Kashmir braces for its first Assembly election in a decade with hope and scepticism

Political parties gear up for a historic election amid concerns over statehood, security, and the Lt Governor’s expanded powers.

BSF soldiers stand guard along a street in Srinagar on August 16, 2024. | Photo Credit: AFP

Jammu and Kashmir is preparing for its long-awaited Assembly election, with the Election Commission of India (ECI) announcing the schedule for next month. The election, first since Jammu and Kashmir became a Union Territory in 2019 and in a decade, will be held in three phases: September 18, 25, and October 1, with vote counting on October 4. The ECI proceeded with the election schedule despite the concerns about the rising militant attacks in the Jammu region.

The Chief Election Commissioner, while announcing the schedule, praised the significant voter turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, noting that people chose ballots over bullets. The election is expected to generate considerable enthusiasm, ending a six-year period without an elected government. “We need an elected government for some breathing space,” said Ali Mohammad, a 55-year-old resident from Pulwama in South Kashmir. “Elections will allow us to directly address our issues with local representatives.”

The announcement is also likely to relieve political leaders advocating for an elected government in Jammu and Kashmir. Noor Ahmad Baba, political analyst and former professor at the University of Kashmir, anticipates a substantial voter turnout similar to the recent Lok Sabha election. “People seem dissatisfied with governance over the past six years and prefer an elected administration over bureaucratic control from outside the State.” The Lok Sabha election saw Jammu and Kashmir‘s highest voter turnout in 35 years at 58.46 per cent, a significant increase from 19.16 per cent in 2019.

Senior BJP leader Sat Paul Sharma said the party is ready to contest the Assembly election, stating it will field candidates in all seats and is confident of forming the next government. “We have demonstrated our performance in the recently concluded Lok Sabha election,” Sharma said. When asked about restoring statehood before elections, BJP’s Sharma replied that national interests would be prioritised.

Regional heavyweights gear up for battle

The National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), both regional heavyweights, are also preparing to participate but do not credit the BJP, which is leading the coalition that rules at the Centre, for initiating the polls. NC spokesperson Ifra Jan told Frontline that the BJP was compelled by a Supreme Court directive, marking the first time in independent India that the court had to mandate elections in Jammu and Kashmir.

In December 2023, the Supreme Court upheld the abrogation of Article 370 and directed the Election Commission to conduct the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election by September 30 this year. Senior PDP leader Naeem Akhtar told Frontline that he does not view the Assembly election as a favour to Jammu and Kashmir. “Our dreams of accession to India, achieved by our ancestors, have been shattered. It’s difficult to see this as positive, especially after August 2019 undermined our aspirations. It feels like they’ve cut off our feet and are now offering us slippers,” Akhtar said.

The Lok Sabha election results showed the NC, PDP, and Congress collectively led in 46 out of 90 Assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir, while the BJP and its ally Peoples Conference (PC) led in 30 seats.

Jammu and Kashmir has been without an elected government since June 2018, when the BJP withdrew support from the PDP-led government, leading to Governor’s rule. In November 2018, Governor Satya Pal Malik dissolved the State Assembly, and President’s rule was imposed on December 20, 2018. The region is currently governed by a Centre-appointed Lieutenant Governor. Following the 2022 delimitation process, Jammu and Kashmir now has 114 Assembly seats: 24 for areas in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, 43 in Jammu, and 47 in Kashmir.

Akhtar questioned the government’s priorities: “Why not restore statehood before holding elections? Elections are the EC’s responsibility, but restoring statehood is the government’s. This seems like another step towards disempowerment.”

PDP President Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter and media advisor, Iltija Mufti, raised concerns about a recent amendment to the Transaction of Business Rules by the Ministry of Home Affairs. This amendment enhances the Jammu and Kashmir Lt Governor’s authority over police, public order, civil services, and personnel matters, potentially limiting the Assembly’s powers.

Significant issues

As seen in the Lok Sabha election, the abrogation of Article 370, BJP’s policies, and strategies to counter their influence are expected to remain significant issues in the Assembly election. According to Noor Ahmad Baba, Jammu and Kashmir voters would likely behave similarly to the Lok Sabha election. “If statehood isn’t restored before elections, voters will prioritise voting to regain it. Safeguarding land, identity, resources, and Article 370 will remain crucial concerns,” he told Frontline.

Jan said the NC’s election manifesto would align with themes articulated by party leader Omar Abdullah during recent Lok Sabha campaigns, focussing on secure employment, protecting land and culture, advocating for the release of imprisoned youth, and reducing electricity bills.

Despite losing all three Lok Sabha seats in the Kashmir Valley, PDP’s Akhtar stated that the party is ready to contest the Assembly election. “While I can’t speculate on our manifesto, we will fight elections. PDP has never shied away from the democratic process,” he said.

It remains to be seen whether former Chief Ministers Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti will contest, having previously stated they would refrain until Jammu and Kashmir regains statehood. Akhtar mentioned that while Mehbooba Mufti is not contesting, other PDP leaders will. Jan, however, said that Farooq Abdullah is trying to persuade a reluctant Omar Abdullah to reconsider for the sake of serving the people.

However, in the Lok Sabha election, the former Chief Ministers suffered significant losses, with Abdullah losing in 15 out of 18 Assembly seats and Mufti in 16 out of 18. NC President Farooq Abdullah announced his intention to participate in the Assembly election, stating, “Once statehood is restored, I will step down, and my son Omar Abdullah will run for the seat.”

Engineer Rashid: A dark horse?

Following a victory in the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat, jailed politician Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) is now targeting the upcoming Assembly election. AIP spokesman Firdous Baba told Frontline that the party plans to field candidates in all Kashmir Valley Assembly segments, citing overwhelming public support for Rashid’s principled politics.

However, Noor Ahmad Baba noted that while Rashid’s incarceration garnered sympathy during the parliamentary election, this effect might be limited to north Kashmir in the Assembly election. “There could be a formation of an alliance as NC may join hands with the PDP to form a government. There could even be a larger alliance also between the PDP, NC, and Congress.”

In the Lok Sabha election, in Kashmir, the NC led in 34 Assembly seats, the PDP in 5, and Engineer Rashid in 14 constituencies. The BJP’s alleged proxies—Sajad Lone’s PC and Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party—are expected to face challenges in the Assembly election following their setback in the Lok Sabha election.

Irfan Amin Malik is a journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir.