On September 12, a single-judge bench of the Karnataka High Court reserved its judgment after concluding its hearing in the case where Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah challenged Governor Thawar Chand Gehlot’s sanction for his prosecution in the Mysore Urban Development Authority (MUDA) case.
This case, which has shaken Karnataka politics, pertains to allegations made against Siddaramaiah that he had connived with pliant bureaucrats to ensure illegal land allotments to his wife. Even while the Karnataka High Court was conducting its hearing, senior leaders of the Congress began lobbying for the Chief Minister’s position anticipating a possible leadership change. The contenders are drawing attention to factionalism within the Congress’ State unit.
When the Congress emerged victorious in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly election by a massive majority in May 2023, senior leader of the party D.K. Shivakumar made a strong bid for the Chief Minister’s post. Shivakumar was appointed as Deputy Chief Minister with a vague understanding that he would be appointed as Chief Minister sometime in the future.
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Factionalism reared its head again early this year when there were demands that three or four additional Deputy Chief Ministers from other significant communities in the State should also be appointed to the post. This demand gained traction after the party’s poor show in the Lok Sabha election where it won only 9 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the State.
Caveated with support
Several senior leaders of the party have begun to state their ambition to become the Chief Minister. Over the past two weeks, Satish Jarkiholi (Public Works Minister), G. Parameshwar (Home Minister), M.B. Patil (Large and Heavy Industries Minister), R.V. Deshpande (Chairman of the Administrative Reforms Commission), Shamanur Shivashankarappa (veteran MLA), and Basavaraj Rayareddy (economic advisor to the Chief Minister) have made statements to the media about their intentions to become the Chief Minister.
While their comments have been caveated with support for Siddaramaiah, their aspirations, nonetheless, have been articulated in preparation for a possible leadership change if two conditions are met: first, the Karnataka High Court sanctions the prosecution of Siddaramaiah under the Prevention of Corruption Act; and second, if an arrest warrant is issued against the Chief Minister.
Even if an arrest warrant is issued against Siddaramaiah, he could, in theory, continue to be Chief Minister a la Arvind Kejriwal but it is doubtful if the high command will allow him to reign over the State’s affairs at that point. All this is speculative and contingent on the Karnataka High Court’s judgment.
Advantage to BJP’s allies
It has been clear right from the start of Siddaramaiah’s second tenure as Chief Minister that his position is not as secure as it was during his first term (2013-18). Often, the speculation in the corridors of Vidhana Soudha is whether Siddaramaiah will be able to or even be allowed to complete a five-year term. While the BJP, the principal opposition party, is also racked by factionalism with serious opposition to B.Y. Vijayendra who heads the State unit, the saffron party’s successful coalition with the Janata Dal (Secular) and the alliance of the two dominant castes of Karnataka—Lingayats and Vokkaligas—has provided a robust political advantage to allies.
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Siddaramaiah’s strength comes from the fact that he is the only current pan-Karnataka mass leader of the Congress, and if his position is seen as being undermined, the Congress will suffer in the only big State that it currently rules in the country. Cognisant of this threat to the party’s prospects, a set of Congress leaders from Karnataka close to Siddaramaiah approached Congress leader Rahul Gandhi with a request that it take serious note of these aspirants restrict their statements. There has been no acknowledgement so far, at least in public, that the central leadership of the party has heeded this advice.
There is no threat to the Congress government with its immense majority in the legislature (it has 136 MLAs in the 224-member Assembly) but recent developments reveal that all is not well within the party. Coming on the back of corruption allegations against the Congress government, these developments do not bode well for the Congress as far as public perception is concerned.
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