BJP has successfully mobilised non-dominant groups: Ashish Ranjan

The election analyst deconstructs the results of the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana.

Election analyst Ashish Ranjan | Photo Credit: Special Arrangement

Historically, in Haryana, the Congress has had strong support among Jats, Muslims, and Jatavs, who represent about 40 per cent of the electorate: but the BJP managed to navigate through this and gain support from the Jatavs and Muslims by focusing on other criteria, particularly following the Supreme Court’s verdict on Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) categorisation, election analyst Ashish Ranjan tells Frontline Conversations. As for Jammu and Kashmir, while the most striking issue remains the call for Statehood, the National Conference (NC) was their best option.

Let us look at Haryana briefly. What do you think has happened there?

Haryana is very interesting. For the first time, we have seen a close contest. In terms of vote share, there’s just a 0.8 per cent gap between the BJP and the Congress. And I am emphasising vote share here, not seats. The vote share tells us there is a clear caste polarisation, and it is a classic bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress.

I would like to focus on about 40 per cent of the electorate. In Haryana, three key groups—Jats, Muslims, and Jatavs (upper SC)—make up about 39-40 per cent of the total electorate. The remaining 60 per cent is diverse. Historically, the Congress has had strong support among these groups. However, the BJP managed to navigate through this and gain support from the Jatavs and Muslims by focusing on other criteria, particularly following the Supreme Court’s verdict on SC/ST categorisation.

During our visits to parts of Haryana, we found that many non-Jatav Dalits, such as Dhanaks and Balmikis, were happy with the BJP’s promise to reserve 50 per cent of benefits for these communities. That is significant because during the 2024 national election, the Congress had a strong support of SC communities, partly due to its safe-seat narrative. But the party lost ground, particularly in two constituencies where non-Jat, non-Jatav communities turned away.

In my years covering the BJP, I have noticed they have successfully built a social coalition, uniting people against the dominant castes, whether in the Dalit or OBC categories. They implemented this in Haryana, sticking to their social strategy, which worked for them. In contrast, Congress seemed unaware of the idea of counter-polarisation. Would you agree?

I agree, partly. The BJP’s approach has been to mobilise non-dominant political forces. Some call it “subaltern Hindutva,” but that’s not entirely accurate. In States such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where upper castes still hold power, the BJP has successfully mobilised non-dominant groups. But in Haryana, it’s more about social engineering: expanding their base by tapping into discontent within various communities.

Haryana and J&K Elections: What’s the Deal?

In this insightful edition of Frontline Conversations, veteran journalist Saba Naqvi engages in a candid discussion with political scientist Ashish Ranjan about the recent electoral developments in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir. | Video Credit: Interview by Saba Naqvi; Camera by Dipesh Arora; Production Assistants: Vitasta Kaul and Vedaant Lakhera; Editing by Samson Ronald K.; Produced by: Jinoy Jose P.

The Congress’s strategy, in that case, was fundamentally flawed. They spoke about caste census and privileging socially disadvantaged communities, yet sidelined a key Dalit leader. That kind of hypocrisy is telling...

I completely agree. Congress also focused heavily on Jawan, Kisan, and Pahlwan, terms that mostly refer to the Jat community. This alienated non-Jat groups such as the lower OBCs and SCs, who have historically worked for Jat landowners. Their fear of Jat dominance led them to support the BJP.

On the other hand, I have heard from people in the Aam Aadmi Party that they knew they had a chance of winning one seat in Doda. They were not contesting Haryana aggressively, but they had the intelligence to understand ground realities.

That’s right. The BJP’s cadre, especially the RSS, was fully mobilised. They were not as visible during the Lok Sabha election, but in this campaign, their presence was strong, and that could have implications for other States such as Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

In Maharashtra, the Congress’s recent gains in vote share indicate they are back in the game, right?

Yes, especially in States such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The Congress has crossed the 40 per cent vote share threshold in some contests, which is crucial for a real fight. For nearly 20 years, the Congress has been losing ground, but now they have started contesting effectively again.

I think this election will really demoralise them. Congress tends to rely on mood swings more than on a solid cadre.

In a way, it’s also a wake-up call for Congress. When they win, they often get arrogant, thinking too much about the national picture. They lost big in States such as Haryana because of that mindset.

Since the election results came out, Congress has even blamed EVMs. Meanwhile, AAP and the Samajwadi Party (SP) have already started announcing candidates without consulting the Congress.All this shows how damaged Congress currently is, particularly in Haryana.

I agree. Looking at the bigger picture, 15 or 20 years ago, the Congress was the umbrella party, at least in Haryana. They were seen as a party that accommodated different communities. But now they have become more like a regional party. This centralisation is hurting them. Compare this to Modi and the BJP, which has also become centralised, but they have been able to maintain strong local representation. Congress used to be a party of leaders from different backgrounds. Take the 2017 Gujarat election, for example: Congress became competitive because they brought together leaders such as Jignesh Mevani, Hardik Patel, and Alpesh Thakore from different caste categories.

Let’s turn to Jammu and Kashmir. I recently travelled there, and from what I observed, the NC will likely form the government. But what’s fascinating is how the BJP managed to upstage Congress in Jammu. Congress won only one seat there. What are your thoughts?

This was my first visit to Jammu and Kashmir, and the most striking issue was the call for Statehood. People across communities—Muslims, Hindus, Kashmiri Pandits—all wanted Statehood because they felt they had lost opportunities, especially in terms of jobs. After the abrogation of Article 370, locals lost job protections, and the introduction of property taxes and other measures under the Lieutenant Governor’s rule further upset people. While infrastructure has improved, people feel they are losing their autonomy. So, despite their dissatisfaction, this time the NC was their best option.

The other significant factor was social engineering, especially in districts such as Rajouri and Poonch, where BJP made surprising gains. Historically, BJP barely got votes there, but this time they received 15,000 to 20,000 votes in some areas. They even received some minority votes because they granted ST status to certain groups. BJP isn’t afraid to try anything that might benefit them.

So, looking ahead, what are your big takeaways?

First, nothing comes easy: you need to work hard to win. Second, despite setbacks, BJP is still in a strong position nationally. In States such as Maharashtra and Jharkhand, they will face tough battles, but they have strengthened their position. Delhi will be another battleground, but BJP needs to align itself with a strong State leader to make gains.

In November, we have elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, and then early next year in Delhi. Beyond that, we have Bihar at the end of 2025. What is your forecast?

Over the next year and a half, aside from Maharashtra, the Congress is the second-ranked party in most states—such as Bihar, Delhi, and Jharkhand—so they need to focus on their regional alliances. Without these alliances, they risk continuing their decline. Congress and the opposition need to put up a united front. You need 40-45 per cent of the vote to beat the BJP in this era, and they need to expand their social base. Just counting OBCs won’t be enough: they need to offer something concrete to voters, such as jobs or education, to win back support.

Saba Naqvi is a Delhi-based journalist and author of four books who writes on politics and identity issues.