Untested waters

Karnataka gets ready on a low-key note for multi-cornered contests, which may throw up a fractured mandate.

in Bangalore

THE political atmosphere in Karnataka is lacklustre as there is no sign of enthusiasm among the electorate and the candidates for the three-phased Assembly elections beginning on May 10. The only indication that elections to the 224 Assembly constituencies are round the corner has come from angry aspirants who were denied the ticket by their respective parties. While candidates and party workers attribute the low-key campaigning to the strict norms laid down by the Election Commission (E.C.), the average voter appears to be convinced that no politician deserves his vote. The electorates apparent disenchantment has the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) worried since a low turnout can lead to a fractured mandate.

The election campaign norms, which prohibit banners and large cut-outs, distribution of things such as liquor, saris, television sets and refrigerators, and conduct of mass marriages and pujas, have been largely welcomed. But there are indications that money and muscle power are being used to motivate voters.

However, the contestants and political parties now resort to door-to-door canvassing, staging of street plays, using the Web to seek votes, and so on. Politicians agree that ideology was put on the back burner, with winnability of the candidate and the amount of money that he or she can spend being the criteria for nomination. Neither was the confidence of party workers given much credence. An election sans ideology has also resulted in politicians switching loyalties.

Party workers thronging the offices of the parties say that in a number of cases nominations were sold for large sums of money. Not many are prepared to believe Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president Mallikarjan Kharges denial that cash was taken in return for the party ticket. He maintained that nominations were made solely on the basis of caste, merit and the candidates margin of defeat in the previous elections.

As the three main contenders the Congress, the BJP and the Janata Dal (Secular), or the JDS prepare for the final assault, the dearth of meaningful promises and the absence of any visible signs of an anti-incumbency factor or any wave or issues that will move the masses, make a prediction impossible. The resurgence of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) following the success of its political arithmetic in Uttar Pradesh, and, more importantly, the delimitation exercise that has affected nearly 150 constituencies (53 seats have been declared Reserved) have made the elections a virtual foray into uncharted waters. Seasoned political campaigners, many of whom had to move from their traditional strongholds because of the delimitation exercise, are wary of even hazarding a guess about the results.

Lingayats, who make up around 16 per cent of the States population and can influence the outcome in 65 to 70 seats, have been affected by the delimitation exercise. Along with Vokkaligas (who comprise around 14 per cent of the population and are influential in 55 to 60 seats), Lingayats form one of the two most dominant community blocks in the State. Almost a third of the seats where Lingayats were strong have been redrawn as Reserved constituencies. Senior Congress politicians privately admitted that they had trouble finding general constituencies for Lingayat candidates.

The outcome of the 2004 Assembly elections, when no party secured a winning majority, was a clear indication that Karnatakas politics was in transition and the State was entering a phase of coalition/minority governments. Also, starting with the 1994 elections, Karnataka has been witness to the rejection of the ruling party in the Assembly polls with voters showing a preference for an alternative either the Janata Party/Janata Dal or the Congress.

But the 2004 elections bucked this trend, with neither the BJP nor the JDS being able to project itself as a viable alternative to the S.M. Krishna-led Congress.

The 2004 elections also reversed the trend of several years when contests were predominantly of a bipolar nature. The forthcoming elections are certainly going to follow the trend of multi-cornered contests, and probably throw up a fractured mandate.

Senior JDS leader and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, for one, thinks so. At a party conference, he said that no one would be able to come to power in Karnataka without his support.

His partys credible showing in the 2004 elections (it won 58 seats), coupled with the inability of the Congress and the BJP to come up with a majority on their own, resulted in Deve Gowda playing the role of kingmaker. Initially the party was part of the coalition government led by M. Dharam Singh of the Congress.

Later the JDS under H.D. Kumaraswamy, Deve Gowdas son, aligned with the BJP to form the government. However, with both coalition experiments failing, whether such an experiment will ever be allowed to work in Karnataka is a big question.

It is unlikely that the JDS, which has lost leaders such as former Deputy Chief Ministers Siddaramaiah and M.P. Prakash, and P.G.R. Sindhia, will be able to recreate the magic of 2004. Today, Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy are its star campaigners. Siddaramaiah, who hails from the influential Kuruba community, which can swing electoral fortunes in around 45 seats, has left the JDS. The beneficiary is the Congress, which also has other Kuruba leaders such as H.M. Revanna and H. Vishwanath.

The BSP, which is contesting all the 224 seats, hopes to clinch enough seats in order to be in a position to dictate terms, in the event of a fractured mandate. Sindhia, who quit the JDS after it took the BJPs support to form the government and has now switched loyalties to the BSP, said: The actions of leaders of all the parties would help a fractured mandate. The lack of discipline in the way nominations have been handed out indicates that nobody wants a single party to win a majority.

Sindhia said the strength of the party cadre in the State that was built up by Kanshi Ram and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawatis campaigning would result in the BSP throwing up a surprise in the elections. In 2004 the party drew a blank. It estimates that it has around 10 per cent of the vote in each constituency thanks to the consolidation of Dalit votes.

But political observers are not prepared to agree with the BSPs reading that it will damage the Congress prospects by capturing the Dalit vote, which along with the minority vote has traditionally gone to the Congress.

Said senior Congressman and former Chief Minister M. Veerappa Moily: There is no reason why we shall slip down. Our reading is that we shall increase our vote share by 4 to 5 per cent, winning back areas in Hyderabad-Karnataka and Bombay-Karnataka that went to the BJP and in the old Mysore areas to the JDS in 2004. This will give us a clear majority.

Moily dismisses the BSP threat of eating into the Congress vote share. The BSPs expulsion of B. Gopal, its former State president [he has now joined the Congress], was a mistake. The BSP has lost the person who built the party in the State.

Attributing the Congress loss in 2004 to the clubbing of parliamentary and Assembly elections (the Assembly elections could have been delayed by another six months but Krishna decided on early polls), the Atal Bihari Vajpayee wave and the emotive issue of Bababudangiri (in Chikmagalur district), which the BJP was able to cash in on, Moily said this time there was no issue to benefit the BJP.

They won around 27 per cent of the vote share riding on these factors. Today Vajpayee is nowhere, L.K. Advani doesnt carry any pan-national charisma and there are no emotive issues. Even in the coastal areas where they are trying to recreate a Gujarat, the BJPs strength has gone down, he said.

The Congress leadership is also downplaying the resignation threat by former Union Minister C.K. Jaffer Sharief. (The party allegedly was not prepared to put up his grandson as a candidate.) According to a senior Congressman, Sharief has been fighting for a greater say for Muslims in the Congress. He was given a 90-minute audience with Congress president Sonia Gandhi.

The Congress has also been boosted by the return of Krishna to State politics. Although he is not in the race to lead the party, he has been sent to serve the party. But the Congress greatest bugbear continues to be infighting.

As in the Congress, the very thought of a fractured mandate is anathema to the BJP. Having experienced power for the first time in the South when it was part of the Kumaraswamy-led coalition, the BJP is keen to capture the State on its own, and according to State BJP president D. Sadananda Gowda the party will do better than its 2004 performance.

The party hopes to maintain its hold over the coastal areas and make some gains in northern Karnataka. Also hoping to garner the Lingayat vote, it has declared B.S. Yediyurappa, who ruled the State for seven days, as its chief ministerial candidate.

Yediyurappa, however, faces the daunting task of defeating former Chief Minister S. Bangarappa, a mercurial politician who is now with the Samajwadi Party, in the Shikaripur seat. While Deve Gowda has offered his support to Bangarappa, the Congress is also toying with the idea of withdrawing its candidate so as to ensure a straight fight between Bangarappa and Yediyurappa.