Is BJP losing its grip on Haryana?

Challenges mount for the ruling party in Haryana as three MLAs withdraw support.

Independent MLAs Sombir Sangwan (Dadri), Randhir Singh Gollen (Pundri), and Dharam Pal Gonder (Nilokheri) addressing the media on extending support to the Congress, in Chandigarh on May 7. | Photo Credit: ANI

In a setback to the ruling BJP in Haryana amid the Lok Sabha election, three Independent MLAs announced on May 7 that they had withdrawn their support to the Nayab Singh Saini government in the State. This development comes within two months of Saini assuming office as Chief Minister.

In the 90-member House, the BJP has 39 seats and the Congress 30 seats. The Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) holds 10 seats, the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) one, and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) one; Independents hold seven seats.

The BJP’s tally of 41 MLAs in the 90-member House was reduced to 39 following the resignation of the MLAs from Karnal and Rania in March. Former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, who represented Karnal, resigned as MLAsoon after he was nominated to contest the Parliamentary election from there. Power Minister Ranjit Singh Chautala, son of former Deputy Prime Minister Devi Lal, too resigned from the Assembly after joining the BJP. An Independent legislator, he has been fielded by the BJP from Hisar in the Lok Sabha election. Six out of seven Independent MLAs had supported the BJP. With three of them—Sombir Sangwan (Charkhi Dadri), Randhir Golan (Pundri), and Dharam Pal Gonder (Nilokheri)—withdrawing support, the BJP has the backing of three Independents and one HLP MLA, that is, 43 MLAs in an 88-member House.

Golan attributed unemployment and inflation as key factors influencing his decision. “For the last four and a half years, we have extended support to the BJP. Today unemployment and inflation are at their peak. Looking at this, we have withdrawn our support,” he said.

Highlighting his concerns for farmers, Gonder said, “At the time when they needed our support to form the government they called us again and again. We had decided that until Manohar Lal Khattar was in power, we would support. We are sad that he is no more in power. In the interest of the farmers, we withdraw our support for the government.”

BJP national president J.P. Nadda chairs the Haryana BJP core meeting at the party office in Panchkula on May 10. | Photo Credit: ANI

According to BJP insiders, the BJP’s effort to consolidate the non-Jat OBC vote to make up for the absence of Jat support did not work effectively in the 2019 Assembly election, which is why Saini, an OBC, was made Chief Minister just before the Lok Sabha election.

On May 9, JJP leader Dushyant Chautala urged Governor Bandaru Dattatreya to conduct a floor test in the Assembly, seeking to determine the majority of the government.

Chautala cited the recent withdrawals of support to the government by Independent MLAs as a reason for questioning its majority. Accusing the BJP of engaging in horse trading, Chautala emphasised the need for stability and democratic norms in the State. In his letter to the Governor, Chautala said, “Given these developments and the clear stance of my party, JJP, which does not extend its support to the present government and is open to backing any other political party for government formation, it is evident that the incumbent government no longer commands a majority in the Legislative Assembly.”

On May 7, addressing a press conference,Chautala said that his party would vote against the Saini government in case Leader of Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda moves a no-confidence motion. He emphasised that it was up to the Congress to decide whether it would take steps to topple the BJP government. Hooda said the State government had lost the moral right to be in power and President’s Rule should be imposed.

The BJP, buoyed by its sweeping victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, is now facing a formidable challenge to maintain its dominance against a resurgent Congress and other regional players. Amid this uncertainty, the Lok Sabha election for the 10 seats in the State will be held in a single phase on May 25.

BJP’s confidence amidst challenges

The BJP leadership in the State remains optimistic about the party’s prospects. Khattar, addressing party leaders, emphasised the BJP’s organisational strength and expressed confidence about securing victory on the basis of its governance track record and loyal support base.

Speaking to ANI in Karnal, he said, “Hundreds of people have come here in support. In this area, the BJP has won the past three elections. This time, we will register a win with more votes than last time. We will win all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana.”

Earlier, Khattar took a jibe at the Congress and criticised it for not doing any work. “This is the election of the largest panchayat in the nation. The Congress has not done any work. That’s why they [the people] regret it. They have lost hope. You have to make us win all the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana,” he said while addressing a roadshow in Karnal.

Arvind Saini, media in-charge of Haryana BJP, said the party was banking on the popularity of the Prime Minister and the development work done by the State government in the last five years. As the political climate intensifies and the election date approaches, PM Modi, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur, and BJP president J.P. Nadda are gearing up for a decisive push in the BJP’s campaign in Haryana.

Jannayak Janta Party chief Dushyant Chautala campaigning for the party’s Gurugram candidate Rahul Yadav Fazilpuria, in Gurugram on May 2. | Photo Credit: ANI

Modi is expected to hold a rally in Rohtak following the conclusion of the fifth phase of polling, aiming to sway voters in nearby constituencies such as Hisar, Sirsa, Ambala, and Kurukshetra, where the BJP is facing formidable challenges.

While the BJP emphasises national issues and Modi’s leadership, the Congress is focussing on local issues, signifying a strategic divergence in voter engagement. Former Congress Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s emphasis is on the party’s resurgence in the State.

Challenges to BJP’s dominance

The BJP’s landslide victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha election marked a historic achievement, securing all 10 seats in the State with an unprecedented vote share. However, the current electoral battleground presents multifaceted challenges, particularly in constituencies such as Kurukshetra, traditionally a BJP stronghold. The billionaire industrialist Naveen Jindal of the BJP, who left the Congress weeks before the election, will face Abhay Chautala of the INLD and the AAP’s Sushil Gupta in a triangular contest from here.

This is the first time the BJP has not fielded an OBC candidate from here, reflecting its efforts to broaden its appeal across diverse voter demographics. While Abhay Chautala is a Jat leader, both Jindal and Gupta are from the Baniya community (Jindal is an Agrawal). Saini had won the seat in 2019.

Despite the BJP getting a heavy vote share in the last two general elections, anti-incumbency remains strong in Kurukshetra. The party may face difficulty in wooing Jat voters, who do not seem to trust it anymore. Farmers, most of whom are Jats, are miffed with the BJP, as they believe that it has not met their demands.

The BJP faces several challenges such as the farmers’ protest and the Jat agitation in Haryana. Farmers have been agitating over their unmet demands for quite some time, and their anger has mostly been directed at the BJP, which is in power both at the Centre and in Haryana.

Congress leader and former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda with Raj Babbar, who is contesting from Gurugram, on May 9. | Photo Credit: PTI

The Kurukshetra seat symbolises the intense competition gripping Haryana. Beyond Kurukshetra, constituencies like Ambala, Gurugram, and Faridabad are witnessing fierce contests between the BJP and the Congress. In Ambala, the BJP has nominated Banto Devi Kataria, the wife of the late MP Ratan Lal Kataria. The Congress has fielded Varun Chaudhary, son of former Cabinet Minister Phool Chand Mulana and the MLA from Mulana, one of the nine Assembly segments of Ambala Lok Sabha seat. In 2019, Kataria won the seat with 7,46,508 votes and a 57.06 per cent vote share. The Congress’ Kumari Selja secured only 30.89 per cent vote share and 404,163 votes. This time, Varun Chaudhary is poised to give a tough competition to the BJP here.

The actor-politician Raj Babbar is set to contest the Gurgaon seat on the Congress ticket, marking a tough electoral battle against incumbent MP Rao Inderjit Singh of the BJP. Babbar has a Punjabi background, and Rao Inderjit Singh represents the dominant Yadav community in the region. Babbar’s nomination did not go down well with Capt. Ajay Yadav All India Congress Committee OBC Cell chairman and six-time MLA. He took to social media site X to claim “a deep-rooted conspiracy of a few Congress Haryana State leaders to crush the senior leaders”. Ajay Yadav had lost to Rao Inderjit Singh by over three lakh votes in 2019. Barring Sirsa, where the Congress has fielded Kumari Selja, most of the candidates are seen as Hooda loyalists.

Congress’ resurgence strategy

For the Congress, leveraging local grievances against the BJP’s formidable national narrative is key to resurgence. Satish Tyagi, political analyst in Haryana, said that the Congress could emerge victorious only by capitalising on farmer discontent, the high unemployment rate, and the anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP’s 10-year rule in the State and at the Centre.

As Haryana navigates this political churn, the road ahead for the BJP’s electoral dominance is lined with challenges. Meanwhile, the Congress aims to channel discontent into electoral gains that will also extend to the State Assembly election later this year.