The alleged sex scandal involving Prajwal Revanna, the Hassan Lok Sabha candidate of the BJP-JD(S) alliance, could adversely impact the BJP in the 14 Lok Sabha constituencies of north Karnataka that will vote on May 7. While JD(S) has a limited base in these constituencies and has not been allocated any seat in this region as part of its alliance, it does have pockets of support in Raichur, Kalaburagi, and Vijayapura manifested in its past victories in Legislative Assembly elections in these districts. The Congress has pounced on the issue and has been highlighting the hypocrisy of the BJP with its focus on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message, Beti Bachao Beti Padhao (Save Women, Educate Women).
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Pictures of Revanna alongside Modi have also been doing the rounds on social media as the Congress is making an aggressive attempt to critique Modi among his Lingayat supporters in the region. With Revanna’s scandal, the Congress has also found a powerful issue to counter the BJP, which was forefronting the murder of Neha Hiremath by a jilted Muslim youth in Hubballi. A Congress leader, who was campaigning in rural Kalaburagi told Frontline that there was awareness of Revanna’s scandal among voters, especially women. “This is becoming an important issue that has come at the right time for the Congress. Wherever I go, even to the remotest village, people are aware that a crime has been committed. We already had an advantage with our five guarantees touching the lives of women. This will add to our support.”
Tremendous disgust
K. Neela, the Kalaburagi-based State vice president of the All India Democratic Women’s Association, said that the JD(S) support base in Kalyana Karnataka (Hyderabad Karnataka) had already eroded even before the Revanna videos came to light. “The JD(S) had a narrow support base in Kalyana Karnataka, primarily among Backward Castes and Muslims. These supporters and local-level leaders have been reluctant to campaign for the BJP candidates because the basis of their politics has been against the saffron party.” She added, “This is a feudal, backward part of the State, and when Revanna’s videos went viral, there was tremendous disgust among people here so this will certainly affect the BJP’s prospects.”
A similar sentiment was expressed by R. Khaatib, a Kalaburagi-based social activist who said that while “Muslims and Dalits, who constitute a major chunk of the voters in Kalyana Karnataka, will vote against the BJP, Revanna’s scandal may also impact BJP’s traditional Lingayat voters who are a large part of the population here.”
BJP’s massive margins
A Belagavi-based English journalist with a prominent national broadsheet, who did not want to be named, said: “The magnitude of Revanna’s sexual crimes has meant that women voters of the area, including BJP’s traditional supporters, will either vote against the BJP or will not vote at all.” This could be a serious concern for the BJP as Modi enjoyed wide support among women across north Karnataka: this was evident in the massive margins of victory for the BJP in 2019 wherever women turnout was more than that of men.
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Another Kannada-language journalist in Vijayapura went to the extent of saying that Revanna’s crimes were “the last nail in the coffin” for the BJP in Bijapur and Bagalkot Lok Sabha seats. “The women’s wing of the Congress has campaigned effectively focussing on Revanna’s sexual predatory behaviour, reaching rural hamlets as part of their door-to-door campaign. Even before the scandal came to light, there was a sentiment of anti-incumbency against the BJP candidates in these two constituencies. With Revanna’s scandal becoming widely known, I highly doubt that the BJP will win here.”
M. Ahiraj, a Ballari-based senior journalist, however said that the issue did not seem to have a tremendous impact on the voters’ mind. “In Ballari at least, which is an ST reserved constituency, the issue is not being discussed widely. In fact, there were more protests after the murder of Neha Hiremath; but this was done by the BJP. Ballari is peculiar as no issue dominates the election narrative with both the BJP and Congress having an entrenched voter base. Since the JD(S) did not have a presence, it will not have any direct impact on the voters.”
