Children in India among most vulnerable to climate change risks: UNICEF

They will make up the world’s largest child population by 2050, with 350 million of them inheriting an increasingly unstable planet.

Floods, heatwaves and tropical storms not only impact the physical health of children but disrupt their education too. | Photo Credit: SHASHI SHEKHAR KASHYAP

Nearly half the world’s children—around one billion—live in countries facing high risk from climate change and environmental hazards, warns The State of the World’s Children 2024 report by UNICEF. In fact, children today face a more unpredictable environment than those in any previous generation, the report adds. Released on World Children’s Day, November 20, the 2024 edition of the report, titled ‘From here to 2050’, studies the dramatic transformations expected in the near future.

Children in India are among the most vulnerable, considering their sheer numbers. By 2050, the report predicts, more than a third of the world’s children will live in just four countries: India, China, Nigeria, and Pakistan. India and China will have the largest child populations, at 350 million (20.7 per cent of its population) and 141 million (11.7 per cent of its population) respectively.

This year’s report identifies three megatrends: demographic shifts, climate and environmental crises, and frontier technology, which will each shape the trajectory of childhood over the next quarter century.

At the report’s release, Cynthia McCaffrey, UNICEF India Representative, said, “The three megatrends highlighted by the State of the World’s Children report compel us to examine how to support countries in creating a future that advances the rights of every child. Decisions made today will shape the world our children inherit in 2050. Collectively, we have the opportunity and responsibility to build a prosperous and sustainable future for all children. Placing children and their rights at the centre, in all strategies, policies and actions is the way forward.”

The global demographic landscape is set to shift dramatically by 2050. While the number of children worldwide is expected to remain steady at around 2.3 billion, regional disparities will define the future of childhood. Children in high-income countries will account for a smaller share of the population. Africa will become the epicentre of global childhood: by 2100, more children will live here than anywhere in the world.

Meanwhile, the share of children in the overall population is expected to decrease in every region between 2025 and 2050, highlighting the need for targeted efforts to ensure their voices and rights remain central. The dependency ratio, the proportion of children and the elderly to working-age adults, is expected to fall in West and Central Africa and Eastern and Southern Africa.

Urbanisation will further shape children’s lives: by 2050, an estimated 1.3 billion children—one-third more than today—will live in cities, highlighting the urgent need for urban planning that prioritised safe, healthy and accessible spaces for children.

The impacts of climate change are already shaping the world children will inherit. By 2050, eight times more children are projected to be exposed to extreme heatwaves compared to the 2000s. Additionally, 1.7 times more children will face extreme wildfires, and 1.3 times more will face severe droughts.

These environmental disruptions pose critical health risks. Rising average temperatures have already increased mosquito populations, heightening the risks of diseases such as malaria, dengue,

Zika and the West Nile virus. Air pollution ranks as the second leading cause of death for children under five, as a result of asthma, cardiovascular diseases and neurological disorders.

The effects of climate change extend beyond physical health. Extreme weather events such as floods, heatwaves, and tropical storms disrupt education, with more than 400 million students worldwide experiencing school closures due to extreme weather since 2022. These disruptions widen learning gaps and increase mental health conditions, with many children experiencing long-lasting trauma from climate-related disasters.

Disasters and conflict

Displacement remains another pressing concern. Approximately 117 million people were displaced in 2023, including 20.8 million children within their own countries due to disasters and conflict. Climate-related disasters currently displace around 20,000 children daily, with these numbers expected to grow as climate change intensifies.

The rise of frontier technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), neurotechnology, next-generation renewable energy and vaccine breakthroughs could significantly improve childhood in the future. For instance, advancements in mRNA vaccines are suggested to combat deadly diseases like malaria and influenza more effectively.

However, with the transformative potential come risks that must be managed to ensure equitable benefits for all children. The report points out that barely 26 per cent of children in low-income countries have Internet access, compared to over 95 per cent in high-income countries.

Infrastructure limitations, high costs and permission barriers could exacerbate the digital divide, potentially meaning that an already disadvantaged generation falls even further behind in terms of educational and economic opportunities offered by the digital world.

UNICEF’s analysis explores various future scenarios, underscoring the critical impact of today’s decisions on the lives of children. The “business-as-usual” pathway signals a troubling future for children worldwide. By the 2050s, child populations in low-income and low-middle-income countries are expected to surge, while those in wealthier regions continue to decline.

The lives of children are already being devastated by constant war, conflict, and violence. Today, regions such as Gaza, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lebanon, and Sudan are grappling with these realities, and without intervention, they will remain unstable.

While globally, fewer children are projected to live in areas with a high risk of prolonged subnational conflict, specific regions face worsening conditions. In eastern and southern Africa, the number of children living in countries with a high risk of prolonged conflict is expected to increase from 71 million in the 2000s to 97.8 million in the 2050s. Similarly, for West and Central Africa, the figure is set to rise from 5.1 million to a staggering 69 million.

These projections serve as a stark warning: without decisive action, these trends risk deepening inequality, amplifying vulnerabilities and jeopardising the futures of millions of children.