Laloo Prasad's worries

VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN

RASHTRIYA Janata Dal president Laloo Prasad Yadav was grim-faced all through the seven days when the short-lived National Democratic Alliance Government led by Nitish Kumar was in office. He was worried that the NDA would poach legislators of his party a nd of parties such as the Congress(I) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which had promised support to the RJD. Most observers were, however, surprised when he persisted with this posture even after Nitish Kumar resigned, admitting his inability to prove his majority in the Assembly and paving the way for Rabri Devi's swearing in. What continued to haunt him, according to RJD insiders, was the fact that it was for the first time in the last 10 years that Laloo Prasad's party faced the prospect of runnin g a coalition government. Besides, the Congress(I), the probable partner, had pulled down two United Front governments at the Centre.

The fact remains that at least six of the 23 Congress(I) MLAs are seriously anti-Laloo Prasad although they might not be able to precipitate a crisis immediately. The Congress(I)'s initial reaction when the RJD sought its cooperation was that it was read y to help if anybody other than Rabri Devi or Laloo Prasad became Chief Minister. In order to overcome this resistance, the RJD offered the Assembly speakership to the Congress(I). Still, the demand to remove Rabri Devi could come up from the Congress(I) later, especially if the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) named Rabri Devi as a co-accused in the disproportionate wealth case. Congress(I) members, whether they are in the Ministry or not, would not remain silent spectators in such a situation. As the party that propped up the government, the Congress(I) would consistently press for its pound of flesh. RJD insiders say that Laloo Prasad is apprehensive about Rabri Devi's ability to handle the Congress(I) diehards.

The Congress(I)'s other demand was that the RJD should agree to creating a Jharkhand state. After 10 years of humming and hawing on this issue, Laloo Prasad seems to have agreed to the statehood proposal, for now. He had stated in the Assembly that he wo uld support the creation of a separate state if the Central Government made the necessary moves immediately.

According to a senior RJD leader, Laloo Prasad's calculation is that the creation of a Jharkhand state would do away with a region where he does not have much political strength. This time RJD won only 17 of the 85 seats in this region against the NDA's tally of about 60.

Earlier Laloo Prasad Yadav opposed a Jharkhand state for two reasons. First, it would divest Bihar of an area rich in mineral resources. Secondly, the area where the Jharkhandi tribal people live is spread across four States - Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh - and Laloo Prasad asked why Bihar alone should be forced to suffer the problems relating to bifurcation. By all indications, Laloo Prasad is giving up these arguments for political reasons.

RJD insiders point out that Laloo Prasad is aware that the minority government he ran in 1990 and the present experiment are not similar in nature. The Janata Dal he led earlier had only 123 seats in the Assembly but the Government was propped up by the BJP, the CPI and the CPI(M), which had 39, 23 and six members respectively. That government lasted its full term, especially because Laloo Prasad had at that time a tremendous rapport with the Left parties. The equations are not so good now, and Rabri De vi as Chief Minister is by no means as inspiring as Laloo Prasad was.

The only plus point for the RJD in an otherwise grim scenario is that it has always been in the vanguard of the anti-BJP struggle in Bihar. Other parties, including the Congress(I) and the Left, are forced to support the RJD on this ground. RJD insiders say that it is not the first time that the Congress(I) has come to the rescue of their party. In February 1999, when Laloo Prasad's Government was dismissed, it was the Congress(I)'s refusal to cooperate with the Vajpayee Government in getting the presid ential order of dismissal ratified by the Rajya Sabha that helped the RJD come back to power.

According to Congress(I) leaders, if Laloo Prasad cares to remember the timely help from the Congress(I) and other parties, he should mend his "autocratic and aggressive" ways, show greater accommodation to friendly parties, and focus on development. Whe ther Laloo Prasad would live up to these expectations is yet to be seen.