Polls, pollsters and politics

It is in the nature of electoral politics that politicians have to eat their words. Not only politicians, but pollsters as well.

Workers prepare poll campaign material of various parties at a workshop in Bangalore.-JAGADEESH NV/REUTERS

“Eating words has never given me indigestion.”

- Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

THE Prime Minister and his colleagues are going round the country stoking complacency. Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his disgruntled Deputy Prime Minister remind one of exhausted volcanoes. Their rhetoric is tired, their programmes have a pie-in-the-sky flavour, and the sources of their inspiration are drying up. `Feel good’ has been cremated without ceremony. `Shining India’ too has been buried.

It is in the nature of electoral politics that politicians have to eat their words. Not only politicians, but pollsters as well. Opinion polls and exit polls are having a field day. Different channels offer different projections. The satta bazaar is working overtime. This will go on until May 10.

Opinion polls can be spectacularly wrong. During the Assembly elections late last year, a well-known TV establishment categorically stated that in Rajasthan, the Congress would win 120 to 130 seats in a House of 200. When the results were announced, the exact opposite happened. The BJP, for the first time ever, crossed the 100-seat barrier and notched up 120 seats. The Congress side was equally spectacular. From 155, it came down to 56. The poll pundits made quite a meal of eating their words. No remorse, no regret. Business as usual.

Do polls - opinion and exit - make a difference? The Congress is not in favour of this particular electoral activity. The Election Commission has approved them.

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How much difference they make is arguable; that they do to some extent sway some voters. What is distinctive about India is that the Lok Sabha elections are being held in four phases. If we could organise voting to be finished in one day, then the polls would lose their clout. But a one-day poll would be logistically difficult to conduct. Maybe it will become a reality when advanced technologies would enable the voter to vote via the Internet. But Indian democracy is unique. There is no precedence in history for a “one billion democracy” going to the polls. That we are able to conduct elections on so vast a scale is no mean achievement. Actually, it is both astounding and miraculous. Equally impressive is the amazing fact that the outcome is accepted by every single candidate and party. This is so because the Election Commission inspires awe, respect, pride and hope.

Our democratic history is 56 years old. In 1947, India could have opted for a one-party system (several countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America have done so) or a presidential one. We did not. Gandhi, Nehru, Patel and Ambedkar opted for a democracy. However, it was Nehru who laid the foundation of a modern nation state. A nation state that was democratic, pluralistic, secular, humane and just. Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and P.V. Narasimha Rao consolidated and strengthened it. So have other non-Congress Prime Ministers with perhaps one exception.

No democracy is perfect because human beings are not perfect. E.M. Forster’s often quoted remark gives the reason for human failing. He stated that the human mind was “not a dignified organ”. This is responsible for the disasters human beings have inflicted on each other and on human kind. We are ill-equipped to deal satisfactorily with the human predicament.

Finally, a suggestion. There should be some consideration given to the voters - why inflict elections on them in the heat of April and May. The best time is between November and February. This has happened in the past, not once but several times.

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THE other day I was invited by Rajat Sharma to appear on his newly established channel - India TV. His recently completed studio in Noida takes one’s breath away. It is a fine example of a state-of-the-art creation. Perhaps there is nothing like it in India. India TV was launched on April 18. It is a 24-hour Hindi and current affairs channel. Tarun Tejpal, the courageous journalist of Tehelka fame, has joined Rajat Sharma and his creative wife Ritu. What is different about India TV? Its press release says that the channel will offer “responsible reporting supported by world class technology, fresh faces and an international outlook”. Rajat Sharma, a self-made man, is also against television trivialising serious matters. He himself is skilfully low-key while interviewing “fresh faces”. Yet he gives nothing away. He diligently does his homework and one has to be on guard the whole time.

He has opened branches in all the State capitals. He intends to go down to the district level soon.