Restrained dissent

The Congress appears to be divided on the issue, but the dissenters do not want to discredit the official line.

in New Delhi

EVEN though the Congress officially continues to put on a brave face on the issue of supporting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the 123 Agreement, a major section of the party is dismayed at the willingness to sacrifice the government in order to operationalise the deal with a discredited Bush. Many party leaders fail to understand the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) governments hurry to push the deal through and its attitude towards the Left, which has threatened to withdraw support if the government takes a step further towards operationalising the agreement.

What we dont understand is why there is so much hurry. It is not as if fuel for our nuclear power plants will start coming the day we make the deal operational. In any case, there will be a new government in the United States very soon, so why can the government not wait instead of going ahead with a deal with a discredited Bush? asked a senior Congress leader, who is a member of the All India Congress Committee (AICC) and the Congress Working Committee. Another Congress leader told Frontline that there obviously was a vast difference in the perceptions of those supporting the deal and those opposing the timing but not the deal as such.

The Prime Ministers perception is academic and more intellectual than anything else, which is different from a political perception. If he had viewed the entire thing in a political context he would have told the U.S. that since the UPAs was not a single-party government, it depended on support from other parties for survival, and since there was no consensus on the deal, a decision could not be taken. But he has not felt the need to see it from the political perspective, he said.

The Congress appears to be vertically split on the issue. However, the dissenting leaders do not want to discredit openly the official line of support on the issue. Leaders concerned with realpolitik are not in favour of the deal because early elections would mean double the worry. Besides, those involved with ground-level politics are of the view that such issues do not fetch votes, so even if the government is sacrificed at the altar of the nuclear deal voters are not likely to be impressed because they are grappling with economic problems.

Even some UPA constituents are of the opinion that sacrificing the government does not serve any purpose. Although officially they have backed the Prime Minister so far, in private many of them have expressed concern over the advisability of going in for early elections. We still have over 10 months to go for the government to complete its term, and in politics, this period is long enough to change things upside down. At the moment things certainly dont seem to be in our favour, but who knows, one year down the line, we may be better placed. So why take a chance? a senior Minister in the UPA government, who is also the president of one of the constituent parties, observed. The fact, however, is that Congressmen and leaders of the supporting parties feel that the Prime Minister should not be let down as his credibility is at stake.

Interestingly, counting of heads and the partys electoral preparedness is the main topic of discussion at the Congress headquarters in New Delhi. Even those not in favour of letting the government fall over the nuclear issue agree that either way it will not affect their electoral prospects.

If the Left withdraws support now, the earliest that elections can happen is by November-December. If elections are held on schedule, they would have to be held in March-April. March or April would not be advisable because this is the time for school board examinations and teachers, who form the bulk of personnel deployed for election duty, would not be available. So logically the elections would be held in February. Whether they are held in December or February does not matter as we dont expect any major qualitative changes taking place in the meantime that would alter the voters perception, a senior Congress leader maintained.

According to him, the government has delivered almost 99 per cent of what the Congress promised in its election manifesto and there is nothing much it can do now by way of value addition. If one compared the partys manifesto and the Common Minimum Programme, it would become evident that the government had delivered substantially, he said. What more can we do now that can dramatically alter the situation? he asked. Interestingly, this is the partys official line as well.

According to M. Veerappa Moily, AICC general secretary, who has played a key role in the UPA-Left negotiations on the nuclear deal, the timing of the elections will not change the prospects of the party (see interview). He said the party was ready to face early elections if it came to that. According to him, the compulsions of running a coalition government, which meant making compromises, had only weakened the party. We are not stronger, we got weakened by all the compromises that we made. Now if we are forced to go in for elections, we will only emerge stronger, he said. He said the nuclear deal was in the countrys larger interests and that the Congress alliance partners backed the party, deal or no deal. This is the beauty of it, that we have very strong alliances, he said.

In fact, many Congressmen are willing to concede that the Lefts withdrawal of support will not have a catastrophic effect on the party. Despite our compulsions, we have managed to enact historic laws such as the Rural Employment Guarantee Act, the Right to Information Act and laws relating to women [Domestic Violence Act] and children. Besides, the government has not faced any major corruption scandal or scams such as the ones that surfaced during the National Democratic Alliance regime, nor has it made major compromises on economic policies. What more can we ask for? a senior leader said.

This government has set a few milestones, which others will find difficult to match, so we are not afraid of facing the voter, he said. In fact, some Congress leaders actually believe that if the government falls the party will be better off than the Left because the Left will have to do all the explaining.

Realising the strong possibility of elections, the Congress has launched its back-room exercises in right earnest. The A.K. Anthony Committee report, which is now with party president Sonia Gandhi for action, is the basis on which the party will go ahead with its preparations.

According to informed sources, the report, for the first time, has been election-specific, both State Assemblies and Lok Sabha. Although the report has not come up for discussions at party fora yet, leaders say its impact will be seen in a months time when the party announces its election-related programmes. The report deals at length with inner-party functioning, and the changes will be reflected in a months time, said a senior leader. Moily expressed ignorance about the contents of the report but said that in keeping with the suggestions contained in the report he had submitted earlier about future challenges, the party would try to streamline various exercises instead of leaving them for the last moment. The selection of candidates and assigning of various tasks, among other things, can be done in advance so that last-minute rush is avoided and the candidates have enough time to plan their strategy.

We have to reach the people with the right message, make them aware of the work that has been done by this government. Our State-level meetings in this respect have already started, another senior leader said. But this is easier said than done.

Congressmen themselves are well aware that the State units are beset with infighting. A sample of this was visible at a recent meeting in Dehra Dun, when supporters of rival Congress leaders came to blows in the presence of senior leader R.K. Dhawan. Dhawan was in the Uttarakhand capital to discuss how the achievements of the UPA government could be better disseminated to the people.

In Maharashtra, infighting came to the fore at a recent public meeting addressed by Sonia Gandhi herself. Chief Minister Vilasrao Desmukh was also present at the meeting, where supporters of Narayan Rane created a ruckus when he was denied a respectful place on the dais.

In Uttar Pradesh or Bihar, where the party is completely alienated from the masses, or in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which go to the polls in November, the State units are hardly in a condition to fight elections.

Congressmen are, however, confident that things will turn favourable because the UPA government has done some really good work. They hope that prices will now come down. They are also banking on the partys new allies, the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.

The question is how to avoid scoring a self-goal. The Anthony committee report will have the answer.