DMK-TMC front set to sweep Tamil Nadu

N. RAM VENKATESH ATHREYA

THE Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-Tamil Maanila Congress front is set to win a minimum of 33 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu on the strength of 42.46 per cent of the popular vote (see Table 1). The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-Bharatiya Janata Party front will take no more than six seats at the maximum by garnering 30.43 per cent of the vote. Not unexpectedly, since the 1996 Lok Sabha (and Assembly) outcomes in Tamil Nadu were the makings of an extraordinary and hard-to-repeat popular wave, there is a significant decline in the vote share of the DMK-TMC combination - from 54.86 per cent to 42.46 per cent. This 12.4 percentage point decline, however, does not have as significant an impact on the seat position of the DMK-TMC front as it might have had in an essentially bipolar contest.

This is the main finding of the Frontline-Apt Research Group Pre-election Public Opinion Survey conducted in Tamil Nadu between February 3 and 7, 1998. The poll was conducted in 192 locations spread across 24 Assembly segments in four representative Lok Sabha constituencies; the sample size was 4,470.

There has been a modest to moderate Sonia effect in the Tamil Nadu electoral arena: this means the Congress(I) will turn in a better-than-expected performance which will bring it 13 per cent of the popular vote although not a single seat. However, by rendering the contest somewhat tripolar, the Congress(I)'s performance will actually accentuate the disproportionality effect in vote-to-seat conversion - in effect, ironically, increasing in a significant way the DMK-TMC front's share of the State's Lok Sabha seats.

Had the AIADMK entered into an alliance with the Congress(I), the electoral outcome might have been strikingly different in Tamil Nadu. Such an alliance would have made the contest bipolar, narrowed or even closed the gap between the two fronts, taken the BJP completely out of the reckoning, and put the TMC in a spot. What is clear is that Jayalalitha would have better served her party's electoral prospects by allying with a Sonia Gandhi-invigorated Congress(I) in the State. For the former Chief Minister, it is truly a case of mis(sed)alliance.

Although it is the TMC alliance that puts it on the big winning track, in its own right the State's ruling party, the DMK, is well placed with respect to popular opinion. Against an all-India background where the anti-incumbency factor reigns high in various States (by the evidence provided by several public opinion polls), in Tamil Nadu 50.18 per cent of voters surveyed feel the DMK Government has provided the State with "good governance". An emphatic 55.91 per cent of the respondents disapprove of the Congress(I) demand for the removal of the DMK Ministers from the Union Ministry on the basis of the Jain Commission's Interim Report.

There is an instructive contrast to the strong disapproval of the Jain Commission's Interim Report by Tamil Nadu voters. In response to a specific question which gave them a multiple choice, nearly 75 per cent of the respondents in the survey approved of the death sentence given to all the 26 accused who were brought to trial in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.

Frontline

The survey results indicate that Tamil Nadu voters have made up their minds at an early stage of the 1998 election campaign. The survey was conducted between February 3 and 7, and at that time just under 10 per cent of the respondents reported they were undecided on whom they were going to vote for. With many constituencies in the State due to go to the polls only on February 22, the swing of the undecided segment could change the result to a certain extent. It is probable that this process will favour the DMK-TMC front. In fact, if the assumption is made that the undecided segment of respondents will divide in the same proportion as in the rest of the sample, the DMK-TMC front could end up with 36 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats.

vis-a-visFrontline

What comes out clearly is that the DMK-TMC front draws sizable support from all age groups, with the support even greater in the younger age groups. Not surprisingly, the Congress(I) draws a greater proportion of support from the older age groups than it does from the younger groups. The AIADMK-BJP combine has about one-third support among age groups below 50 years but gets only 25 per cent from the age group 51-65 years.

The Apt Research Group has conducted public opinion polls, with a very high degree of predictive success, in Tamil Nadu since 1989. This Frontline-Apt Research Group opinion poll was conducted in four Lok Sabha constituencies and 24 Assembly segments in the State. The constituencies were selected to reflect electoral behaviour in the State: these four Lok Sabha constituencies have consistently matched the State's voting pattern since 1977. All six Assembly segments of each of the Lok Sabha constituencies were covered in this poll.

The pre-election poll was conducted at eight locations selected at random in each Assembly segment, totalling 192 locations. Respondents were selected at random from households and the final sample size was 4,470. Only eligible voters were interviewed.

A modified version of the Cube Law was applied by the Apt Research Group to the percentage of votes polled by the major fronts or parties to predict the tally of seats. The modified version of the Cube Law has been successfully tested against the actual results of all Assembly and Lok Sabha elections since 1977.