NORTH KOREAssymbolic demolition on June 27 of the cooling tower at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, the suspected nerve centre of the countrys atomic arms programme, has added a touch of drama to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. The demolition, orchestrated as an international media event, followed the long-awaited declaration a day earlier by North Korea about its nuclear weapons programme.
Encouraged by this, President George W. Bush lost no time in notifying the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea) of his intention to delete it from the United States list of terror-sponsoring states. He gave himself 45 days time to do so and depicted it as an informal probation period for North Korea. He also notified the DPRK that it would no longer be treated as an enemy for the purposes of trading with the U.S.
The latest series of events, by no means a surprise despite an almost six-month delay, was already agreed upon by the six parties to the ongoing process of dialogue on Korean denuclearisation. The six parties are the DPRK, the U.S., China as the proactive host, South Korea, Japan and Russia.
The June 26 declaration was indeed preceded by the North Korean action of handing over nearly 18,000 pages of documents, dubbed the nuclear papers, to the U.S. on May 10. The DPRK chose to present its latest declaration, not to be confused with the earlier papers, to China and not the U.S. Bush has appreciated this as proof that Beijing is robustly involved in the six-party process as a major protagonist of non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament on the global stage.
Pyongyangs gesture can also be traced to the April 8 meeting in Singapore between Kim Kye-gwan and Christopher Hill, the nuclear negotiators from the DPRK and the U.S. On that occasion, the DPRK announced that it would make a full declaration in exchange for political compensation, which was left unspecified at the time. However, it is common knowledge in the six-party circle that the compensation that Pyongyang has in mind ranges from credible security guarantees, however packaged, for the DPRKs stability as a state under the present Kim Jong-il regime. Closely related to this is Pyongyangs expectation of generous economic assistance to the Kim government and the people under it.
Such political compensation, in whatever nomenclature, will loom as a major issue as the six parties move forward on the basis of the latest declaration. So far, the progress card on the implementation of the several incremental agreements under the six-party framework reads somewhat as follows: North Korea has shut down its well-known nuclear facilities, is disabling them under the watchful eye of international inspectors, and is signalling that it is ready to dismantle all its nuclear capabilities in a suitable political trade-off.
Pyongyangs five partners in this dialogue have several individual and collective issues to sort out in this regard. But three trends stand out. First, the capabilities of North Korea, which has tested a nuclear weapon and is suspected to be concealing some aspects of its arms programme in this context, are sought to be destroyed. This is designed to render Pyongyangs arsenal, whatever its size, unusable after a period. Second, the DPRK, while mindful of its historical equation with China, is keen to engage the U.S. as its peer. Third is Kim Jong-ils constant portrayal of the terror and allure of nuclear weapons, which disarmament experts like Jonathan Schell have alluded to in a larger context as North Koreas best bet for survival.
P.S. Suryanarayana in Singapore
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