Secular divide

Through its byelection campaign, the Congress intensifies its battle with the ruling Samajwadi Party for the secular space in U.P.

THE campaign for the October 13 byelections to 12 Assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh reflects a political irony. In contrast to the general tendency of Opposition parties to take byelections seriously, the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh does not seem to be mounting a forceful campaign. Instead, it is the Congress, which technically supports the Samajwadi Party-led government in the State, that is trying hard to assume the role of an aggressive fighter against the ruling party. The S.P. leadership is equally trenchant in its response to the Congress' campaign.

What is interesting about the tussle is that the Congress does not have much at stake in these elections, especially in terms of the number of seats it is trying to retain. It held only two of the 12 seats that face byelection. Among the other parties, the S.P. had four seats, its ally the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) one, the BJP three and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) two. Moreover, there is no political wave in favour of the Congress. Even the most optimistic leaders of the Congress do not make this claim. Still, it is the Congress that is most active on the campaign front.

The exertions of the Congress and the S.P.'s resistance clearly point to a unique political struggle in the country's most populous State. Leaders of the two parties and observers describe it as a struggle to "dominate the secular political space" in Uttar Pradesh.

The genesis of the struggle was in the Lok Sabha elections, when the Congress and the S.P. presented themselves before the electorate as the "real" alternative to the "Hindutva-oriented, communal politics of the BJP", which headed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre. The S.P. handsomely won that round by winning 36 of the 80 seats in the State. The Congress had to be content with nine.

The results of the Lok Sabha elections, however, did not mark the end of their tussle for the secular political space. In fact, the ouster of the NDA government and the ascent of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) at the Centre gave a new impetus to the Congress leadership to continue its battle against the S.P.

In the early days of the UPA government, the Congress' combative spirit manifested itself in moves to break the alliance between the S.P. and the RLD, evolve a new coalition in the State along with the RLD and the BSP and launch a series of mass agitations to highlight the S.P. government's "failures".

In the context of these tactical formulations, Congress leaders such as Jagadambika Pal even marked the latest round of byelections as a "watershed political event" that would "concretise the party's political revival in the State". But the experience of the past four months has been anything but reassuring for the Congress. Its plans to wean away the RLD from the S.P. by promising ministerial berths in the Central government failed, as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav made a number of political and administrative concessions to keep the RLD in the fold.

With the failure of the very first move in its game plan, the Congress found it difficult to pursue the efforts to rope in the BSP to form a new coalition. Developments in Maharashtra - where Assembly elections are scheduled for October 13 - also contributed to the abandoning of the attempts to form a larger coalition. The opposition to an alliance with the BSP came primarily from the Congress' Maharashtra allies, the Republican Party of India (RPI) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

THE Congress, however, went ahead with its agitation plans against the S.P. government. Both Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son and Member of Parliament Rahul Gandhi led some of these campaigns. The results were far from impressive. For instance, its call for a general strike on September 6 to protest against "the total failure of the S.P. government to check the rising crime graph in the State evoked little response.

By all indications, the aggressive campaign of the Congress for the byelections has failed a strike a chord among the voters. In fact, observers are not ready to brush aside the claims of S.P. leaders, including party general secretary Amar Singh, that their party would wrest the two Assembly seats held by the Congress. The statements of some State Congress leaders about the possibility of "large-scale rigging by the S.P." is perceived by a section of political observers as an admission of defeat.

The S.P.-RLD alliance seems to be the frontrunner in as many as seven seats and the BSP and the BJP have an edge in three and two seats. The results of these elections, whichever way they go, will have no direct bearing on the survival of the S.P. government. The government has the support of 239 legislators in a House of 391. The supporters include 16 legislators each of the Congress and the RLD.

With 12 seats being filled up, the strength of the Assembly would increase to 403. Even if the S.P. loses all the 12 seats, and the Congress and RLD withdraw support to the government, the S.P. and its small partners will still have 207 seats, five seats more than a simple majority.

THE byelection to the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat was necessitated by the decision of Mulayam Singh Yadav, who held the seat, to remain as Chief Minister. Here too, the S.P. has an edge though the Congress has succeeded in roping in Balram Singh Yadav, the candidate of the BJP in the general elections.

Balram Singh Yadav is expected to help the Congress improve its position. While the Congress garnered 9,896 votes in the general elections, Balram Singh Yadav got 1,11,153 votes. Both lost their deposits as Mulayam Singh Yadav got 4,60,470 votes. Reports suggest that some Congress leaders are trying to work out an adjustment with the BSP in the constituency in order to give a tough fight to S.P. candidate Darmendra Singh Yadav, a nephew of the Chief Minister. By all indications, the response of the BSP - which got 1,22,600 votes in the general elections - has been lukewarm.

Sections of Congress leaders, however, hope that they will somehow succeed in forging an understanding with the BSP. If their hopes become a reality and the S.P. loses in Mainpuri, one may well see some new dimensions to the struggle for the secular political space in Uttar Pradesh.