of the KCR family from the public realm until a few months before the election, which distanced them from the voters and created discontent among supporters. According to the Lokniti-CSDS survey data, the Congress’ outreach among youngsters paid off. Nearly 41 per cent of those under 25 voted for it, while the BRS got 33 per cent of their votes, the data showed.

Passengers in Sangareddy district cheer free bus travel for women, one of the Congress’ six election promises, which was launched in the State on December 9. | Photo Credit: MOHD ARIF

Revanth Reddy’s involvement in the cash-for-vote scam of 2015 was brought up by the BRS a few times during its campaign, but it did not dent the Congress’ prospects. Another significant factor in the Congress victory was keeping infighting to a minimum.

While both the Congress and the BRS campaigned on the welfare plank, the former seems to have given voters the confidence that old schemes will continue in addition to six new guarantees, said Prof. Afroz Alam, head of the Political Science Department at Maulana Azad National Urdu University, Hyderabad.

Within days of being elected, the Congress rushed to portray itself as more democratic and accessible. It tore down the barricades outside the Chief Minister’s Camp Office (Pragathi Bhavan, rechristened as Jyotirao Phule Praja Bhavan), giving pedestrians a safer road. Through its “Praja Darbar”, it has also opened up its office to the public.

Finance Minister D. Sridhar Babu said the party will release a white paper on the State’s finances, including expenditure between 2014 and 2023. The Congress contested the election as a nationally relevant party with a strong regional presence, which observers said could help its prospects in the general election next year.

Highlights

• The Congress secured a simple majority with 64 seats, ending Chief Minister KCR’s quest for a third term. BRS won 39 seats, BJP 8, and AIMIM retained its 7 seats.
• Congress attributed its victory to Revanth Reddy’s campaign against KCR, rural gains, and increased vote share with support from TDP cadre.
• BRS faced internal issues, welfare model shortcomings, and lost despite a respectable 37.35 per cent vote share. BJP emerged a distant third but significantly improved its performance, signalling potential future growth.

BRS’ mistakes

Harathi Vageeshan, a political science professor at Hyderabad’s NALSAR University of Law, said there were structural, tactical, and governance-related mistakes behind the BRS’ loss. He added that KCR’s inability to include others in decision-making was one of the primary structural issues with his leadership style.

In a case of too little too late, KCR opened up his farmhouse residence in Erravelli village to the public after the electoral defeat, which probably was an attempt to show that KCR still enjoys much support and also to counter the criticism of inaccessible leadership.

BRS leader and former Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao greets supporters at his residence in Siddipet district on December 6. | Photo Credit: PTI

In hindsight, analysts believe that the BRS had overestimated its grip on the State, which was especially evident in KCR’s loss in Kamareddy constituency. He retained the Gajwel seat, though. And most members of his family and extended family won with significant majorities. However, KCR’s 95-plus rallies could not convince voters to give him a third term. Neither did the BRS’ assurances of addressing the failures of its 10-year rule.

Vageeshan said that another key reason behind the BRS loss was its welfare model, which excluded several beneficiary groups who deserved assistance. Further, allegations of corruption and favouritism in the allotment of social housing flats and in the selection of beneficiaries for financial support schemes such as Dalit Bandhu and BC Bandhu proved crucial in consolidating support for the Congress. The BRS also paid the price for ignoring those aged between 18 and 40 in its policies and welfare measures, said Vageeshan.

Several tactical mistakes in recent months cost the BRS dear. For instance, KCR refused to oust non-performing MLAs. Many pundits believed that this reflected a confident party. However, most of these MLAs lost, while eight of the 10-odd new candidates won. The party was unable to retain even half of the 88 seats it won in 2018.

Another crucial mistake was not being able to keep a lid both on the discontent among its leaders and the spats with the top leadership. The biggest beneficiary of this was the Congress. Over 10 leaders who defected to the Congress won, playing a vital role in the Congress’ victory. They include Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy, who won from Palair, and Jupally Krishna Rao, who won from Kollapur. They were suspended by the BRS in April and wooed by both the BJP and the Congress.

Tummala Nageswara Rao is another big name who won (from Khammam). All three have found a spot in the Congress Cabinet. Some members who resigned from the BRS and the BJP as recently as October also won.

The mercurial Mynampally Hanumantha Rao was the only prominent defector to lose. Rao and his son Mynampally Rohith joined the Congress after the BRS refused to give Rohith the ticket. Rohith won from Medak, but Rao lost to Marri Rajashekar Reddy of the BRS by nearly 50,000 votes. The Congress could have won Bhadrachalam if it had clinched a deal with the CPI(M); as it is, it lost to the BRS by 5,719 votes while the CPI(M) got 5,860 votes.

However, the BRS has by no means been routed, and has a respectable vote share of 37.35 per cent, not far behind the Congress’ 39.40 per cent. Political observers maintained that there was no wave in favour of the Congress. Prof. Afroz Alam said if there been a wave, the party would have won 75-80 seats and a 7-8 per cent vote share lead. The general consensus is that the Congress has a lot of work to do if it wants to replicate this in 2024.

Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy of the BJP, who defeated both former Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao and the new Chief Minister Revanth Reddy to win the Kamareddy Assembly seat on December 3. | Photo Credit: ANI

BJP’s strides

As for the BJP, the party remained a distant third but made massive strides by posting a huge jump in tally from one seat in 2018 to eight and nearly doubling its vote share to 13.9 per cent from 6.98 per cent in 2018. Also, the party stood second in 18 seats, an indication of the inroads it has made into the State. Its star performer was Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy, who delivered a big jolt to both the Congress and the BRS by defeating Revanth Reddy and KCR in Kamareddy.

In 2014 and 2018, the BJP’s fortunes were limited to Hyderabad and Rangareddy regions. By the 2019 Lok Sabha election, it had expanded its presence and this year most of its wins came from the northern districts.

With increased representation in the Assembly, the BJP could emerge as a more significant force in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, said Prof. Afroz Alam. He also pointed out that it was the BRS that gave the BJP a tough fight (in six of the eight constituencies that the BJP won), not the Congress. In seats with triangular fights, the Congress did not fare well against the BJP.

The right-wing poster boy T. Raja Singh retained his Goshamahal seat in Hyderabad, but MP and former State party chief Bandi Sanjay and Dharmapuri Aravind, also an MP, lost despite several last-ditch efforts. The three had led the most Hindutva-oriented campaigns.

After his defeat, Sanjay blamed the Muslims of Karimnagar, where he lost to the BRS candidate by a narrow margin of 3,163 votes. He implored people to think about the implications for “Hindu Dharma” and dog-whistled about how “they” (Muslims) lacked integrity and united against him. Sanjay is expected to return as the BJP’s candidate for the Karimnagar Lok Sabha seat, which he won in 2019. There is speculation that the BJP might attempt a course correction and bring back Sanjay as the State chief, as his removal had been criticised by party cadre and loyalists.

Eatala Rajender, the former BRS leader who continues to prove he is a misfit in the BJP, lost an election for the first time in his political career of over 20 years. He was heading the BJP’s election campaign in the State.

The BJP contested 111 seats and set aside the rest for its coalition partner, the JanaSena Party, which failed to make a mark. The consolidation of Hindu votes in constituencies with a high Muslim voter base seems to have been one of the crucial factors at play, signalling a minor victory for the BJP’s attempts at social engineering.

However, observers also credited the BJP leaders’ accessibility in their constituencies and their focus on hyper-local issues for the party’s vastly improved performance.

Chief Minister Revanth Reddy interacts with the general public during the “Praja Darbar”, at Jyotiba Phule Praja Bhavan in Hyderabad on December 8. | Photo Credit: Mohammed Aleemuddin/ANI

Assembly composition

The caste and religious composition of the Assembly registered little change despite the shift of power from a regional party to a national party. In the run-up to the election, all parties made tall promises about increased Backward Class representation, but the over-representation of the dominant caste elites continues.

There are fewer than 20 BC MLAs in the Assembly in a State where BCs reportedly constitute over 50 per cent of the population. Members of the Reddy community won 43 seats in 2023, up from 40 in 2018 and 42 in 2014; they reportedly account for less than 5 per cent of the population. The Velama representation has increased to 13 MLAs from 10 in 2018 and 2014, and they reportedly account for 1-2 per cent of the population.

The representation of Muslims, who comprise 12.6 per cent of the population, is confined to single digits, all belonging to the AIMIM. None of the Muslim candidates of the Congress or the BRS won. Muslim supporters of the Congress expect the party to nominate a couple of Muslim leaders as MLCs and have at least one Muslim leader in the Cabinet.

Analysts believe the implications of the 2023 Assembly election results are far-reaching and have placed the State at a crucial juncture. The Congress does not have a comfortable enough majority to be fully at ease. Even as the BRS remains the primary opposition, the BJP is unlikely to cede space as the dissenting voice. The AIMIM, which has seven seats, has not shifted allegiance either. With nearly 45 per cent of the MLAs in the opposition, the Congress’ every move will be closely watched, unlike in the 2014 and 2018 Telangana Assemblies, where a credible opposition was missing for the most part.

Further, the Congress’ gains usually come at the cost of weakening regional parties while the vote share of the BJP remains intact, said Prof. Afroz Alam. He added that the Congress has to follow up on its strategic win by fulfilling its promises, and by keeping regional sentiments alive and intact.