In the maelstrom

As the echoes of America's war resound through the subcontinent, old tensions between India and Pakistan escalate and world leaders come calling.

SINCE the United States-led attacks on Afghanistan started in the first week of October, both New Delhi and Islamabad have been playing host to a series of important visitors from the West. The rise in tensions along the India-Pakistan border and the warlike rhetoric emerging from New Delhi and Islamabad have evidently alarmed Western leaders. The West wants to remain focussed on the "war against terror" but the escalating tension between India and Pakistan threatens to upset the fragile coalition supporting the American and British military action against Afghanistan. The recent visits by international leaders have been part of their effort to prevent a military flare-up along the Line of Control and get both sides to start talking again.

The most important visit was that of German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, on October 28. He had scheduled his visit to India much before the current international crisis erupted but had to add Pakistan to his itinerary, given the new-found status of Islamabad in Western capitals. The Indian government put out the welcome mat for three other important Western dignitaries between October 28 and November 2. They were Japanese special envoy Yoshiro Mori, French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine and Greek Foreign Minister George A. Papandreou. All the visiting leaders wanted the Indian government to resume the dialogue with Pakistan at the earliest.

Indo-German relations had shown an upswing in the past two years. India was also a favoured destination of German capital and technology and a large number of Indian software professionals were recruited by Germany. But Germany's priorities changed after September 11. The German Chancellor is one of the staunchest supporters of the U.S.' "war against terrorism", though unlike British Prime Minister Tony Blair he has not acted like a spokesman for U.S. President George W. Bush. Germany evidently sees the war as a long-drawn-out one. Home to a large immigrant population, it wants a coordinated international effort to combat terrorism.

Germany and other close allies of Washington are thinking of enforcing draconian immigration laws as part of their effort to curb international terrorism. Among the steps being envisaged is the finger-printing of passengers arriving at international airports in the West. According to a German official, that would make it extremely difficult for terrorists to travel on forged documents. He said that one of the terrorists involved in the attacks in New York had four different sets of identity papers.

German Interior Minister Otto Schilly, who was part of the delegation that visited New Delhi, met Home Minister L.K. Advani to discuss security-related matters. It was announced in New Delhi that both governments had agreed to share intelligence relating to terrorism. However, Schroeder's emphasis was on persuading India and Pakistan to resume bilateral talks.

Western leaders are not happy with the sabre-rattling by New Delhi and Islamabad in recent weeks. Belligerent statements emanated from both Islamabad and New Delhi around the time Schroeder visited the subcontinent. New Delhi has been trying to convince the visitors that the cross-border terrorism being actively encouraged by Pakistan is the main cause for the escalation of tension. At a joint press conference he addressed with Schroeder, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf said that he was all for resuming talks with New Delhi "by reviving the format" that both sides had agreed to at the Agra Summit. At the same time he accused India of trying to implement its "hegemonic" agenda and characterised Kashmir as the "core issue" bedevilling bilateral relations. Schroeder spoke repeatedly about the need for the speedy resumption of the dialogue process.

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee seemed reluctant to revive the dialogue process in a hurry. Addressing the media in the company of Schroeder, he virtually ruled out the possibility of holding talks with Musharraf for the next couple of months. The External Affairs Ministry's spokesperson told the media during the German leader's visit that talks with Pakistan could restart only after Islamabad created the "right atmosphere" and stopped aiding "cross-border terrorism".

When Schroeder was in South Asia, Herman Loidolt, the head of the United Nations Military Observer Group for India and Pakistan, told the media in Srinagar that the situation in Kashmir would become "more tense in the coming times, not only along the Line of Control but also in the whole of Jammu and Kashmir". He described the situation in the valley as "multi-layered". But what angered New Delhi was his observation that both India and Pakistan are "playing games with this tormented country". He was referring to Kashmir. The External Affairs Ministry summoned the official to New Delhi and demanded an explanation for his observations. He was reprimanded by his superiors in New York for speaking out of turn.

THE government's viewpoint on cross-border terrorism got only a lukewarm response from Yoshiro Mori, who was reportedly chosen as Japan's special emissary because of his rapport with the Indian leadership. In Japan, Mori is considered a political lightweight. He told the media in New Delhi that it was imperative for India and Pakistan to show "maximum restraint" as heightened tension would make the region even more unstable. He went on to add that he was not aware of the origins of "cross-border terrorism" and advised India not to take any "direct action" but help Washington and its allies to win the "war against terrorism".

Japan has utilised the war issue to pursue its own international goals. The government of Junichiro Koizumi has astutely used the crisis to get legislative approval, after a gap of more than 50 years, for the participation of Japanese troops for non-combat duties abroad. Japan's neighbours, who have had first-hand experience of its militarism, are warily watching the developments.

Even before Mori arrived in New Delhi, South Block was upset by the patronising tone adopted by the Japanese government while announcing the lifting of the sanctions against Pakistan and India. The sanctions were imposed in 1998 after the two countries conducted nuclear tests. The statement from Tokyo said that the sanctions were being lifted as they had promised not to conduct any further nuclear tests. However, the statement added that if the non-proliferation scenario in the region changes, Japan would reimpose sanctions. It also claimed that India and Pakistan had "stated that they would ensure strict controls of nuclear and missile-related goods and technologies. To that extent, Japan's measures have obtained due achievement".

Although there was no official reaction from the Indian government, External Affairs Ministry officials made it clear that they were far from happy with the tone and tenor of the Japanese government's statement.

Hubert Vedrine, who once characterised the U.S. as a "hyper power", told the media in New Delhi that France would like India and Pakistan to restart the stalled dialogue process so that the "substantive issues" between them could be resolved. He said that Kashmir had figured in the talks he held with External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh. "India should be aware of its role and responsibilities," he said. The message is that New Delhi should wait until the crisis in Afghanistan is resolved. Vedrine seems to have given New Delhi an assurance that a new government in Afghanistan would be a representative one. He said that the concept of a "moderate" Taliban was "perplexing" but added that the final choice of a government will have to be left to the Afghan people themselves. "The Pashtuns will have to be represented in any future government as the political process should involve all Afghans," said Vedrine. France, he said, favoured a political solution to the crisis.

Papandreou expressed similar views. He told the media in New Delhi that a post-Taliban set-up should be a broadbased one representing all sections of the people of Afghanistan. The Greek Foreign Minister described Pakistan as an "important" ally in the war against terrorism and said that all efforts should be aimed at fighting the global menace. The Greeks would also prefer to see an end to the tensions on the India-Pakistan border. He conceded that there was a need to delve deeper into the roots and history of terrorism. Papandreou is tipped to be the next Prime Minister of Greece.

The shuttle diplomacy of the Western leaders seems to have induced a change of mind in New Delhi. Indications are that Vajpayee will meet Musharraf in Kathmandu during the summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to be held in the first week of January. Washington would have preferred the two leaders to meet during the U.N. General Assembly meeting this month in New York. Both of them are scheduled to meet Bush separately. Jaswant Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Abdul Sattar are, however, likely to meet in New York in early November.

Meanwhile, both sides are accusing each other of provocative troop movements near the LoC. Vajpayee and Musharraf have both pledged, using colourful language in the process, to repulse any military action against their countries.

THERE are many people who feel that instead of giving unconditional support to the American-British assault on Afghanistan and exclusively focussing on cross-border terrorism, the Indian government should raise issues relevant to global terrorism when Western leaders visit India. For instance, President Bashar al Assad of Syria told Tony Blair in the first week of November in Damascus that the Syrian people "cannot accept what we see on the screen every day, hundreds of innocent civilians dying". He challenged the West to define the concept of "terrorism". Assad was particularly critical of the West labelling the Palestinians waging a struggle for independence as "terrorists" while condoning Israel's policy of occupation and violence. "Resisting occupation is an international right. An act of resistance is different from an act of terror," he told Blair. Assad was among the first Arab leaders to condemn the terrorist attacks on the U.S.

India, a founding-member of the Non-Aligned Movement, has not issued any statement condemning the killing of innocent children and women in Afghanistan by American and British planes.